Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-r5fsc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-20T13:26:55.910Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The double challenge of adapting to climate change while accelerating development in sub-Saharan Africa

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 October 2010

RASHID HASSAN
RASHID HASSAN*
Affiliation:
Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa (CEEPA), Room 2-6, Agricultural Annex, Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa. Tel: +27-12-4203317. Fax: +27-12-4204958. Email: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Accelerating economic growth and social development is necessary to reduce the vulnerability and enhance the adaptive capacity of sub-Saharan Africa to cope with the consequences of predicted unfavorable future climate. This requires major investments and policy reforms to induce a needed radical transformation of the way development is currently pursued to a more climate-sensitive path of low carbon growth. Key gaps in the current knowledge base that call for major investments and urgent attention include the ability to forecast more robust local future climate and to account for the uncertainties associated with climate risks for ecosystems' functions and probable nonconvexities in future impacts to project more plausible scenarios for future development in sub-Saharan Africa and provide better information on the costs and benefits of potential actions to avert the negative consequences of climate change.

Type
Research Article
Information
Environment and Development Economics , Volume 15 , Issue 6: 15 YEARS OF EDE – ADVANCES AND CHALLENGES IN ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS , December 2010 , pp. 661 - 685
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2010

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abraha, M.G. and Savage, M.J. (2006), ‘Potential impact of climate change on the grain yield of maize for the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa’, Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 115: 150–160.Google Scholar
Adams, R.M. (1999) ‘On the search for the correct economic assessment method-an editorial comment’, Climatic Change 41: 363–370.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Adger, N., Brooks, N., Kelly, M., Bentham, G., Agnew, M., and Eriksen, S. (2004), ‘New indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity’, Technical Report 7, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich.Google Scholar
Alliance and CCAFS (2009), Climate, Agriculture and Food Security: A Strategy for Change, Alliance of the CGIAR Centres, and the Challenge Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Rome, Italy.Google Scholar
Arrow, K., Dasgupta, P., Goulder, L., Daily, G., Ehrlich, P., Heal, G., Levin, S., Mäler, K.-G., Schneider, S., Starrett, D., and Walker, B. (2004) ‘Are we consuming too much?’, Journal of Economic Perspectives 18: 147–172.Google Scholar
Barrett, C., Lynam, J., and Place, F. (2002), ‘Towards improved natural resource management in African agriculture’, in Barrett, C. and Place, F., and Aboud, A.A. (eds), Natural Resources Management in African Agriculture: Understanding and Improving Current Practices, London: CABI Publishing.Google Scholar
Benson, C. and Clay, E. (1998), ‘The impact of drought on sub-Saharan economies’, World Bank Technical Paper 401, World Bank, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Brooks, N., Adger, W.N., and Kelly, P.M. (2005), ‘The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation’, Global Environmental Change 15: 151–163.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Calzadilla, A., Zhu, T., Rehdanz, K., Tol, R., and Ringler, C. (2009), ‘Economy-wide impacts of climate change on agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa’, IFPRI Discussion Paper 00873, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Chang, C.C. (2002), ‘The potential impact of climate change on Taiwan's agriculture’, Agricultural Economics 227: 51–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cooper, P., Dimes, J., Rao, K., Shapiro, B., Shiferaw, B., and Twomlow, S. (2008), ‘Coping better with current climatic variability in the rain-fed farming systems of sub-Saharan Africa: an essential first step in adapting to future climate change’, Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 126: 24–35.Google Scholar
Curriero, F.C., Heiner, K.S., Samet, J.M., Zeger, S.L., Strug, L., and Patz, J.A. (2002), ‘Temperature and mortality in 11 cities of the eastern United States’, American Journal of Epidemiology 155 (1): 80–87.Google Scholar
Darwin, R.F., Tsigas, M., Lewandrowski, J., and Raneses, A. (1995), ‘World agriculture and climate change: economic adaptations’, Agricultural Economic Report Number 703, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Dasgupta, P., (2007), ‘Comments on the Stern Review's economics of climate change’, The Journal of the Foundation for Science and Technology 19 (4): 16–17.Google Scholar
