Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-t8hqh Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-21T22:47:58.910Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The ET Interview: Professor J. Tinbergen

Part of: ET Interviews

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 February 2009

Jan R. Magnus  and
Mary S. Morgan
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Jan Tinbergen is one of the founding fathers of econometrics, publishing in the field from 1927 until the early 1950s. This was the frontier age of econometrics when the distinction between mathematical economics and econometrics, let alone between theoretical and applied econometrics, did not yet exist. Tinbergen's approach to economics has always been a practical one. This was highly appropriate for the new field of econometrics, and enabled him to make important contributions to conceptual and theoretical issues, but always in the context of a relevant economic problem. The development of the first macroeconometric models, the solution of the identification problem, and the understanding of dynamic models are perhaps his three most important legacies to econometrics. Tinbergen was awarded the first Nobel Memorial Prize in economics in 1969 (jointly with Ragnar Frisch) for his contributions to econometrics.

Tinbergen's desire to communicate his ideas to others is matched by a talent for clear and direct writing. This gives his econometric work great appeal and an apparent simplicity which should not be underestimated. This talent was also fruitfully applied to the development of pedagogical tools for teaching econometrics to his students.

Since the early 1950s Tinbergen's interests have moved on and he has made notable contributions to such diverse fields as the theory of economic policy, development planning, and income distribution. Tinbergen's political and pacifist views have always been an important element in his economics, and even, as this interview shows, his econometrics. His overriding aim has been to improve the welfare of the less fortunate in this world.

It is now 60 years since Tinbergen's first article in economics appeared, yet he shows no signs of retiring. We met him on May 27, 1986, in the study of his house in The Hague, where he has lived for most of his working life and which bears the hallmarks of continued study and writing. Most of the discussion during the afternoon concerned his econometric work published in the 1930s and 1940s. He gave us his views of those early developments—both what he thought then and how he sees them now. What follows is an edited transcript of the conversation. We hope that this interview will bring alive to the readers of the 1980s the issues and difficulties faced by econometricians in the 1930s, as well as Tinbergen's characteristic response to those problems. One of Tinbergen's attributes is a considerable modesty about his own achievements; the reader should bear this in mind when reading his remarks.

Type
Other
Information
Econometric Theory , Volume 3 , Issue 1 , February 1987 , pp. 117 - 142
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1987

