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Does choice of drought index influence estimates of drought-induced rice losses in India?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 April 2020

Francisco Fontes Open the ORCID record for Francisco Fontes [Opens in a new window] ,
Ashley Gorst  and
Charles Palmer
Francisco Fontes*
Affiliation:
Monitoring and Analyzing Food and Agricultural Policies (MAFAP) program, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy
Ashley Gorst
Affiliation:
Vivid Economics Ltd., London, UK
Charles Palmer
Affiliation:
Department of Geography and Environment & Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected]
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Abstract

Drought events have critical impacts on agricultural production yet there is little consensus on how these should be measured and defined, with implications for drought research and policy. We develop a flexible rainfall-temperature drought index that captures all dry events and we classify these as Type 1 (above-average cooling degree days) and Type 2 droughts (below-average cooling degree days). Applied to a panel dataset of Indian districts over 1966–2009, Type 2 droughts are found to have negative marginal impacts comparable to those of Type 1 droughts. Irrigation more effectively reduces Type 2 drought-induced yield losses than Type 1 yield losses. Over time, Type 1 drought losses have declined while Type 2 losses have risen. Estimates of average yield losses due to Type 1 droughts are reduced by up to 27 per cent when Type 2 droughts are omitted. The associated ex-post economic costs in terms of rice production are underestimated by up to 124 per cent.

Keywords

agricultureclimatedroughtIndiarainfallricetemperature

JEL classification

Q10: General Q54: Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global Warming Q56: Environment and Development • Environment and Trade • Sustainability • Environmental Accounts and Accounting • Environmental Equity • Population Growth Q19: Other
Type
Research Article
Information
Environment and Development Economics , Volume 25 , Issue 5 , October 2020 , pp. 459 - 481
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s) (2020). Published by Cambridge University Press

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