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The Effect of Ambient Temperature on Infectious Diarrhea and Diarrhea-like Illness in Wuxi, China

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 November 2020

Yumeng Gao ,
Yujun Chen ,
Ping Shi ,
Qi Zhang ,
Cheng Qian ,
Yong Xiao ,
Weihong Feng ,
Yuan Shen Open the ORCID record for Yuan Shen [Opens in a new window]  and
Chao Shi
Yumeng Gao
Affiliation:
Department of Disease Control, Wuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, China
Yujun Chen
Affiliation:
Department of Disease Control, Wuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, China
Ping Shi
Affiliation:
Department of Disease Control, Wuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, China
Qi Zhang
Affiliation:
Department of Disease Control, Wuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, China
Cheng Qian
Affiliation:
Department of Disease Control, Jiangyin Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, China
Yong Xiao
Affiliation:
Laboratory, Wuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, China
Weihong Feng
Affiliation:
Laboratory, Wuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, China
Yuan Shen*
Affiliation:
Department of Disease Control, Wuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, China
Chao Shi*
Affiliation:
Department of Disease Control, Wuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, China
*
Correspondence to Chao Shi and Yuan Shen, 499 Jin Cheng Road, Wuxi214023, Jiangsu Province, China. (telephone: +86 0510 85727331; fax: +86 0510 85727331; e-mail: [email protected] (CS); [email protected] (YS)).
Correspondence to Chao Shi and Yuan Shen, 499 Jin Cheng Road, Wuxi214023, Jiangsu Province, China. (telephone: +86 0510 85727331; fax: +86 0510 85727331; e-mail: [email protected] (CS); [email protected] (YS)).
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Abstract

Background:

The disease burden of infectious diarrhea cannot be underestimated. Its seasonal patterns indicate that weather patterns may play an important role and have an important effect on it. The objective of this study was to clarify the relationship between temperature and infectious diarrhea, and diarrhea-like illness.

Methods:

Distributed lag non-linear model, which was based on the definition of a cross-basis, was used to examine the effect.

Results:

Viral diarrhea usually had high incidence in autumn-winter and spring with a peak at -6°C; Norovirus circulated throughout the year with an insignificant peak at 8°C, while related bacteria usually tested positive in summer and peaked at 22°C. The lag-response curve of the proportion of diarrhea-like cases in outpatient and emergency cases revealed that at -6°C, with the lag days increasing, the proportion increased. Similar phenomena were observed at the beginning of the curves of virus and bacterial positive rate, showing that the risk increased as the lag days increased, peaking on days 16 and 9, respectively. The shape of lag-response curve of norovirus positive rate was different from others, presenting m-type, with 2 peaks on day 3 and day 18.

Conclusion:

Weather patterns should be taken into account when developing surveillance programs and formulating relevant public health intervention strategies.

Keywords

infectious diarrheadiarrhea-like illnessambient temperaturedistributed lag non-linear model (DLNM)
Type
Original Research
Information
Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness , Volume 16 , Issue 2 , April 2022 , pp. 583 - 589
Copyright
© 2020 Society for Disaster Medicine and Public Health, Inc.

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