1. State Statistical Bureau (SSB) Laodong gongzi tongji ziliao, 1949–1985 (Statistical Materials on Labour and Wages, 1949–1985) (Beijing: Zhongguo tongji chubanshe, 1987), p. 80.Google Scholar

2. ZGTJNJ 1987, p. 115.Google Scholar

3. See Lukuan, Zhao and Yuqun, Yao, “Guanyu woguo laodongli ziyuan de jige wenti” (“Some questions concerning China's labour resources”), Jingji wenti tansuo (Inquiry into Economic Issues), No. 12 (1983), p. 23Google Scholar; Yu, Xiong, “Zhongguo renkou xuehui lishihui kuoda huiyi taolun woguo renkou yu shehui jingji wenti” (“The population, social and economic issues discussed at the annual session of the Council of the Population Association of China”), Renkou yanjiu (Population Research), No. 2 (1983), p. 59Google Scholar; Muzhen, Li, “Woguo chengshi renkou wenti fenxi” (“An analysis of the population of cities in China”), Renkou yu jingji (Population and Economics), No. 4 (1984), p. 6Google Scholar; and Zonghan, Zheng, “Lun xiao chengzhen” (“On small towns”), Zhongguo shehui kexue (Social Sciences in China), No. 4 (1983), p. 125.Google Scholar

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7. Buck, John Lossing, Land Utilization in China (Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1937), pp. 294–97.Google Scholar

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9. Makesi engesi quanti (Complete Works of Marx and Engels), Vol. 25, p. 885.Google Scholar

10. Rawski, Thomas G., Economic Growth and Employment in China (New York: Oxford University Press, 1979), pp. 91–109.Google Scholar Rawski's framework for analysing rural labour absorption is used here throughout, primarily because his conclusions are remarkably durable in light of recent statistical data. Other studies which draw similar conclusions on the success of efforts to raise labour absorption in agriculture are Ishikawa, Shigeru, Economic Development in Asian Perspective (Tokyo: Kinokuniya Bookstore Co., Ltd., 1967), Ch. 3Google Scholar; Ishikawa, Shigeru, Yamada, Saburo, and Hirashima, S., Labour Absorption and Growth in Agriculture: China and Japan (Bangkok: International Labour Organization-ARTEP, 1982), Ch. 1Google Scholar; and Khan, Azizur Rahman and Lee, Eddy, Agrarian Policies and Institutions in China after Mao (Bangkok: International Labour Organization-ARTEP, 1983), Ch. 7.Google Scholar

11. For example, as of year-end 1986, fully 81% of all workers in rural areas were engaged in farming. See ZGTJNJ 1987, p. 116Google Scholar, and ZGNCTJNJ 1987, p. 212.Google Scholar

12. These findings are true only if the sample of commodities in Figure 2 is representative of agriculture overall. The choice of commodities was determined largely by the availability of historical statistics on labour inputs per hectare. The only comprehensive source of these data is Ruofeng, Niu et al. , (eds.), Nongye jishu jingji shouce (xiuding ben) (Agriculture Technical-Economic Handbook (revised edition)) (Beijing: Nongye chubanshe, 1984), pp. 640–47.Google Scholar Data for later years may be found in ZGNCTJNJ 1985, pp. 154–68Google Scholar; ZGNCTJNJ 1986, pp. 162–65Google Scholar; ZGNCTJNJ 1987, pp. 160–66Google Scholar; and SSB, Yearbook of Rural Social and Economic Statistics for China (Beijing: China Reconstructs and China Statistical Information and Consultancy Service Centre, 1987), pp. 146–49.Google Scholar

13. Rawski, , Economic Growth and Employment in China, pp. 109–113.Google Scholar

14. The highly seasonal nature of agricultural activity was graphically depicted by Buck in his discussion of labour activity by month for the early 1930s. Survey data showed an overwhelming concentration of labour activity during peak planting and harvest seasons, and extremely low activity rates at other times of the year, particularly during the winter months. See Buck, , Land Utilization in China, p. 296.Google Scholar

