1. In this article, the word “province” is used to refer to all provincial-level units, including the 21 provinces, five autonomous regions and three independent municipalities that comprise the administrative jurisdiction into which the People's Republic of China has been divided during most of the years since 1949. It was assumed that provincial statistical bureaux adjusted GVIO totals as required to take account of boundary changes that resulted in GVIO gains or losses. Tientsin has been treated throughout the report as a provincial-level unit and GVIO data for Hopeh have been adjusted accordingly.

2. For a detailed description of the Chinese efforts to develop statistical reporting, see Li, Choh-ming, The Statistical System of Communist China (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1962).Google Scholar

3. For example, the deficiencies of Soviet GVIO and problems associated with it have been widely discussed by western scholars since the 1950s. The GVIO is also the method of measuring industrial production used in the PRC, according to Pe, K'o, “Kung-yeh ch'an-liang t'ung-chi” (“Industrial output statistics”), T'ung-chi kung-tso t'ung-hsin (Statistical Work Bulletin) (T'ung-chi), No. 11 (14 06 1956), p. 31Google Scholar. A very full description of Soviet GVIO is found in Greenslade, Rush V., “Industrial production statistics in the U.S.S.R.,” in Treml, Vladimir G. and Hardt, John P. (eds.), Soviet Economic Statistics (Durham, North Carolina: Duke University, 1972), pp. 155–94Google Scholar. Standard criticisms of the Soviet index of industrial production are reviewed in Seton, F., “The tempo of Soviet industrial expansion,” Bulletin of the Oxford Institute of Statistics, No. 20 (1958), pp. 1–28Google Scholar. An early discussion of gross value shortcomings is given in Gerschenkron, Alexander, A Dollar Index of Soviet Machinery Output: 1927/28 to 1937 (Santa Monica, California: Rand Corporation), R-127 (6 04 1951)Google Scholar. A comparison of gross value and value added indexes applied to the same data bases is made in Domar, E., “An index number tournament,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, No. 2 (81) (05 1967), pp. 169–88CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Domar declared a draw in this contest, noting that he had fully expected the gross value index to be badly beaten. From Domar's tournament it is clear that the deficiencies attributed to the gross value index by western scholars and noted by Soviet economists have not been given theoretical underpinnings.

4. In some cases products manufactured and consumed within an enterprise are included in the GVIO of the enterprise. These include all ores, coke, steel ingots, and other products produced and consumed in a single mill, ferrous and non-ferrous ores produced and consumed in iron and steel industry enterprises, and coal and petroleum refined and consumed in petroleum industry enterprises. These exceptions are outlined in Pe, K'o, “Kung-yeh ch'an-liang t'ung-chi,” p. 32.Google Scholar

5. For the few products that are included by value added, these deductions are in fact made.

6. Enterprise output is defined to include all finished and semi-finished products. With a few exceptions, such as shipbuilding, manufacturing of vehicles, and some other products of the machine-building industry, where production extends over a long period of time, products in process are not included in GVIO. For a discussion of these exceptions, see Pe, K'o, “Kung-yeh ch'an-liang t'ung-chi,” pp. 31–32Google Scholar, and Wei, Yüeh, “Kung-nung-yeh tsung-ch'an-chih” (“The gross value of industrial and agricultural output”), Hsüeh-hsi (Study), No. 4 (2 04 1956), p. 25.Google Scholar

7. Yin-ch'u, Ma, “Hsin jen-k'ou hin” (“New population theory”), Hsin Hua pan-yüeh-k'an (New China Semi-Monthly), No. 15 (10 08 1957), p. 40Google Scholar, translated in Current Background (CB), No. 469 (25 07 1957), p. 16.Google Scholar

8. See, for example, State Statistical Bureau (SSB), Summary Statistics Division, “Kuan-yü tsung-ch'an-chih ho ching-ch'an-chih ti yen-chiu” (“Research on gross and net output value”), T'ung-chi yen-chiu (Statistical Research), No. 2 (23 02 1958), pp. 27–28.Google Scholar

9. Chen-yü, Ch'en and Pi-hui, Chou (eds.), “Kuan-yü kung-yeh tsung-ch'anchih chi-suan fang-fa wen-t'i ti t'ao-lun”Google Scholar (“A discussion of problems concerning the method of calculating gross value of industrial output”), T'ung-chi, No. 24 (29 12 1956), p. 6.Google Scholar

10. Ibid. p. 8.

11. Ibid. p. 6.

12. An exception is that in some industries intermediate products are supposed to be entered in the GVIO of the enterprise. This practice introduces some additional double counting. Intermediate products of the iron and steel industry are enumerated in footnote 4 above.

13. Between 1949 and 1957 the GVIO of producer-goods branches of industry grew about 2½ times as fast as that of consumer-goods branches, according to Wei-ta ti shih-nien – Chung-hua jen-min kung-ho-kuo ching-chi ho wen-hua chien-she ch'eng-chiu ti t'ung-chi (The Great Ten Years – Statistics on Economic and Cultural Achievements in the People's Republic of China) (Peking, 1959), p. 79.Google Scholar

14. Ishikawa, Shigeru, National Income and Capital Formation in Mainland China (Tokyo: Institute of Asian Economic Affairs, 1965), Table 1–8, p. 66.Google Scholar

15. Yin-oh'u, Ma, “Hsin jen-k'ou lun”Google Scholar; and SSB, Summary Statistics Division, “Kuan-yü tsung-ch'an-chih ho ching-ch'an-chih ti yen-chiu,” p. 29Google Scholar. The average annual rates of growth given in these two sources differ from those given in SSB, The Great Ten Years, p. 17Google Scholar. Ma Yin-ch'u noted that the data he was using were preliminary estimates. The fact that the data for the years 1952–57 were published in February 1958 (SSB, Summary Statistics Division, “Kuan-yü tsungch'an-chih ho ching-ch'an-chih ti yen-chiu”) suggests that these figures were also preliminary estimates.

