Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-g8jcs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-22T14:03:34.363Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Keynesian Uncertainty and the Weight of Arguments

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 December 2008

Jochen Runde
Jochen Runde
Affiliation:
Cambridge University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

In Chapter 12 of the General Theory, on “The State of Long-Term Expectation,” Keynes writes: “It would be foolish, in forming our expectations, to attach great weight to matters which are very uncertain” (CW VII, p. 148). In a footnote to this sentence, Keynes points out that by “very uncertain” he does not mean the same as “very improbable” and refers to the chapter on “The Weight of Arguments” in his earlier Treatise on Probability (CW VIII, pp. 77–85). The purpose of this article, in the first place, is to provide an account of, and to sort out the relations between, Keynes's views on probability, uncertainty, and the weight of arguments.

Type
Essays
Information
Economics & Philosophy , Volume 6 , Issue 2 , October 1990 , pp. 275 - 292
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1990

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Anand, P. 1988. “Rational Choice Under Uncertainty.” Mimeo. Cambridge.Google Scholar
Arrow, K.J. 1951. “Alternative Approaches to the Theory of Choice in Risk-Taking Situations.” Econometrica 19:404–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bateman, B.W. 1987. “Keynes's Changing Concept of Probability.” Economics and Philosophy 3:97–120.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bateman, B.W. 1988. “G.E. Moore and J.M. Keynes: A Missing Chapter in the History of the Expected Utility Model.” American Economic Review 78:1098–106.Google Scholar
Carabelli, A. 1986. “On Keynes' Method.” Ph.D. Dissertation. Cambridge University.Google Scholar
Carnap, R. 1950. Logical Foundations of Probability. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Coddington, A. 1982. “Deficient Foresight: A Troublesome Theme in Keynesian Economics.” American Economic Review 72:480–87.Google Scholar
Cohen, L.J. 1985. “Twelve Questions about Keynes's Concept of Weight.” British Journal of the Philosophy of Science 37:263–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Deaton, A, and Meullbauer, J. 1980. Economics and Consumer Behaviour. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De Finetti, B. 1964. “Foresight: Its Logical Laws, Its Subjective Sources.” In Studies in Subjective Probability, edited by Kyburg, H. E. and Smokier, H. E., pp. 93–158. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
De Finetti, B. 1985. “Cambridge Probability Theorists.” The Manchester School, 53:348–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dow, A., and Dow, S. 1985. “Animal Spirits and Rationality.” In Keynes' Economics: Methodological Issues, edited by Lawson, T. and Pesaran, H., pp. 46–65. London: Croom Helm.Google Scholar
Einhorn, H.J., and Hogarth, R.M. 1987. “Decision Making Under Ambiguity.” In Rational Choice: The Contrast between Economics and Psychology, edited by Hogarth, R. M. and Reder, M. W., pp. 41–66. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Ellsberg, D. 1961. “Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 75:643–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gärdenfors, P. 1978. “On the Logic of Relevance.” Synthese 37:351–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gärdenfors, P., and Sahlin, N. 1982. “Unreliable Probabilities, Risk Taking, and Decision Making.” Synthese 53:361–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Garner, C.A. 1983. “‘Uncertainty' in Keynes’ General Theory: A Comment.” History of Political Economy 15:83–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hey, J.D. 1979. Uncertainty in Microeconomics. Oxford: Martin Robinson.Google Scholar
Hoogduin, L.U. 1985. “On the Difference Between Keynesian and Knightian and ‘Classical’ Analysis of Uncertainty and the Development of a More General Monetary Theory.” Mimeo. University of Groningen.Google Scholar