15. Wong, Christine Pui Wah, “Rural industrialization in the People's Republic of China: lessons from the Cultural Revolution decade,” in U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee (ed.), China Under the Four Modernizations (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1982), p. 395.Google Scholar This increase in employment has come at a very high cost in terms of efficiency. For further details, see Perkins, Dwight et al. , Rural Small-Scale Industry in the People's Republic of China (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1977)Google Scholar; Sigurdson, Jon, Rural Industrialization in China (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1977)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Riskin, Carl, “Small industry and the Chinese model of development,” The China Quarterly (CQ), No. 46 (04/06 1971), pp. 245–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

16. Fang, Tian and Fatang, Lin, Zhongguo renkou qianyi (Migration of China's Population) (Beijing: Zhishi chubanshe, 1986), p. 24.Google Scholar

17. Qixian, Zeng, “Zhongguo jingji fazhan zhong de jiuye wenti” (“Employment in China's economic development”), in Dixin, Xu et al. , (eds.), Zhongguo guomin jingji fazhan zhong de wenti (Issues in China's Economic Development) (Beijing: Zhongguo shehui kexue chubanshe, 1981), p. 115.Google Scholar Most of these individuals were returned to the countryside between 1962–63 to avert a drawing down of state grain reserves for urban areas. See Taylor, Jeffrey R., “Labor force developments in the People's Republic of China, 1952–1983,” in U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee et al. (eds.), China's Economic Looks Toward the Year 2000, Vol. 1 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1986), p. 234.Google Scholar

18. See Yonghe, Kang, “Zhongguo chengzhen de laodong jiuye” (“Employment in Chinese cities and towns”), Renkou yanjiu, No. 1 (1982), p. 17Google Scholar; Lanrui, Feng and Lukuan, Zhao, Zhongguo chengzhen de jiuye he gongzi (Urban Employment and Wages in China) (Beijing: Renmin chubanshe, 1982), p. 6Google Scholar; and Qixian, Zeng, “Employment in China's economic development,” p. 116.Google Scholar

19. Volatility in the share of new urban jobs assigned to rural labour from 1978 to 1982 is due to pressures on cities to aborb “educated youths” who returned from the countryside. The very high share shown for 1978 is almost certainly due to a massive influx of such youths to cities. For further details, see Emerson, John Philip, “Urban school-leavers and unemployment in China,” CQ, No. 93 (03 1983), p. 7.Google Scholar

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21. Yuancen, Li, “Problems of surplus labour in our country's agriculture at the present stage,” Jiaoxue yu yanjiu (Education and Research), No. 2 (1957), pp. 20–22.Google Scholar Originally cited by Emerson, John Philip, “Employment in mainland China: problems and prospects,” in U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee (ed.), An Economic Profile of Mainland China, Vol. 2 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1967), p. 420.Google Scholar

22. “To compile and implement the Second Five-Year Plan, it is necessary to oppose conservatism and waste,” Jihua jingji (Planned Economy), No. 3 (1958), p. 3.Google Scholar Originally cited by Emerson, in, “Employment in mainland China: problems and prospects,” p. 420.Google Scholar

23. Xin, Sun, “Shixi woguo noncun shengyu laodongli de xingcheng yuanyin jijiejue tujing” (“Causes and resolution of the preliminary division of China's rural surplus labour force”), Lanzhou daxuexuebao (Journal of Lanzhou University), No. 1 (1984), p. 107.Google Scholar

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25. For further information on the household registration system, see Yinkang, Hu, “Huji dengji fagui de gaige yu jingji fazhan de xuyao” (“Reform of the household registration regulations and the needs of economic development”), Shehui kexue (Social Sciences), No. 6 (1985), pp. 36–37Google Scholar; and Goldstein, Sidney and Goldstein, Alice, “Population mobility in the People's Republic of China,” Papers of the East- West Population Institute, No. 95 (Honolulu: East-West Center, 1985), pp. 9–15.Google Scholar