Dasgupta, P. (2008), ‘Discounting climate change’, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 37 (2–3): 141–169.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dell, M., Jones, B.F., and Olken, B.A. (2008), ‘Climate change and economic growth: evidence from the last half century’, Working Paper 14132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Deressa, T.T. and Hassan, R.M. (2009), ‘Economic impact of climate change on crop production in Ethiopia: evidence from cross-section measures, Journal of African Economies 18 (4): 529–554.Google Scholar
Deressa, T., Hassan, R., Alemu, T., Yesuf, M., and Ringler, C. (2009), ‘Determinants of farmers’ choice of adaptation methods to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia’, Global and Environmental Change 19: 248–255.Google Scholar
Deressa, T., Hassan, R., and Ringler, C. (2008), ‘Measuring Ethiopian farmers’ vulnerability to climate change across regional states’, IFPRI Discussion Paper 806, IFPRI, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Desanker, P.V. (2002), Impact of Climate Change on Africa, Charlottesville, VA: Center for African Development Solutions, Johannesburg, South Africa, and University of Virginia.Google Scholar
Deschenes, O. and Moretti, E. (2007), ‘Extreme weather events, mortality, and migration’, NBER Working Paper #13227, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
Dinar, A., Hassan, R., Mendelsohn, R., and Benhin, J. (2008), Climate Change and African Agriculture: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies, London: Earthscan.Google Scholar
Dolan, A.H., Smit, B., Skinner, M.W., Bradshaw, B., and Bryant, C.R. (2001), ‘Adaptation to climate change in agriculture: evaluation of options’, Occasional Paper 26, Department of Geography, University of Guelph.Google Scholar
Downing, T.E. (1992), ‘Climate change and vulnerable places: global food security and country studies in Zimbabwe, Kenya, Senegal and Chile’, Research Paper No. 1, Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford.Google Scholar
du Toit, A.S., Prinsloo, M.A., Durand, W., and Kiker, G. (2002), ‘Vulnerability of maize production to climate change and adaptation in South Africa’, Combined Congress of South African Society of Crop Protection and South African Society of Horticultural Science, Pietermaritsburg, South Africa.Google Scholar
Durand, W. (2006), ‘Assessing the impact of climate change on crop water use in South Africa’, CEEPA DP28, University of Pretoria, South Africa.Google Scholar
Easterling, W.E. III, Crosson, P.R., Rosenberg, N.J., McKenny, M.S., Katz, L.A., and Lemon, K.M. (1993), ‘Agricultural impacts of and response to climate change in the Missouri-Iowa-Nebraska-Kansas (MINK) region,’ Climate Research 24: 23–61.Google Scholar
Ferguson, J. (2006), Global Shadows: Africa in the Neoliberal World Order. Durham, NC: Duke University Press.Google Scholar
Few, R., Ahern, M., Matthies, F., and Kovats, S. (2004), ‘Floods, health and climate change: a strategic review’, Working Paper 63, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich.Google Scholar
Fischer, G. and van Velthuizen, H. (1996), ‘Climate change and global agricultural potential: a case of Kenya’, IIASA Working Paper WP-96–071, Laxenberg, Austria.Google Scholar
Gbetibouo, G.A., Hassan, R.M., and Ringler, C. (2010a), ‘Modeling farmers’ adaptation strategies to climate change and variability: the case of the Limpopo Basin, South Africa’, Agrekon 49 (2): 217–234.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gbetibouo, G.A., Ringler, C., and Hassan, R. (2010b), ‘South African farming sector vulnerability to climate change and variability: an indicator approach’, Natural Resources Forum 34: 175–87.Google Scholar
Hall, D.O. and Scrase, J.I. (2005), ‘Biomass energy in sub-Saharan Africa’, in Low, P.S. (ed.), Climate Change and Africa, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 107–112.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hamilton, J.M., Maddison, D.J., and Tol, R.S.J. (2005), ‘Effects of climate change on international tourism’, Climate Research 29: 245–254.Google Scholar
Hassan, R. (2010), ‘Implications of climate change for agricultural sector performance in Africa: policy challenges and research agenda’, Journal of African Economies 19: 77–105.Google Scholar
Hassan, R., Dinar, A. and Mendelsohn, R. (Eds) (2008), ‘Climate change and African agriculture’, African Journal Agriculture and Resource Economics 2 (1), special issue.Google Scholar
Hassan, R. and Nhemachena, C. (2008), ‘Determinants of climate adaptation strategies of African farmers: multinomial choice analysis’, African Journal Agriculture and Resource Economics 2 (1): 83–104.Google Scholar
Heal, G. (2008), ‘Climate economics: a meta-review and some suggestions’, NBER Working Paper 13927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
Hewitson, B.C. and Crane, R.G. (2006), ‘Consensus between GCM climate change projections with empirical downscaling: precipitation downscaling over South Africa’, International Journal of Climatology 26: 1315–1337.Google Scholar
Hulme, M., Doherty, R.M., Ngara, T., New, M.G., and Lister, D. (2001), ‘African climate change: 1900–2100’, Climate Research 17: 145–168.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
