Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-jkksz Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-27T18:46:17.337Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

ON DISCRETE SAMPLING OF TIME-VARYING CONTINUOUS-TIME SYSTEMS

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2009

Peter M. Robinson*
Affiliation:
London School of Economics
*
*Address correspondence to Peter M. Robinson, Department of Economics, London School of Economics, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE, United Kingdom; email: [email protected].

Abstract

We consider a multivariate continuous-time process, generated by a system of linear stochastic differential equations, driven by white noise, and involving coefficients that possibly vary over time. The process is observable only at discrete, but not necessarily equally-spaced, time points (though equal spacing significantly simplifies matters). Such settings represent partial extensions of ones studied extensively by A.R. Bergstrom. A model for the observed time series is deduced. Initially we focus on a first-order model, but higher-order models are discussed in the case of equally-spaced observations. Some discussion of issues of statistical inference is included.

Type
ARTICLES
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2009

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Bartlett, M.S. (1946) On the theoretical specification of sampling properties of autocorrelated time series. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Supplement 8, 2741.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bergstrom, A.R. (1966) Nonrecursive models as discrete approximations to systems of stochastic differential equations. Econometrica 34, 173182.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bergstrom, A.R. (1967) The Construction and Use of Economic Models. English University Press.Google Scholar
Bergstrom, A.R. (1976) Statistical Inference in Continuous -Time Economic Models. North-Holland.Google Scholar
Bergstrom, A.R. (1983) Gaussian estimates and structural parameters in higher-order continuous-time dynamic models. Econometrica 51, 117162.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bergstrom, A.R. (1984) Monetary fiscal and exchange rate policy in a continuous-time model of the United Kingdom. In Malgrange, P. & Muel, P. (eds.) Contemporary Macroeconomic Modelling, pp. 183206. Blackwell.Google Scholar
Bergstrom, A.R. (1988) The history of continuous-time econometric models. Econometric Theory 4, 365383.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bergstrom, A.R. & Nowman, B. (2007) A Continuous Time Econometric Model of the United Kingdom with Stochastic Trends. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coddington, E.A. & Levinson, N. (1955) Theory of Ordinary Differential Equations. McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Dahlhaus, R. (2000) A likelihood approximation for locally stationary processes. The Annals of Statistics 28, 17621794.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dunsmuir, W.T.M. (1983) A central limit theorem for estimation in Gaussian stationary time series observed at unequally spaced times. Stochastic Processes and their Applications 14, 279295.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Friedman, A. (1975) Stochastic Differential Equations and Applications. Academic Press.Google Scholar
Hallin, M. (1978) Mixed autoregressive-moving average multivariate processes with time-dependent coefficients. Journal of Multivariate Analysis 8, 567572.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kitagawa, G. & Gersch, W. (1985) A smoothness priors time-varying AR coefficient modeling of nonstationary covariance time series. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control AC-30, 4855.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Melard, G. & Herteleer-de-Schutter, A. (1989) Contributions to evolutionary spectral theory. Journal of Time Series Analysis 10, 4163.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nicholls, D. & Quinn, B.G. (1980) The estimation of random coefficient autoregressive models I. Journal of Time Series Analysis 1, 3746.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Phillips, A.W. (1959) The estimation of parameters in systems of stochastic differential equations. Biometrika 46, 6776.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Phillips, P.C.B. (1973) The problem of identification in finite parameter continuous time models. Journal of Econometrics 1, 351362.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Phillips, P.C.B. (1974) The estimation of some continuous time models. Econometrica 42, 803823.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Phillips, P.C.B. & Yu, J. (2005a) Jackknifing bond option prices. Review of Financial Studies 18, 707742.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Phillips, P.C.B. & Yu, J. (2005b) Comments: A selective overview of nonparametric methods in financial econometrics. Statistical Science 20, 338343.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Phillips, P.C.B. & Yu, J. (2006) Maximum likelihood and Gaussian estimation of continuous time models in finance. Working paper, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics.Google Scholar
Robinson, P.M. (1976) The estimation of linear differential equations with constant coefficients. Econometrica 44, 751764.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Robinson, P.M. (1977a) The construction and estimation of continuous time models and discrete approximations in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics 6, 173197.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Robinson, P.M. (1977b) Estimation of a time series model from unequally spaced data. Stochastic Processes and their Applications 6, 924.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Robinson, P.M. (1989) Nonparametric estimation of time-varying parameters. In Hackl, P. (ed.), Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Economic Structural Change pp. 253264. Springer-Verlag.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sargan, J.D. (1974) Some discrete approximations to continuous time stochastic models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 36, 7490.Google Scholar
Soong, T.T. (1973) Random Differential Equations in Science and Engineering. Academic Press.Google Scholar
Subba Rao, T. (1970) The fitting of non-stationary time-series models with time-dependent parameters. Journal of the Royal Society B 32, 312322.Google Scholar
Walker, A.M. (1950) Note on a generalization of the large sample goodness of fit test for linear autoregressive schemes. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 12, 102107.Google Scholar