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27. Junjie, Lun, “Nongcun laoli zhuanyi ying shi yixiang guoce” (“The transfer of rural labour force should be a state policy”), Renmin ribao (People's Daily), 28 09 1986, p. 2.Google Scholar

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29. A detailed discussion and evaluation of the rural labour compensation system may be found in Walker, Kenneth R., “Organization of agricultural production,” in Eckstein, Alexander, Galenson, Walter and Liu, Ta-Chung (eds.), Economic Trends in Communist China (Chicago: Aldine Publishing Company, 1968), pp. 397–458.Google Scholar

30. These reforms are discussed in Walker, Kenneth R., “Chinese agriculture during the period of readjustment, 1978–1983,” CQ, No. 100 (12 1984), pp. 783–812CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Crook, Frederick W., “The reform of the commune system and the rise of the township-collective-household system,” in U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee (eds.), China's Economy Looks Toward the Year 2000, Vol. 1 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1986), pp. 354–75.Google Scholar

31. Independent of rural economic reforms, rural labour use per crop has been affected by the substitution of chemical fertilizers for natural fertilizers. The latter takes peasants considerable time to collect, process and apply, compared to the time required to applying chemical fertilizers.

32. This overview of techniques used to estimate rural surplus labour is based on discussions with Chinese labour experts in Beijing from May–June 1987, and Fengjun, Lu, “Nongye shengyu laodongli de jisuan” (“Calculation of the surplus labour force in agriculture”), in Jiapei, Wu and Shouyi, Zhang (eds.), Jingji jiliang fangfa zai zhongguo de yinyong (Application of Quantitative Economic Methods in China) (Beijing: Zhongguo zhanwang chubanshe, 1986), pp. 293–94.Google Scholar

33. Fang, Tian and Fatang, Lin, Migration of China's Population, p. 24.Google Scholar

34. Qingzeng, Li, “Lun woguo nongcun laodongli de guosheng wenti” (“The question of China's rural labour surplus”), Nongye jingji wenti (Agricultural Economic Problems, No. 10 (1986), p. 8.Google Scholar

35. Linfei, Song, “Nongcun laodongli de shengyu ji qi chulu” (“Surplus labour in rural areas and its employment”), Zhongguo shehui kexue, No. 5 (1982), pp. 121–33.Google Scholar

36. Interview with analysts at the Institute of Systems Science, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 8 May 1987.

37. This survey was originally undertaken to obtain source materials required for the compilation of a 1982 agricultural input-output table for China. For details, see Xikang, Chen, Jinliang, Hao and Xinwei, Xue, “Input—output table for agricultural sectors and its application,”Google Scholar paper published in monograph form by the Institute of Systems Science, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1987.

38. Fengjun, Lu, “Calculation of the surplus labour force in agriculture,” p. 294.Google Scholar

39. Ibid. p. 300.

40. Interview with analysts at the Rural Development Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, 19 May 1987.

41. This occurred between 1957 and 1958, in response to national campaigns promoting the development of rural small-scale industry and rural self-sufficiency. Statistics are from Statistical Materials on Labour and Wages, p. 80.Google Scholar

42. Ibid.

43. The decline in agricultural employment levels in rural areas may be nothing more than a statistical anomaly. Changes in the classification system for economic sectors in 1985 apparently took workers in village and below industry originally classified as being involved in agricultural side-lines, and moved them to industry. This could explain the sudden drop in agricultural employment in 1985, and the equally sudden jump in industrial employment for the same year.

44. The extraordinary 36% annual average employment growth shown for “other sectors” from 1978 to 1986Google Scholar may be a statistical aberration. Table 8 is arranged according to the old industrial classification system, where residential services, banking and insurance, and other unspecified sectors were grouped together. The post-1984 industrial classification system reports these subsectors separately, and when they are summed up to obtain a total that can be compared with earlier data, a huge jump in employment of eight million is noted from 1984 to 1985. An accounting change that expands the scope of “other” activities might explain this, though nothing has yet been published to shed light on this anomaly.