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1. Grondproblemen der Theoretische Statistiek. 1936 Haarlem: F. Bohn.Google Scholar
2. An Econometric Approach to Business Cycle Problems. 1937 Paris: Hermann and Cie, (A version of the Dutch Model in English; the original paper is available in English in [7].)Google Scholar
3. Statistical Testing of Business Cycle Theories. Vol. I: A Method and its Application to Investment Activity. Vol II: Business Cycles in the United States of America, 1919–1932. 1939 Geneva: League of Nations.Google Scholar
4. Econometrie. Gorinchem. (A textbook, in English as Econometrics. 1941 London: Allen and Unwin, 1951. Also in five other languages.)Google Scholar
5. Economische Bewegingsleer, 1942 Amsterdam: North Holland. (In English with Polak J. J. as Dynamics of Business Cycle Analysis. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul Ltd., 1950.)Google Scholar
6. Business Cycles in the United Kingdom 1870–1914. 1951 Amsterdam: North Holland.Google Scholar
7. Jan Tinbergen—Selected Papers. 1959 (Eds.) Klaassen, L. H., Koyck, L. M., and Witteveen, H. J. Amsterdam: North Holland.Google Scholar
8. Over de mathematies-statistiese methoden van konjunktuur-onderzoek. De Economist 1927 76: 711–723.10.1007/BF02229975Google Scholar
9. Opmerkingen over ruiltheorie. De Socialistische Gids 1928 13: 539–548.Google Scholar
10. Het ekonomiese getij. De Socialistische Gids 1929 14: 849–858.Google Scholar
11. Bestimmung und Deutung von Angebotskurven. Ein Beispiel. Zeitschrift für Nationalökonomie 1930 1: 669–679. (English Summary, pp. 798–799.)10.1007/BF01318500CrossRefGoogle Scholar
12. Scheepsbouw en conjunctuurverloop. De Nederlandsche Conjunctuur 1931 March: 14-23.Google Scholar
13. Ein Schiffbauzyklus? Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 1931 34: 152–164. (In [7] in English: A ship building cycle?)Google Scholar
14. The notion of horizon and expectancy in dynamic economics. Econometrica 1933 1: 247–264.10.2307/1907039CrossRefGoogle Scholar
15. Der Einfluss der Kaufkraftregulierung auf den Konjunkturverlauf. Zeitschrift für National-okonomie 1934 5: 289–319.Google Scholar
16. With Buys, B.G.F. Scheepsruimte en vrachten. De Nederlandsche Conjunctuur 1934 03: 23–35. (In [7] in English, Tonnage and Freight.)Google Scholar
17. With Methorst, H. W. Les recherches relatives a la conjuncture au Bureau Central de Statistique des Pays-Bas. Revue de Plnstitut International de Statistique 1934 2: 37–55.10.2307/1401013Google Scholar
18. Annual Survey: Suggestions on quantitative business cycle theory. Econometrica 1935 3: 241–308.10.2307/1905323CrossRefGoogle Scholar
19. Sur la détermination statistique de la position d'équilibre cyclique. Revue de l'lnstitut International de Statistique 1936 4: 173–189.10.2307/1400721Google Scholar
20. Über die Sekundärwirkungen zusätzlicher Investitionen. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 1937 45: 39–57.Google Scholar
21. Review of Harrod, R. F. The Trade Cycle. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 1937 (Schrifttum) 45: 89–91.Google Scholar
22. On the theory of business cycle control. Econometrica 1938 6: 22–39.10.2307/1910082Google Scholar
23. Statistical evidence on the acceleration principle. Economica 1938 5: 164–176.10.2307/2549019Google Scholar
24. Vertragingsgolven en levensduurgolven. In Strijdenskracht door Wetensmacht, Opstellen aangeboden aan S. de Wolff, ter gelegenheid van zijn 60e verjaardag. 1938 Amsterdam. (In [7] in English, Lag cycles and life cycles.)Google Scholar
25. The dynamics of share-price formation. Review of Economics and Statistics 1939 9: 153–160.Google Scholar
26. With de Wolff, P. A simplified model of the causation of technological unemployment. Econometrica 1939 7: 193–207. (Also in [7].)Google Scholar
27. A Reply. Economic Journal 1940 50: 141–154. (Reply to Keynes' review of [3] Vol. I.)Google Scholar
28. Econometric business cycle research. Review of Economic Studies 1940 7: 73–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
29. Unstable and indifferent equilibria in economic systems. International Statistical Review 1941 9: 36–50.10.2307/1400943Google Scholar
30. An acceleration principle for commodity stockholding and a short cycle resulting'from it. In Lange, O. et al. (eds): Studies in Mathematical Economics and Econometrics. 1942 Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
31. Critical remarks on some business-cycle theories. Econometrica 1942 10: 129–146.10.2307/1905785CrossRefGoogle Scholar
32. Does consumption lay behind incomes? The Review of Economics and Statistics 1942 24: 1–8.Google Scholar
33. Zur theorie der langfristigen Wirtschaftsentwicklung. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 1942 55: 511–549. (In [7] in English, On the theory of trend movements.)Google Scholar
34. Ligevaegtstyper og konjunkturbevaelgelse. Nordisk Tidsskrift for Teknisk Økonomi 1944 10: 45–63. (In [7] in English, Types of equilibrium and business-cycle movements.)Google Scholar
35. The use of correlation analysis in economic research. Ekonomisk Tidskrift 1947 49: 173–192.10.2307/3438008CrossRefGoogle Scholar
36. Long-term foreign trade elasticities. Metroeconomica 1949 1: 174–185. (Also in [7].)10.1111/j.1467-999X.1949.tb00041.xGoogle Scholar
37. The reformulation of current business cycle theories as refutable hypotheses. In Conference on Business Cycles. 1950 New York, NBER Special Conference Series No. 2.Google Scholar
38. Review of Klein, L. Economic Fluctuations in the United States 1921–1941. Zeitschrift fur Oekonometrie 1951 1: 93–96.Google Scholar
39. Comments on Orcutt, G. H. Towards partial redirection of econometrics. The Review of Economics and Statistics 1952 34: 205–206.10.2307/1925626CrossRefGoogle Scholar
40. De economist en net sociale vraagstuk. De Economist 1952 100: 1010–1024.Google Scholar
41. De quelques problèmes posés par le concept de structure économique. Revue d'Économie Politique 1952 42: 27–46.Google Scholar
42. Minimumproblemen in de natuurkunde en de ekonomie. 1929 (Minimum problems in Physics and in Economics.) Amsterdam: J. H. Paris. (Doctoral Thesis, Leiden.)Google Scholar
43. On the Theory of Economic Policy. 1952 Amsterdam: North Holland.Google Scholar
44. The Design of Development. 1958 Published for the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins Press.Google Scholar
45. Sur un modèle de la dispersion géographique de 1'activité économique. Revue d'Économie Politique 1964 74: 30–44.Google Scholar
46. Spardefizit und Handelsdefizit. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 1965 95: 89–101.Google Scholar
47. With Bos, H. C. A Planning Model for the Educational Requirements of Economic Development. In Econometric Models of Education 1965 Paris: OECD.Google Scholar
48. Income Distribution: Analysis and Policies. 1975 Amsterdam: North Holland.Google Scholar
49. With Fischer, D. Warfare and Welfare. Integrating Security Policy into Socio-Economic Policy. 1987 Brighton: Wheatsheaf Books.Google Scholar
50. Bos, H. C. Jan Tinbergen. International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences, Biographical Supplement, 18 (1979): 766–770. New York, The Free Press.Google Scholar
51. Hansen, B. Jan Tinbergen: An appraisal of his contributions to economics. Swedish Journal of Economics. 71 (1969): 325–336.10.2307/3439115Google Scholar
52. Tinbergen, J. Recollections of Professional Experiences. Banco Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review 32 (1979): 331–360.Google Scholar
53. de Wolff, P. Tinbergen's contribution to business-cycle theory and policy. De Economist 118 (1970): 112–125.10.1007/BF01712795Google Scholar
54. Bibliography of Jan Tinbergen. In [7]. (For the period up to 1959 covering most of his work in econometrics.)Google Scholar
55. Derksen, J.B.D. Aanvullingen bij de bibliographic van J. Tinbergen. De Economist 107 (1959): 798–799. (Additions to [54].)Google Scholar
56. Pronk, J. P. Bibliography 1959–1969 of Professor Dr. J. Tinbergen. DeEconomist 118 (1970): 155–173 (Additions to this and information for the period from 1970 is available, in unpublished form, from C. J. van Opijnen, Centre for Development Planning, Erasmus University, P. O. Box 1738, 30000 DR Rotterdam.)Google Scholar