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X. An Examination of some Questions connected with Games of Chance

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 January 2013

Extract

The questions which I propose to examine in the following paper, although not themselves dependent on chance, have arisen entirely from games in which it predominates. To determine some method of betting upon a number of successive events, (and the probability of each of which is either equal to, or less than one-half,) by which a profit shall be realised after a considerable number of them have been decided, is a problem which has occupied the attention, and exhausted the efforts, of one set of speculators, as completely as that of the quadrature of the circle has defeated the labours of another. The first and most simple plan, is that of doubling the stake whenever a loss occurs. This is well known, and has been so frequently practised, as to have acquired a peculiar name; it is technically called the martingal; it requires for its success, that the person who employs it have the power of leaving off whenever he please, and that he have the command of an unlimited capital. If the chance of the events happening is one-third instead of one-half, the stake must be tripled.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Royal Society of Edinburgh 1823

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References

page 170 note * The language of analysis is so much more general than that in which we usually convey our thoughts, that it is almost impossible to make the latter keep pace with the former. This is more particularly manifest when we are treating of games of chance. The words profit, winning, gain, &c. must, if we wish to avoid perpetual repetition, frequently be understood to comprehend their very opposites.

page 174 note * This notation has been employed by Mr Herschel, in a paper in the Philosophical Transactions for the year 1818 on circulating functions.