45. See Taylor, , “Labor force developments,” p. 245.Google Scholar

46. See ZGNCTJNJ 1987, p. 218.Google Scholar

47. See Peihua, Shi, “Shengyu laodongli de jiegou he duice” (“The structure of surplus labour, and counter-measures against it”), Jingji wenti, No. 12 (1986), p. 48Google Scholar; Bizhong, Zeng, “Nongcun shengyu laodongli zhuanyi fangxiang ji duice” (“The direction and measures for transfer of rural surplus labour”), Jingji wenti tansuo, No. 1 (1987), p. 8Google Scholar; and Shijie, Jiang, “Nongcun jiuye zhanlue he zhengce guoji taolunhui bimu” (“International conference on rural employment strategies concludes”), Renmin ribao (People's Daily), 13 04 1986, p. 3.Google Scholar

48. Xing, Chang, “Yiwan nongye shengyu laodongli wanghe chuli” (“Where to direct the hundreds of millions of surplus rural labour”), Zhongguo laodong kexue, No. 3 (1987), pp. 38–39.Google Scholar

49. See Mei, Yu, “Qianyi woguo nongye laodongli yu shengyu laodongli de zhuanyi” (“The transfer of China's agricultural labour and surplus labour”), Zhongguo nongcun jingji, No. 12 (1987), p. 27Google Scholar; Zuoxing, Zhang, “Luelun nongcun laodongli zhuanyi xin jieduan de jizhi yu duice” (“Mechanisms and measures for transferring rural labour in the new era”), Renkou yanjiu, No. 5 (1987), pp. 16–19Google Scholar; and Yecheng, Ji, “Taidu yaojiji buzi yao wentuo” (“Our attitude must be positive; our steps, steady”), Renmin ribao, 28 09 1986, p. 2.Google Scholar

50. This approach has been called the “3–2–3” plan, in reference to the sectors of economy in which new jobs predominate. Interview with researchers at the Rural Development Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, 19 May 1987, in Beijing.

51. Banister, Judith, “China: recent trends in health and mortality,” CIR Staff Paper No. 23 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Center for International Research, 1986), pp. 14–15.Google Scholar

52. Calculated from data on employment for these professions in SSB, Zhongguo shehui tongji ziliao, 1987 (Social Statistics of China, 1987) (Beijing: Zhongguo tongji chubanshe, 1987), p. 205Google Scholar, and ZGCTJNJ 1987, p. 265.Google Scholar

53. Calculated from rural employment data in ZGNCTJNJ 1985, p. 270Google Scholar, and ZGNCTJNJ 1987, p. 255.Google Scholar

54. Ibid. Students included in these calculations are those in primary, lower middle and upper middle school.

55. Taylor, , “Labor force developments,” p. 246.Google Scholar

56. ZGTJNJ 1987, p. 89.Google Scholar

57. Judith Banister estimates that roughly 83% of the growth in China's urban population through 1984 was due to the incorporation of cities and towns previously considered rural, and that 17% was due to rural-to-urban migration. In another study, based on migration patterns in 71 cities and towns, Ma Xia estimates that approximately 70 million (18%) of China's 1985 urban residents were at some point migrants from rural areas. For details, see Banister, Judith, “Urban-rural population projections for China,” CIR Staff Paper No. 15 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Center for International Research, 1986), pp. 11–21Google Scholar, and Xia, Ma, “Dangdai zhongguo nongcun renkou xiang chengzhen de da qianyi” (“Rural-urban migration in contemporary China”), Zhongguo renkou kexue (Population Science of China), No. 3 (1987), pp. 7–8.Google Scholar

58. For further information on this subject, see Bernstein, Thomas, Up to the Mountains and Down to the Villages (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1977)Google Scholar; Emerson, , “Urban School-leavers and unemployment in China,” p. 7Google Scholar; and Banister, Judith, China's Changing Population (Stanford, California: Stanford University Press, 1987), Ch. 9.Google Scholar

59. SSB, Statistical Materials on Labour and Wages in China, p. 110.Google Scholar

60. For example, through 1986, 15 million urban youths had been sent down to the countryside, but only seven million had been allowed to return to return home. Ibid. pp. 110–11.

