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A successful stress-forecast: an addendum to ‘Stress-forecasting: a viable alternative to earthquake prediction in a dynamic Earth’

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 November 2011

Stuart Crampin
Stuart Crampin
Affiliation:
Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Edinburgh, Grant Institute, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JW, Scotland, U.K. e-mail: [email protected]
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Extract

In a recent issue of this journal, Crampin (1998) suggested that analysing seismic shear-wave splitting along appropriate ray paths can be used to monitor the build-up of stress before earthquakes. If the source and recording geometry are suitable, this procedure, known as stress-forecasting, allows the approximate time and magnitude, but not the location, of future large earthquakes to be estimated.

Keywords

forecasting earthquakesfracture criticalityshear-wave splittingstress-monitoring sites.
Type
Research Article
Information
Earth and Environmental Science Transactions of The Royal Society of Edinburgh , Volume 89 , Issue 4 , 1998 , pp. 231
Copyright
Copyright © Royal Society of Edinburgh 1998

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References

Crampin, S. 1998. Stress-forecasting: a viable alternative to earthquake prediction in a dynamic Earth. Transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh: Earth Sciences 89, 121-33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crampin, S. 1999. Techniques for stress-forecasting time and magnitude of large earthquakes in stress-monitoring sites, Patent Application 9906893. 4, 26 March 1999.Google Scholar
Crampin, S., Volti, T. & Stefánsson, R. 1999. A successfully stressforecast earthquake. Geophysical Journal International 138, F1–F5.Google Scholar
Stefansson, R., Bödvarsson, R., Slunga, R., Einarsson, P., Jakobsdottir, S., Bungum, H., Gregerson, S., Havskov, J., Hjelme, J. & Korhonen, H. 1993. Earthquake prediction research in the South Iceland seismic zone and the SIL Project. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 83, 696–716.Google Scholar