IAC (InterAcademy Council) Report (2004), ‘Realizing the promise and potential of African agriculture’, Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.Google Scholar
IEA (International Energy Association) (2002), World Energy Outlook 2002, Paris: OECD/IEA.Google Scholar
IEA (International Energy Agency) (2007), World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights, Paris: OECD/IEA.Google Scholar
Iglesias, A., Rosenzweig, C., and Pereira, D. (1999), ‘Agricultural impacts of climate change in Spain: developing tools for a spatial analysis’, Global Environmental Change 10: 69–80.Google Scholar
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2007a), Synthesis Report: Summary for Policy Makers, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2007b), Africa, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2007c), Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Fourth Assessment Report, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2007d), The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Jacob, B., Lefgren, L., and Moretti, E. (2007), ‘The dynamics of criminal behavior: evidence from weather shocks’, Journal of Human Resources 42 (3): 489–527.Google Scholar
Kelly, D.L., Kolstad, C.D., and Mitchell, G. (2005), ‘Adjustment costs from environmental change’, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 50 (3): 468–495.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kurukulasuriya, P. and Mendelsohn, R. (2008), ‘A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on African cropland’, African Journal Agriculture and Resource Economics 2 (1): 1–23.Google Scholar
Kurukulasuriya, P., Mendelsohn, R., Hassan, R. et al. (2006), ‘Will African agriculture survive climate change?’, World Bank Economic Review 20: 367–388.Google Scholar
Magadza, C.H.D. (1994), ‘Climate change, some likely multiple impacts in Southern Africa’, Food Policy 19 (2): 165–191.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Makadho, J.M. (1996), ‘Potential effects of climate change on corn production in Zimbabwe’, Climate Research 6 (2): 147–151.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
MEA (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment) (2005), Ecosystems and Human Well-Being. Synthesis, Washington, DC: World Resources Institute.Google Scholar
Mendelsohn, R., Morrison, W., Schlesinger, M.E., and Andronova, N.G. (2000), ‘Country-specific market impacts of climate change’, Climatic Change 45: 553–569.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mendelsohn, R., Nordhaus, W., and Shaw, D. (1994), ‘The impact of global warming on agriculture: a Ricardian analysis’, American Economic Review 84: 753–771.Google Scholar
Miguel, E., Satyanath, S., and Sergenti, E. (2004), ‘Economic shocks and civil conflict: an instrumental variables approach’, Journal of Political Economy 112 (4): 725–753.Google Scholar
Muchena, P. (1994), ‘Implications of climate change for maize yields in Zimbabwe’, in Rosenzweig, C. and Iglesias, A. (eds), Implications of Climate Change for International Agriculture: Crop Modeling Study, Washington, DC: US Environmental Protection Agency.Google Scholar
Nelson, G., Rosegrant, M., Koo, J., Robertson, R., Sulser, T., Zhu, T., Ringler, C., Msangi, S., Palaazo, A., Bakta, M., Magalhaes, M., Valmonte-Santos, R., Ewing, M., M., and Lee, D. (2009), ‘Climate change: impacts on agriculture and costs of adaptation’, Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.Google Scholar
New, M., Hewitson, B., Stephenson, D.B., Tsiga, A. et al. (2006), ‘Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over southern and west Africa’, Journal of Geophysical Research–Atmospheres 111, D14102.Google Scholar
Nhemachena, C., Hassan, R., and Kurukulasuriya, P. (2010), ‘Measuring the economic impact of climate change on African agricultural production systems’, Climate Change Economics 1 (1): 33–55.Google Scholar
Nordhaus, W. (1994), Managing the Global Commons, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Nordhaus, W. (2007), ‘The Stern Review of the economics of climate change’, Journal of Economic Literature 45 (3): 686–702.Google Scholar
OFDA/CRED (2010), ‘The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database’ [Online], www.emdat.be/database, accessed on July 15, 2010.Google Scholar
Parry, M., Arnell, N., Berry, P., Dodman, D., Fankhauser, S., Hope, C., Kovats, S., Nicholls, R., Satterthwaite, D., Tiffin, R., and Wheeler, T. (2009), Assessing the Costs of Adaptation to Climate Change: A Review of the UNFCCC and Other Recent Estimates, London: International Institute for Environment and Development and the Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College.Google Scholar
Patz, J.A. and Olson, S.H. (2006), ‘Climate change and health: global to local influences on disease risk’, Annals of Tropical Medicine and Parasitology 100: 535–549.Google Scholar
Pindyck, R. (2006), ‘Uncertainty in environmental economics’, Working Paper 12752, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
Reid, P. and Vogel, C. (2006), ‘Living and responding to multiple stressors in South Africa: glimpses from Kwazulu Natal’, Global Environmental Change 16: 195–206.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ricardo, D. (1817), The Principles of Political Economy and Taxation, London: John Murray.Google Scholar