61. Ibid. p. 111.

62. See “Zhonggong zhongyang guanyu jiakuai nongye fazhan ruogan wenti de jueding” (“Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on some questions concerning the acceleration of agricultural development”), ZGJJNJ 1981, pp. 11–100 to 11–107.Google Scholar

63. Xia, Ma, “Rural-urban migration in contemporary China,” p. 5.Google Scholar

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67. Shi, Cheng, “Chongfen fahui xiao chengzhen rongna nongcun shengyu laodongli de jiji zuoyong” (“Fully develop the active role of small cities and towns in absorbing surplus labour from rural areas”), Zhongguo laodong, No. 11 (1985), p. 10.Google Scholar

68. A review article that tackles these alternatives slogan by slogan is Lanrui, Feng and Weiyu, Jiang, “Nongye shengyu laodongli zhuanyi moshi de bijiao yanjiu” (“A comparative study of the models for transferring agricultural surplus labour”), Zhongguo shehui kexue, No. 5 (1987), pp. 43–52.Google Scholar

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72. In a recent survey of 600 peasants in Henan province who had migrated to urban areas to work, 99–6% responded that they had retained their household's plot of land despite having switched vocations. See Xiaohong, Hou, Yun, Liu, Jinlin, Wang and Yongyi, Liu, “Xian jieduan nongcun shengyu laodongli xingwei tezheng” (“Characteristics of the current behaviour of the surplus rural labour force”), Jingji yanjiu (Economic Research), No. 2 (1988), pp. 66–70.Google Scholar

73. Maoxiu, Wang, “Woguo nongye laodongli de zhuanyi” (“The transformation of China's rural labour force”), Renkou yujingji, No. 3 (1987), p. 40.Google Scholar

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76. Gargan, Edward A., “Across the Chinese countryside, the watchword is think big,” New York Times, 3 04 1988, p. 14.Google Scholar

77. Southerland, Daniel, “China approves major reforms on private profit, land rights,” The Washington Post, 13 04 1988, p. A27.Google Scholar

78. See ZGNCTJNJ 1985, pp. 173–75Google Scholar, ZGNCTJNJ 1986, pp. 171–73Google Scholar, and ZGNCTJNJ 1987, pp. 153–55.Google Scholar

79. Labour productivity in Figure 5 is the ratio of gross value of agricultural output in constant 1980 prices to employment. The village and below industry component of gross value of agricultural output was removed for (1985 and 1986 in these calculations to reflect definitional changes in agricultural employment.

80. Study One in Table 9 was carried out under the auspices of the Rural Development Research Centre of the State Council and the Rural Development Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The author in Study Two is a senior economist with the Population Research Centre of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Other projections of China's employment structure may be found in Jiyi, Pan and Xiangyan, Wen, “Zhongguo nongye laodongli zhuanyi de fenqu yanjiu” (“A regional study of the transfer of agricultural labour in China”), Renkou yu jingji, No. 1 (1986), p. 40Google Scholar; Fangquan, Mei, “Ben shiji wei zhongguo nongcun reng Jiang shengyu yiyi laodongli” (“China in the year 2000: 100 million surplus rural workers will remain”), Nongye jingji wenti. No. 12 (1986), pp. 42–44Google Scholar; and Zhongguo Nong Ke Yuan Liangshi He Jingji Zuowu Fazhan Yanjiu Zu (Grain and Economic Activities Research Office of the Chinese Academy of Agriculture Science), “Woguo liangshi he jingji zuowu fazhan de yanjiu” (“Research on the development of China's grain and economic activities”), in Guowuyuan Nongcun Fazhan Yanjiu Zhongxin (State Council Rural Development Centre) et al. (eds.), Zhongguo nongcun fazhan zhanlue wenti (Problems in China's Rural Development Strategy) (Beijing: Zhongguo nongye keji chubanshe, 1985), pp. 378–79, and 442–47.Google Scholar

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