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Does Jack Goldstone's Model of Early Modern State Crises Apply to Russia?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 April 2012

Chester Dunning
Chester Dunning
Affiliation:
Texas A and M University
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Extract

In 1991 Jack A. Goldstone published an important book, Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World, in which he boldly charted a new way to explain the basic causes of revolution throughout Eurasia from the sixteenth to the nineteenth centuries. Goldstone attempts to explain the periodic waves of early modern state crises, rebellions, and civil wars in widely divergent cultures and geographic settings by developing an intriguing model of state breakdowns which he applies primarily to England, France, the Ottoman Empire, and China. Goldstone views the crises of large agrarian absolute monarchies mainly as the result of a single basic process: prolonged population growth in the context of relatively inflexible economic and social structures, eventually resulting in rapid price inflation, sudden shifts in resources, and rising social demands on a scale that most agrarian-based bureaucratic states found overwhelming. Simply put, long-term population and price in-creases have helped push rigid political, economic, and social institutions into crisis. Since the publication of Goldstone's work, there has been a positive response to it from many historians and social scientists. So far, however, no one has attempted to test Goldstone's model by applying it to a state break-down which the author did not include in his study. In my own research I have discovered that Goldstone's model may apply to Russia even though he did not focus on it. In this article I hope to demonstrate that his work helps explain Russia's Time of Troubles (1598–1613) and that the Russian test case helps validate Goldstone's model as an important contribution to comparative history.

Type
CSSH Discussion
Information
Comparative Studies in Society and History , Volume 39 , Issue 3 , July 1997 , pp. 572 - 592
Copyright
Copyright © Society for the Comparative Study of Society and History 1997

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References

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9 Skrynnikov, Smuta v Rossii, 3. Many historians refer to the dynastic wars in Muscovy during the reign of Grand Prince Vasilii II (r. 1425–62) as a “civil war.” Whatever label one uses, those conflicts occurred before the unification of Russia in the late fifteenth and early sixteenth centuries and before the establishment of the Russian empire by Ivan IV. The term civil war has. of course, been used occasionally to describe events of the Time of Troubles ever since the early seventeenth century. (See, for example, de la Ville, Pierre, Discours sommaire de ce qui est arrivé en Moscovie depuis le règne de Juan Vassilyvich Empereur, jusques a Vassily Juanovits Sousky [Paris: Frank, A., 1859], 9Google Scholar; Massa, Isaak, Kratkoe izvestie o Moskovii v nachale XVII v. (Moscow: Gosudarstvennoe sotsial'no-ekonomicheskoe izdatel'stvo, 1937), 151Google Scholar.) Even some Soviet scholars, inspired by Lenin's pronouncement that peasant wars were the civil wars of the feudal period and the highest form of class struggle against serfdom, applied the term civil war to the Time of Troubles. Despite the use of the term, however, they still regarded the uprisings of that period essentially as a social revolution. See, for example, Smirnov, I. I. et al. Krest'ianskie voiny v Rossii XVII-XVIII vv. (Moscow-Leningrad: Nauka, 1966), 307–9Google Scholar; Nazarov, Vladislav, “The Peasant Wars in Russia and their Place in the History of the Class Struggle in Europe,” in The Comparative Historical Method in Soviet Mediaeval Studies (Moscow, 1979), 115–6, 136–9Google Scholar; Cherepnin, L. V., Voprosy metodologii istoricheskogo issledovaniia (Moscow: Nauka, 1981), 153, 159, 164–5, 213, 225, 258Google Scholar.

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57 Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion, 31–35. 102–23, 425.

58 Ibid., 20–21, 24. 109. 460–2.

59 Ibid., 7–8. 34, 133–4, 460. 464.

60 Ibid., xxiii–xxiv, 8–11, 24, 35, 70–77, 126, 133, 346, 462.

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69 Man'kov, A. G., Tseny i ikh dvizhenie v russkom gosudarstve XVI veka (Moscow-Leningrad: AN SSSR, 1951), 6, 32–33, 40–41. 53. 99–101Google Scholar. Others have estimated that the increase in livestock prices in the sixteenth century was on the order of 300 percent. See Smith, Peasant Farming, 237.

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