Rosegrant, M., Msangi, S., Ringler, C., Sulser, T., Zhu, T., and Cline, S. (2008), ‘International model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade (IM-PACT): model description’, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Rosenzweig, C. and Parry, M.L. (1994), ‘Potential impacts of climate change on world food supply’, Nature 367: 133–138.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sachs, J.D. (2005), The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for our Time. New York: Penguin.Google Scholar
Sachs, J.D., McArthur, J.W., Schmidt-Traub, G., Kruk, C., Bahadur, M., Faye, M., and McCord, G. (2004), ‘Ending Africa's poverty trap’, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1: 117–240.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schulze, R., Meigh, J., and Horan, M. (2001), ‘Present and potential future vulnerability of eastern and southern Africa's hydrology and water resources’, South African Journal of Science 97: 150–160.Google Scholar
Seo, N. and Mendelsohn, R. (2008), ‘Animal husbandry in Africa: climate change impacts and adaptations’, African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 2 (1): 65–82.Google Scholar
Seo, N., Mendelsohn, R., Dinar, A., Hassan, R., and Kurukulasuriya, P. (2009), ‘A Ricardian analysis of the distribution of climate change impacts on agriculture across agro-ecological zones in Africa’, Environment and Resource Economics 43: 313–332.Google Scholar
Smit, B., Burton, I., Klein, R., and Wandel, J. (2000), ‘An anatomy of adaptation to climate change and variability’, Climatic Change 45: 223–251.Google Scholar
Stern, N. (2007), The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Stern, N. (2008), Key Elements of a Global Deal on Climate Change, London: The London School of Economics and Political Science.Google Scholar
Sterner, T. and Persson, M. (2007), ‘An even Sterner review: introducing relative prices into the discounting debate’, Discussion Paper 07–37, Resources for the Future, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Tadross, M.A., Hewitson, B.C., and Usman, M.T. (2005), ‘The interannual variability of the onset of the maize growing season over South Africa and Zimbabwe’ Journal of Climate 18: 3356–3372.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thornton, P. and Herrero, M. (2009), ‘The inter-linkages between rapid growth in livestock production, climate change, and impacts on water resources, land use, and deforestation’, International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thornton, P.K., Jones, P.G., Owiyo, T.M., Kruska, R.L., Herero, M., Kristjanson, P., Notenbaert, A., Bekele, N., Omolo, A. et al. (2006), ‘Mapping climate vulnerability and poverty in Africa’, Report to the Department for International Development, ILRI, Nairobi.Google Scholar
Tol, R. (2002), ‘Estimates of the damage costs of climate change. Part 1: Benchmark estimates’, Environmental and Resource Economics 21: 47–73.Google Scholar
UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) (2007), Climate Change: Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Adaptation in Developing Countries, Bonn, Germany: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.Google Scholar
Van de Steeg, J., Herrero, M., Kinyangi, J., Thornton, P., Rao, K., Stern, R., and Cooper, P. (2009), ‘The influence of current and future climate-induced risk on the agricultural sector in east and central Africa: sensitizing the ASARECA strategic plan to climate change’, Research Report No. 22, International Livestock Research Centre, Addis Ababa.Google Scholar
Weitzman, M. (1998), ‘Why the far-distant future should be discounted at its lowest possible rate’, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 36: 201–208.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weitzman, M. (2007), ‘A review of the Stern Review of the economics of climate change’, Journal of Economic Literature 45 (3): 703–724.Google Scholar
World Bank (2007), World Development Report 2008: Agriculture for Development, Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
World Bank (2008), Making Development Climate Resilient: A World Bank Strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa, Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
World Bank (2009), World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change, Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
World Bank (2010), The Costs to Developing Countries of Adapting to Climate Change: New Methods and Estimates, Washington, DC: The Global Report of the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change Study, Consultation Draft, World Bank.Google Scholar
Yohe, G.W. and Tol, R.S.J. (2008), ‘The Stern Review and the economics of climate change: an editorial essay’, Climatic Change 89: 231–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ziervogel, G., Cartwright, A., Tas, A., Adejuwon, J., Zermoglio, F., Shale, M., and Smith, B. (2008), ‘Climate change and adaptation in African agriculture’, unpublished manuscript, Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, Sweden.Google Scholar