16. A small proportion of the difference of two percentage points may be due to the greater impact of new product prices when output is valued on a net rather than a gross value basis.

17. SSB, The Great Ten Years, p. 14.Google Scholar

18. Yin-ch'u, Ma, “Hsin jen-k'ou lun.”Google Scholar

19. Chen-yü, Ch'en and Pi-hui, Chou, “Kuan-yü kung-yeh tsung-ch'an-chih chi-suan fang-fa wen-t'i ti t'ao-lun,” pp. 6 and 8.Google Scholar

20. SSB, Summary Statistics Division, “Kuan-yü tsung-ch'an-chih ho chingch'an-chih ti yen-chiu,” p. 28.Google Scholar

21. An SSB branch-of-industry listing is given in SSB, Industrial Statistics Division, Kung-yeh t'ung-chi-hsüeh chiang-i (Lectures on the Study of Industrial Statistics) (Peking, 1958), pp. 32 and 35Google Scholar, and is translated in Emerson, John Philip, Nonagricultural Employment in Mainland China: 1949–1958 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Population Statistics Reports, 1965), Series P-90, No. 17, p. 211Google Scholar. Factory handicraft establishments are defined as industrial in State Planning Commission, Chung-hua jen-min kung-ho-kuo fachan kuo-min ching-chi ti ti-i-ke wu-nien chi-hua ti ming-tz'u chien-shih (A Short Glossary of Terminology of the First Five-Year Plan for Development of the National Economy of the People's Republic of China) (Peking, 1955), p. 2.Google Scholar

22. SSB, The Great Ten Years, p. 14.Google Scholar

23. State Planning Commission, National Economic Summary Planning Bureau, Methods Office, “Kuan-yü 1958 nien-tu kuo-min ching-chi chi-hua piao-ke chuyao pien-tung ch'ing-k'uang ti shuo-ming” (“An explanation of important changes in 1958 national economic plan forms”), Chi-hua ching-chi (Planned Economy), No. 8 (9 08 1957), p. 24.Google Scholar

24. The first discussions of the change in coverage appeared in three sources: Editorial Board, “Kuan-yü nung-yeh tsung-ch'an-chih chi-suan chung ti chi-ke chu-yao wen-t'i” (“Several important problems in the calculation of gross value of agricultural output”), T'ung-chi, No. 22 (29 11 1956), pp. 1–2Google Scholar; Mu-ch'iao, Hsüeh, “Ti-i-ke wu-nien chi-hua ch'i-chien wo-kuo t'ung-chi kung-tso ti ch'u-pu ching-yen ho chin-hou jen-wu” (“Initial experiences in agricultural statistical work in our country during the first Five-Year Plan period and future tasks”), T'ung-chi, No. 21 (14 11 1957), p. 18Google Scholar; and Mu-ch'iao, Hsüeh, “Pi-hsü ta-li kai-chin nung-yeh t'ung-chi kung-tso” (“We must make great efforts to improve agricultural statistical work”), T'ung-chi, No. 22 (29 11 1957), p. 11Google Scholar. The change was confirmed in SSB, The Great Ten Years, p. 14Google Scholar, and in Hui, Wu, “T'an she-pan kung-yeh tsung-ch'an-chih ti hsin chi-suan fangfa” (“A discussion of the new method of calculating the gross value of industrial output in commune-run industry”), Chi-hua yü t'ung-chi (Plans and Statistics), No. 9 (23 06 1959), pp. 31–33.Google Scholar

25. Hsien-hao, Liao, “Nung-yeh sheng-ch'an chi-hua piao-ke” (“Tabular forms for agricultural production planning”), Chi-hua ching-chi (Planned Economy), No. 4 (9 04 1957), p. 32Google Scholar; Keng-chin, Wang, “Wo tui nung-yeh tsung-ch'an-chih chi-suan fang-fa ti chi-tien i-chien” (“My views on the method of calculating the gross value of agricultural output”), T'ung-chi, No. 4 (28 02 1957), p. 3.Google Scholar

26. Keng-chin, Wang, “Wo tui nung-yeh tsung-ch'an-chih chi-suan fang-fa ti chi-tien i-chien,” p. 3Google Scholar. Handicrafts consumed by producers accounted for 11·5 per cent and preliminary processing of agricultural products for 3·9 per cent of the GVAO.

27. In 1957, agricultural output made up 43 per cent of the gross value of industry and agriculture (GVIAO), but only 36 per cent in 1958, the year the coverage of agriculture and industry was changed, according to the absolute figures given in SSB, The Great Ten Years, p. 14.Google Scholar

28. Hui, Wu, “T'an she-pan kung-yeh tsung-ch'an-chih ti hsin chi-suan fang-fa.”Google Scholar

29. Chen-yü, Ch'en, “Hai-shih kung-ch'an-fa hao?” (“Is the factory reporting method still O.K.?”), Chi-hua yu t'ung-chi, No. 4 (23 02 1959), p. 37.Google Scholar

30. