Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-s2hrs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-19T05:41:15.914Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Inequality and Political Trust in China: The Social Volcano Thesis Re-examined

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 November 2018

Yingnan Joseph Zhou  and
Shuai Jin
Yingnan Joseph Zhou*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, University of Texas at El Paso.
Shuai Jin
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, University of Massachusetts Boston. Email: [email protected].
*
Email: [email protected] (corresponding author).
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The social volcano thesis states that the rising inequality in China threatens regime stability. This idea, although widely held in the media and in academia, is backed by little positive evidence but by much negative evidence. Two primary pieces of negative evidence are that the Chinese people trust the central government and that they are highly tolerant of inequality. This paper discusses the shortcomings of the negative evidence and re-examines the thesis in a rigorous and direct way. Our multilevel analysis shows that provincial inequality has negative effects on individuals’ trust in the local government but not in the central government, and this negative effect holds for both the rich and the poor. Because distrust in the local government implies distrust in the central government, we conclude that a social volcano exists.

摘要

“社会火山论” 认为中国严重的收入不平等会威胁政权稳定。此说虽然在媒体和学术届颇具影响，却尚未得到有力的证据支持。相反，反对此说的证据却越来越多。本文梳理了这些反面证据，指出了其中的问题，并对 “社会火山论” 进行了直接并严格的检验。我们的多层分析显示，省级的收入不平等确实降低了民众（包括穷人和富人）对地方政府的信任度，但不平等对民众对中央政府的信任度没有影响。由于民众对地方政府的不信任隐含了他们对中央政府的不信任，所以本文认为 “社会火山” 是存在的。

Keywords

inequalityGini coefficientpolitical trustChinamultilevel analysis不平等基尼系数政治信任中国多层模型分析
Type
Research Article
Information
The China Quarterly , Volume 236 , December 2018 , pp. 1033 - 1062
Copyright
Copyright © SOAS University of London 2018 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Andersen, Robert, and Fetner, Tina. 2008. “Economic inequality and intolerance: attitudes toward homosexuality in 35 democracies.” American Journal of Political Science 52(4), 942–958.Google Scholar
Becker, Gary S. 1968. “Crime and punishment: an economic approach.” Journal of Political Economy 76, 169–217.Google Scholar
Bowles, Samuel, and Gintis, Herbert. 2000. “Reciprocity, self-interest, and the welfare state.” Nordic Journal of Political Economy 26(1), 33–53.Google Scholar
Brambor, Thomas, Clark, William Roberts and Golder, Matt. 2006. “Understanding interaction models: improving empirical analyses.” Political Analysis 14(1), 63–82.Google Scholar
Chen, Jie. 2004. Popular Political Support in Urban China. Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Center Press.Google Scholar
Chen, Xueyi, and Shi, Tianjian. 2001. “Media effects on political confidence and trust in the People's Republic of China in the post-Tiananmen period.” East Asia 19(3), 84–118.Google Scholar
Converse, Philip E. 1964. “The nature of belief systems in mass publics.” In Apter, David E. (ed.), Ideology and Discontent. New York: The Free Press of Glencoe, 206–258.Google Scholar
Cui, Ernan, Tao, Ran, Warner, Travis J. and Yang, Dali L.. 2015. “How do land takings affect political trust in rural China?” Political Studies 63(S1), 91–109.Google Scholar
Dion, Michelle L., and Birchfield, Vicki. 2010. “Economic development, income inequality, and preferences for redistribution.” International Studies Quarterly 54(2), 315–334.Google Scholar
Downs, Anthony. 1957. “An economic theory of political action in a democracy.” The Journal of Political Economy 65(2), 135–150.Google Scholar
Easterlin, Richard A. 1974. “Does economic growth improve the human lot? Some empirical evidence.” Nations and Households in Economic Growth 89, 89–125.Google Scholar
Fan, Gang, Wang, Xiaolu and Zhu, Hengpeng. 2011. Zhongguo shichanghua zhishu: gediqu shichanghua xiangdui jincheng 2011 nian baogao (NERI Index of Marketization of China's Provinces 2011 Report). Beijing: Jingji kexue chubanshe.Google Scholar
Gamson, William A. 1975. The Strategy of Social Protest. Homewood, IL: Dorsey Press.Google Scholar
Gurr, Ted Robert. 1970. Why Men Rebel. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Hernandez, Javier C. 2016. “Mother's killing of children in rural China spurs debate about inequality,” New York Times, 12 September, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/13/world/asia/mothers-killing-of-children-in-rural-china-spurs-debate-about-inequality.html.Google Scholar
Hosseinpoor, Ahmad Reza, Van Doorslaer, Eddy, Speybroeck, Niko, Naghavi, Mohsen, Mohammad, Kazem, Majdzadeh, Reza, Delavar, Bahram, Jamshidi, Hamidreza and Vega, Jeanette. 2006. “Decomposing socioeconomic inequality in infant mortality in Iran.” International Journal of Epidemiology 35(5), 1211–19.Google Scholar
Hu, Lianhe, and Hu, Angang. 2007. “Pinfu chaju shi ruhe yingxiang shehui wending de?” (How does the gap between rich and poor influence social stability?). Jiangxi shehui kexue 9, 142–151.Google Scholar
Kahn, Joseph. 2006. “China makes commitment to social harmony,” New York Times, 12 October.Google Scholar
Kawachi, Ichiro, Kennedy, Bruce P., Lochner, Kimberly and Prothrow-Stith, Deborah. 1997. “Social capital, income inequality, and mortality.” American Journal of Public Health 87(9), 1491–98.Google Scholar
Kelly, Morgan. 2000. “Inequality and crime.” Review of Economics and Statistics 82(4), 530–39.Google Scholar
Kennedy, John James. 2009. “Maintaining popular support for the Chinese Communist Party: the influence of education and the state-controlled media.” Political Studies 57(3), 517–536.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. 1985. “Pocketbook voting in US national election studies: fact or artifact?” American Journal of Political Science 29(2), 348–356.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Stegmaier, Mary. 2007. “Economic models of voting.” In Dalton, Russell and Klingemann, Hans-Dieter (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1–38.Google Scholar
Li, Lianjiang. 2004. “Political trust in rural China.” Modern China 30(2), 228–258.Google Scholar
Li, Lianjiang. 2016. “Reassessing trust in the central government: evidence from five national surveys.” The China Quarterly 225, 100–121.Google Scholar
Lichbach, Mark Irving. 1998. The Rebel's Dilemma. Ann Arbor, MI: The University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Liu, Weibing. 2011. “Qinli zhe huiyi Wen Jiabao zongli wei nongmingong tao gongzi quan guocheng” (Witness recollects Premier Wen Jiabao's efforts to get peasant workers paid), 6 July, http://news.ifeng.com/history/zhongguoxiandaishi/detail_2011_07/06/7463853_0.shtml. Accessed 10 March 2017.Google Scholar
Lü, Xiaobo. 2014. “Social policy and regime legitimacy: the effects of education reform in China.” American Political Science Review 108(2), 423–437.Google Scholar
Ma, Josephine. 2005. “Wealth gap fueling instability, studies warn,” South China Morning Post, 22 December.Google Scholar
Manion, Melanie. 2004. Corruption by Design: Building Clean Government in Mainland China and Hong Kong. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Mayer, Susan E., and Sarin, Ankur. 2005. “Some mechanisms linking economic inequality and infant mortality.” Social Science & Medicine 60(3), 439–455.Google Scholar
Meltzer, Allan H., and Richard, Scott F.. 1981. “A rational theory of the size of government.” The Journal of Political Economy 89(5), 914–927.Google Scholar
Merton, Robert. 1938. “Social structure and anomie.” American Sociological Review 3, 672–682.Google Scholar
O'Brien, Kevin, and Li, Lianjiang. 2006. Rightful Resistance in Rural China. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Pamuk, Elsie R. 1988. “Social-class inequality in infant mortality in England and Wales from 1921 to 1980.” European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie 4(1), 1–21.Google Scholar
Pei, Minxin. 2002. “China's governance crisis.” Foreign Affairs 81(5), 96–119.Google Scholar
Rosset, Jan, Giger, Nathalie and Bernauer, Julian. 2013. “More money, fewer problems? Cross-level effects of economic deprivation on political representation.” West European Politics 36(4), 817–835.Google Scholar
Russett, Bruce M. 1964. “Inequality and insurgency: the relation of land tenure to politics.” World Politics 16, 442–454.Google Scholar
Shaw, Clifford, and McKay, Henry. 1942. Juvenile Delinquency and Urban Areas. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Shi, Tianjian. 2000. “Cultural values and democracy in the People's Republic of China.” The China Quarterly 162, 540–559.Google Scholar
Shi, Tianjian. 2001. “Cultural values and political trust: a comparison of the People's Republic of China and Taiwan.” Comparative Politics 33(4), 401–419.Google Scholar
Shirk, Susan L. 2008. China: Fragile Superpower. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Sigelman, Lee, Sigelman, Carol K. and Bullock, David. 1991. “Reconsidering pocketbook voting: an experimental approach.” Political Behavior 13(2), 129–149.Google Scholar
Solt, Frederick. 2008. “Economic inequality and democratic political engagement.” American Journal of Political Science 52(1), 48–60.Google Scholar
Solt, Frederick. 2010. “Does economic inequality depress electoral participation? Testing the Schattschneider hypothesis.” Political Behavior 32(2), 285–301.Google Scholar
Solt, Frederick. 2016. “The Standardized World Income Inequality Database.” Social Science Quarterly 97(5), 1267–81Google Scholar
State Council Information Office. 2013. “0.47–0.49 guojia tongji ju shouci fabu shi nian jini xishu” (National Bureau of Statistics publishes the Gini coefficients for the first time in a decade), http://www.scio.gov.cn/zhzc/2/32764/Document/1421797/1421797.htm. Accessed 20 March 2017.Google Scholar
Tang, Wenfang. 2016. Populist Authoritarianism: Chinese Political Culture and Regime Sustainability. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Tian, Weimin. 2012. “Shengyu jumin shouru jini xishu cesuan jiqi biandong qushi fenxi” (Provincial income Gini coefficient: levels and changes). Jingji kexue 2, 48–59.Google Scholar
Tsai, Lily L. 2007. “Solidary groups, informal accountability, and local public goods provision in rural China.” American Political Science Review 101(02), 355–372.Google Scholar
Wang, Jianlin. 2016. “Behind Wang Jianlin's a hundred million small target: eight thousand million will also do,” Nengliang Media, 30 August, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_V3l3znyAk&t=12s.Google Scholar
Wennemo, Irene. 1993. “Infant mortality, public policy and inequality – a comparison of 18 industrialised countries 1950–85.” Sociology of Health & Illness 15(4), 429–446.Google Scholar
Whyte, Martin. 2010. Myth of the Social Volcano: Perceptions of Inequality and Distributive Injustice in Contemporary China. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Whyte, Martin King. 2016. “China's dormant and active social volcanoes.” The China Journal 75(1), 9–37.Google Scholar
Whyte, Martin King, and Im, Dong-Kyun. 2014. “Is the social volcano still dormant? Trends in Chinese attitudes toward inequality.” Social Science Research 48, 62–76.Google Scholar
Wilkinson, Richard G. 1986. “Income and mortality.” In Wilkinson, Richard G. (ed.), Class and Health: Research and Longitudinal Data. London: Tavistock, 88–114.Google Scholar
Wilkinson, Richard G. 1990. “Income distribution and mortality: a ‘natural’ experiment.” Sociology of Health & Illness 12(4), 391–412.Google Scholar
Wu, Xiaogang. 2009. “Income inequality and distributive justice: a comparative analysis of mainland China and Hong Kong.” The China Quarterly 200, 1033–52.Google Scholar
Zaller, John. 1992. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Zhang, Liang, edited by Nathan, Andrew J. and Link, Perry. 2002. The Tiananmen Papers. New York: PublicAffairs.Google Scholar
Zhou, Yingnan Joseph. 2016. “How does voting in grassroots elections influence assessment of democracy in China?” Journal of Chinese Political Science 23(2), 1–25.Google Scholar
Zhou, Yingnan Joseph, and Ou-Yang, Ray. 2017. “Explaining high external efficacy in authoritarian countries: a comparison of China and Taiwan.” Democratization 24(2), 283–304.Google Scholar