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Probabilité conditionnelle et certitude*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 April 2010

Bas C. Van Fraassen
Bas C. Van Fraassen
Affiliation:
Princeton University
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Abstract

Personal probability is now a familiar subject in epistemology, together with such more venerable notions as knowledge and belief. But there are severe strains between probability and belief; if either is taken as the more basic, the other may suffer. After explaining the difficulties of attempts to accommodate both, I shall propose a unified account which takes conditional personal probability as basic. Full belief is therefore a defined, derivative notion. Yet we will still be able to picture opinion as follows: my subjective probability is only a grading of the possibilities left open by my beliefs. My conditional probabilities generally derive — in a sense to be explicated — from the strongest belief I can maintain when admitting the relevant condition.

Type
Articles and Interventions/Articles et Discussions
Information
Dialogue: Canadian Philosophical Review / Revue canadienne de philosophie , Volume 36 , Issue 1 , Winter 1997 , pp. 69 - 90
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Philosophical Association 1997

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