Jeffreys, H. 1939. Theory of Probability. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Keynes, J.M. 1971. “Activities: 1906–1914. India and Cambridge.” The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, vol. 15. London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Keynes, J.M. 1973. “The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money.” The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, vol. 7. London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Keynes, J.M. 1973. “Treatise on Probability.” The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, vol.8. London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Keynes, J.M. 1973. “The General Theory and After: Part II: Defence and Development.” The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, vol. 14. London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Keynes, J.M. 1973. “The General Theory and After: A Supplement.” The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, vol. 29. London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Kregel, J. A. 1987. Rational Spirits and the Past Keynesian Macrotheory of Microeconomics. de Economist 135:520–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lawson, T. 1985. “Uncertainty and Economic Analysis.” Economic Journal 95:909–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lawson, T. 1987. “The Relative/Absolute Nature of Knowledge and Economic Analysis.” Economic Journal 97:951–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lawson, T. 1988. “Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Analysis.” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 11:38–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lawson, T. 1989a. “Keynes and Rational Behaviour.” Mimeo. Cambridge University.Google Scholar
Lawson, T. 1989b. “Conventions, Rationality and Keynes.” Mimeo. Cambridge University.Google Scholar
Lawson, T., and Pesaran, H. (editors). 1985. Keynes' Economics: Methodological Issues. London: Croom Helm.Google Scholar
Levi, I. 1966. “On Potential Surprise.” Ratio 8:107–29.Google Scholar
Levi, I. 1967. Gambling With Truth: An Essay on Induction and the Aims of Science. London: Routledge & Kegan Paul.Google Scholar
Levi, I. 1972. “Potential Surprise in the Context of Enquiry.” In Uncertainty and Expectations in Economics: Essays in Honour of G.L.S. Shackle, edited by Carter, C. F. and Ford, J. L., pp. 213–36. Oxford: Basil Blackwell.Google Scholar
Lucas, R.E. 1981. Studies in Business Cycle Theory. Cambridge: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Machina, M.J. 1987. “Choice Under Uncertainty: Problems Solved and Unsolved.” Economic Perspectives 1:121–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meeks, J.G.T. 1978. “Keynes on the Rationality of the Investment Decision under Uncertainty.” Mimeo. Cambridge.Google Scholar
Meltzer, A.H. 1981. “Keynes's General Theory: A Different Perspective.” Journal of Economic Literature 19:36–64.Google Scholar
Minsky, H.P. 1975. John Maynard Keynes. New York: Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
O'Donnell, R.M. 1982. “Keynes: Philosophy and Economics (An approach to rationality and uncertainty).” Ph.D. Dissertation. Cambridge University.Google Scholar
Popper, K.R. 1959. The Logic of Scientific Discovery. London: Hutchinson.Google Scholar
Ramsey, P.P. 1926. “Truth and Probability.” Reprinted in Ramsey, F.P., 1931, The Foundations of Mathematics. London: Kegan Paul, Trench, Trubner & Co.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Runde, J.H. 1989. “Uncertainty and the Instability of Beliefs.” Mimeo. University of the Witwatersrand.Google Scholar
Rutherford, M. 1984. “Rational Expectations and Keynesian Uncertainty: A Critique.” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 6:377–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Savage, L.J. 1954. The Foundations of Statistics. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Savage, L.J. 1964. “The Foundations of Statistics Reconsidered. In Studies in Subjective Probability, edited by Kyburg, H.E. and Smokler, H.E., pp. 93–158. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Schoemaker, P.J.H. 1982. “The Expected Utility Model: Its Variants, Purposes, Evidence and Limitations.” Journal of Economic Literature 20:529–63.Google Scholar
Shackle, G.L.S. 1961. Decision, Order and Time. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Shackle, G.L.S. 1974. Keynesian Kaleidics. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press.Google Scholar
Shackle, G.L.S. 1979. Imagination and the Nature of Choice. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press.Google Scholar
Stohs, M. 1980. “‘Uncertainty’ in Keynes' General Theory.” History of Political Economy 12:372–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stohs, M. 1983. “‘Uncertainty’ in Keynes' General Theory: A Rejoinder.” History of Political Economy 15:87–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vicarelli, F. 1985. Keynes's Relevance Today. London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Watt, D.E. 1989. “Not Very Likely: A Reply to Ramsey.” British Journal of the Philosophy of Science 40:223–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weintraub, E.R. 1975. “Uncertainty and the Keynesian Revolution.” History of Political Economy 7:530–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar