* I would like to thank the members of the Wheat Studies Delegation for their comments. They are Dr Robert H. Busch (Department of Agronomy, North Dakota State University), Dr R. James Cook (Department of Plant Pathology, Washington State University), Dr Lloyd E. Eastman (Department or History, University of Illinois), Dr Virgil A. Johnson – Delegation Leader (Department of Agronomy, University of Nebraska), Dr Warren E. Kronstad (Department of Agronomy, Oregon State University), Dr Dale N. Moss (Department of Agronomy and Plant Genetics, University of Minnesota), Dr Robert A. Olson (Department of Agronomy, University of Nebraska), Dr Y. Pomeranz (U.S. Grain Marketing Research Center, Manhattan, Kansas), Dr Peter Schran (Department of Economics, University of Illinois). In particular, I want to thank Dr Dennis Chinn of the Food Research Institute (Stanford University) and Dr Thomas B. Wiens of Mathematica, Inc. for comments on early drafts which eliminated errors. I take full responsibility for those that remain.

1. The famous agricultural text, the Ch'i-min yao-shu, sets forth these dry farming techniques. For a good discussion of this text see Amano Motonosuke, Chūgoku konō shokō (A Survey of Old Agricultural Texts of China) (Tokyo: Ryukei Shosha, 1975), pp. 29–41.Google Scholar

2. Ch'ien, Nien-ts'eng, Kuo, Shu-fan, Chen, Hung-yu, and Chao, Li-chiu (comp.), Hsiao-mai (Wheat) (Shanghai: Hsin-chih-shih ch'u-pan she, 1956), p. 1.Google Scholar

3. Chang, Yu-i (comp.), Chung-kuo chin-tai nung-yeh shih tsu-liao (Materials on Modern Chinese Agricultural History) (Peking: San-lien shu-tien, 1957), Vol. 2, p. 673.Google Scholar

4. Derived by multiplying the yield of 1949 by the 1957 wheat sown area and then subtracting from the recorded 1957 output.Google Scholar

5. Ross, H. Munro, “China steps up wheat buying, order total put at $550 million,” New York Times, 10 03 1977.Google Scholar

6. Kagaku sangyō kagaku kenkyūjo (Kagaku nōji shikenjo), Hoku-Shi Mōkyō no sakubutsu ni tsuite (Crops of North China and Mongolia) (Peking, 1943), p. 19.Google Scholar

7. Kozawa, Jōji, Kōga ryūiki ni okeru nōgyō keitai no keizai chiriteki kōsatsu (An Economic Geographical Study of the Agrarian Structure of the Yellow River Basin) (Tokyo, 1939), p. 42.Google Scholar

8. Kōain, , Hoku-Shi komugi no hinshitsu oyobi jukyō ni kansuru chōsa (A Study of the Quality of Wheat and its Supply and Demand in North China), n.p., 1940, p. 59.Google ScholarThis excellent study published the results of a conference of Japanese wheat scientists affiliated with agricultural research stations of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry which convened in north China during September and October of 1939 to study wheat production in north China.Google Scholar

9. F. H., King, Farmers of Forty Centuries or Permanent Agriculture in China, Korea and Japan (Emmaus Perm: Rodale Press, 1911), p. 231.Google Scholar

10. Kōain, , Hoku-Shi komugi no hinshitsu oyobi jukyō ni kansuru chōsa, p. 231.Google Scholar

11. Ibid. p. 63.

12. Ibid. p. 63.

13. King, F. H., Farmers of Forty Centuries or Permanent Agriculture in China, Korea and Japan, p. 266.Google Scholar

14. This estimate of the sown area divided by cultivated area is based upon data contained in Shina nōgyō kiso tōkei shiryō I, pp. 9–67.Google Scholar

15. Shan-yu, Chin (comp.), Chung-kuo hsiao-mai tsai-p'ei hsüeh (Studies of Wheat Cultivation in China) (Peking, 1961), Vol. I, pp. 27–43.Google Scholar

16. Ibid. pp. 27–43.

17. Ibid. pp. 27–43.

18. These examples are taken from the author's field notes.Google Scholar

19. King, F. H., Farmers of Forty Centuries or Permanent Agriculture in China, Korea and Japan, pp. 264–65.Google Scholar

20. Based upon the author's field notes.Google Scholar

21. Kokuritsu, Pekin daigaku fusetsu nōson keizai kenkyūjo, Santōshō Kō-Sai ensen chihō nōson no ichi kenkyū (A Study of Villages Along the Tsingtao-Chinan Railroad Line in Shantung Province) (Peking, 1942), pp. 66–69 and pp. 155–56.Google Scholar

22. Investigating Group of the Honan Provincial Party Committee, “Implement a correct line and win high wheat yields,” Chinese Economic Studies, Vol. 9, No. 4 (Summer 1976), pp. 6–16.Google Scholar

23. This estimate was derived from data for Honan's wheat sown area and production in Shina nōgyō kiso tōkei shiryō I, p. 18 and pp. 45–46.Google Scholar

24. In 1929–31 about 58 per cent of the cultivated area of these counties had been used for wheat. If in 1974 only 45 per cent of the cultivated area was sown to wheat and the wheat sown area had declined below the 1929–31 sown area, some land might have been taken out of production for these capital projects. Such capital improvements and the improvement of roads throughout the country in the future will invariably reduce the area of fertile, cultivated land. The importance of irrigation policy, especially the local attention devoted to this strategy in Honan in 1958, has been stressed recently in an important essay on the subject by Akio Nishimura, “Chūgoku no suiri kensetsu ni okeru sanshu seisaku” (“The three major policies in water control construction in China”), Ajiya kenkyū, Vol. 24, No. 1 (04 1977), pp. 1–23.Google Scholar

25. See Trip Report of the Wheat Studies Delegation, Chapter 1, “Soil and crop management and related factors.”Google Scholar

26. Chang, Chun, “Chemical fertilizer output on the Chinese mainland,” Issues & Studies, Vol. 13, No. 2 (02 1977), p. 51.Google Scholar

27. See Trip Report of the Wheat Studies Delegation, Chapter 1.Google Scholar

28. Shen, T. H., Agricultural Resources of China (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1951), p. 189.Google Scholar

29. The National Agricultural Research Bureau and National Rice and Wheat Improvement Institute, Report for the Year 1936 (Chungking, 1938), p. 3.Google Scholar

30. Shen, T. H.A Co-ordinated Program of Wheat Breeding in China (Nanking: The National Agricultural Research Bureau, 1936), No. 6, p. 19.Google Scholar

31. Ibid. pp. 28–29.

32. Love, H. H. and Chang, R. C., A Regional Test of Wheat (Nanking: The National Agricultural Research Bureau, 1934), pp. 1–25.Google ScholarAlso Chang, C. C., “Dates for planting wheat in China,” The China Journal, Vol. 13, No. 6 (12 1930), pp. 316–19.Google Scholar

33. Shen Li-ying, Hsiao-mai tsa-chiao-yu chung-fa (Methods of Wheat Breeding: Hybridization)(May 1937), No. 19, pp. 1–31;Google ScholarShen Li-ying, Tsu-tuan hsiao-mai sheng-ch'ang shih-yen ti-i-nien chieh-kuo pao-kao (Preliminary Report on a Wheat Vernalization Experiment) (August 1934), No. 4, pp. 1–12.Google Scholar

34. Shen, T. H., Tai, S. C.and Chia, W. L., A Preliminary Report on the Inheritance of Nematode Resistance and Length of Beak in a Certain Wheat Cross (05 1934), No. 19, pp. 11–17;Google Scholar

Shen, T. H., The Inheritance of Resistance to Flag Smut (Urocystis Tritici Koern) in Ten Wheat Crosses (June 1934), No. 17, pp. 1–17. These studies were published by the College of Agriculture and Forestry of the University of Nanking.Google Scholar

35. Ch'ang-chi, Wu, Kuo-nei mai-lei hei-sui-ping fen-pu chih ch'u-pu tiao-ch'a pao-kao (A Preliminary Report on the Geographic Distribution of Cereal Smuts in China) (10 1934), No. 6, pp. 1–22.Google Scholar

36. Shen, T. H., Agricultural Resources of China, pp. 353–54.Google ScholarSee also the National Agricultural Research Bureau, Report for the Year 1935 (Nanking, 1936), p. 4,Google Scholarin which it states that in 1935, “4,497 now selections representing 143 varieties of Chinese and foreign wheat were added, making a total of 25,915 selections grown during the year. Among the 5,803 strains chosen for testing the following year, the average yield was over 30 per cent more than the check variety.” Also the National Agriculture Research Bureau, Report for the Year 1938 (Chungking, 1939), pp. 9–11.Google Scholar

37. Kōain kahoku renrakubu, Komugi sakushi hihō shishin (A Guide to Application of Chemical Fertilizer Methods for Wheat Production) (Peking, 1942), p. 5.Google Scholar

38. Ibid. p. 6. Similar experiments conducted by the Japanese in Manchuria in 1935–37 on the relationship between wheat yield response to chemical fertilizers produced results where some yields exceeded 2,200 kg./ha. with amounts of potassium and calcium ranging between 40 to 80 kg./ha. See Manshū Nōgakkai kanri kabushiki kaisha, Manshū komugisaku no kenkyū (Studies in Wheat Growing in Manchuria) (Shinkyō, 1941), p. 67.

39. Ibid. p. 8. On the same note a research study on foodgrains in north China by Inazuka Gonjirō, Kahoku ni okeru jūyō ryōshoku nōsakubutsu zōshū no gijutsu teki shomondai (Technical Problems of Increasing the Production of Major Foodgrains in North China) (Shihchiachuang, 1942), pointed out that wheat research at Peking, Chinan and Shih-men had demonstrated that irrigation alone increased existing yields in these 3 locales by 30, 60 and 300 per cent respectively (p. 2). When chemical fertilizers alone were used wheat yields were increased 70 and 80 per cent (p. 3).

40. Shen, T. H., Agricultural Resources of China, p. 190.Google Scholar

41. See Ch'ien Nien-ts'eng et al., Hsiao-mai; Chung-hua jen-min kung-ho-kuo nung-yeh-pu liang-shih sheng-ch'an tsung-chu (comp.), Tung-hsiao-mai tsai-p'ei chi-shu (Cultivation Techniques for Winter Wheat) (Peking: Tsai-cheng ching-chi ch'u-pan-she, 1956); Hua-pei nung-yeh k'o-hsüeh yen-chiu-suo and hsiao-mai chung-ho yen-chiu-tsu, Ho-pei, Shan-hsi tung-hsiao-mai tsai-p'ei chi-shu yen-chiu (Studies on Cultivation Techniques for Winter Wheat in Hopei and Shansi) (Peking: Tsai-cheng ching-chi ch'u-pan-she, 1957).Google Scholar

42. Li Fan, Hua-pei pei-pu ho nei-meng-ku nan-pu ch'un-mai-ch'ü ch'un-hsiao-mai chi ch'i-t'a nung-tsa-wu tsai-p'ei kai-huang (The Conditions for Cultivating Spring Wheat and Other Crops in the Spring Wheat Region of the North Part of North China and the Southern Part of Inner Mongolia) (Shanghai: Ts'ai cheng ching-chi ch'u-pan-she, 1957), p. 115.Google Scholar

43. Shan-yu, Chin, Chung-kuo hsiao-mai tsai-p'ei hsüeh, Vols. I and II.Google Scholar

44. K'o-jang, Chiu, “Hsu-Huai ti-ch'u san-miao ch'un-kai tseng-ch'an kou-ch'eng yin-su ti t'an-t'ao” (“An inquiry of the factors influencing the increase of wheat, barley, and naked barley by spring irrigation in Hsu and Hwai Districts of Kiangsu Province”), Chung-kuo nung-yeh k'o-hsüeh, Vol. 5 (1963), pp. 21–27.Google Scholar

45. Han-yung, Shen, “Chieh-shao hsiao-mai feng-ch'an wen-t'i yen-chiu i-shu” (“Introducing the work: a study on raising wheat yield”), Chung-kuo nung-yeh k'o-hsüeh, Vol. 7 (1963), pp. 50–52.Google Scholar

46. Ch'ien nien-ts'eng et al., Hsiao-mai, p. 107.Google Scholar

47. Ibid. p. 104.

48. Ibid. p. 116.

49. Ibid. p. 120.

50. Ibid. p. 118.

51. Ibid. p. 122.

52. Ibid. p. 114.

53. Chin Shan-yu, , Chung-kuo hsiao-mai tsai-p'ei hsüeh, Vol. I, p. 6.Google Scholar

54. The examples cited are based on my field notes.Google Scholar

55. See Trip Report of the Wheat Studies Delegation, the chapter titled Pests of Wheat.Google Scholar

56. See Trip Report, chapter titled “Politics and populism.”Google Scholar

57. This assertion seems true in the light of publications concerning wheat in the last six years. Most of the items recently published stress the “learn from Tachai” campaign, making political discussion the top priority activity, and mobilizing labour for capital projects. For example see Nung-yeh ch'u-pan-she, Hsiao-mai feng-ch'an tien-hsing ching-yen hsien-pien (Collected Writings on Model Experiments to Produce a Bountiful Wheat Harvest) (Peking, 1973), p. 102.Google Scholar

58. Office of Foreign Agricultural Relations, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Report of the China–United States Agricultural Mission (Washington D.C., 05 1947), p. 76.Google Scholar

59. Ibid. p. 87.

60. Ibid. p. 76.

61. According to C. M. Heh, 107 metric tons of new wheat and cereal seeds were distributed between 1923–30 and another 100 metric tons between 1931–34. See The Advancement of Seed Distribution of Improved Crop Varieties, No. 3 (03 1935), p. 9, issued by the College of Agriculture and Forestry of the University of Nanking. The Districts of Wukiang and Nanhsuchow of Anhwei and the Nanking vicinity were the recipients of these new seeds.Google Scholar

62. This illustration is based on my field notes.Google Scholar

63. The Wheat Studies Delegation requested a visit to a county research division, but this request was denied. This information is based upon a briefing by a county official.Google Scholar

64. The county plans and co-ordinates well construction in communes and the production and distribution of chemical fertilizers and farm machinery. This system requires considerable meetings and committee work, so that enormous bureaucratization has evolved in recent years. The amount of co-ordination taking place is complex, and for this reason the duplication of activities, such as wheat seed testing, is considerable.Google Scholar

65. For supporting evidence see Ramon H. Myers, “The commercialization of agriculture in Modern China,” in W. E. Willmott (ed.), Economic Organization in Chinese Society (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1972), pp. 173–92.Google Scholar

66. Hoku-Shi komugi no hinshitsu oyobi jukyō ni kansuru chōsa, p. 27.Google Scholar

67. Ibid. pp. 43–45.

68. Executive Yuan, “Tiao-ch'a kuo-nei ch'an-mai chih-hsiao ch'ing-hsing pao-kao” (“A report of an investigation of the conditions blocking the sale of wheat within our country”), Nung-ts'un fu-hsing wei-yuan-hui hui-pao, No. 5 (October 1933), p. 62.Google Scholar

69. Shanhai jimusho, Komugi oyobi komugiko (Wheat and Wheat Flour) (Shanghai, 1938), pp. 29–30.Google Scholar

70. Ibid. pp. 31–33.

71. For a discussion of how the Japanese seized grain from the north China countryside see Ma Li-yuan, “Chan-shih hua-pei nung-tso-wu sheng-ch'an chi ti-wei tui shih-liang lueh-to” (“The enemy and puppet plundering of grain and crop production in north China during the war”) She-hui k'o-hsüeh tsa-chih, Vol. 10, No. 1 (06 1948), pp. 62–81.Google ScholarFor two Japanese views of the north China foodgrain problem during wartime arguing that the foodgrain shortage was fiction rather than fact because farmers hoarded their grain see Kurata Jun, Hoku-Shi ni okeru ryoshoku mondai no tokushitsu (Special Characteristics of the Foodgrain Problem in North China), pp. 1–10, and Watanabe Hyōriki, Nōson jittai chōsa o tsūjite mitaru ryoshoku jijō (The Foodgrain Conditions as Seen from an Actual Survey of Villages), pp. 11–20. These are two unidentified pamphlets in the Hoover East Asian Collection (J 612.221/H 827).Google Scholar

72. Shan-tung-sheng lai-yang nung-yeh hsüeh-hsiao, Hsiao-mai, p. 1.Google Scholar

73. I am indebted to the anonymous referee of this essay for this point.Google Scholar

74. I have calculated the following growth rates from terminal years to show the cyclical variations in long-term growth of wheat and foodgrain. The latter category may or may not contain soya beans.1949–51 to 1955–57 1955–57 to 1965 1965 to 1972 1955–57 to 1972 1949–51 to 1972 Item(6 yr)(9 yr)(7 yr)(16 yr)(22 yr)Foodgrain4.200.753.121.803.08Wheat7.810.655.142.613.96Google Scholar

75. This discussion of future wheat supply conditions ignores the demand side and whether the 1994 guess estimate of wheat production would mean China had achieved wheat self-sufficiency. As we know little about population growth until 1994 and the income elasticity of demand for wheat, I have not considered future demand for wheat. To achieve a wheat yield of 3,259 kg./ha. in 1994 would mean that China would come close to duplicating the average wheat yield obtained in both West and East Germany in 1972.Google Scholar

76. For example, in 1965 Taiwan farmers applied 775 kg./ha. of high quality chemical fertilizer to the total sown area for rice alone. This fertilizer contained a very high content of nitrogen. Calculated from Chinese–American Joint Commission on Rural Reconstruction, Taiwan Agricultural Statistics 1961–1965 (Taipei, 1966), p. 17 for rice crop area and p. 265 for fertilizers distributed to rice crop. In Japan the amount of fertilizer per unit of sown rice land was even higher.Google Scholar

77. Some readers will probably be most sceptical of the assertion that in 1972 yield frequencies for the lowest quintals were either the same or lower than that for 1929–31. The Wheat Studies Delegation observed areas of extremely low wheat yield, but members did not have the opportunity to inspect these areas at close hand. The Delegation travelled by train from Sian to Peking, and en route members saw vast areas of very poor wheat. Wheat yields were apparently so low, it seems doubtful that sufficient seed could have been produced to sow the next crop.Google Scholar

78. As the yields for wheat and other foodgrains produced in the environs of very large metropolitan areas reach a maximum, more of this land will be turned to growing vegetables. Construction of new structures will also mean the withdrawal of land from farm production around these centres. More foodgrain will then have to be shipped from the hinterland. The investment requirements for transport and marketing are likely to become very great in the near future as foodgrain yields on the very fertile land of quintal I approach a maximum. For these reasons too the industrial sector will be required to increase the supply of capital at a prodigious rate of growth.Google Scholar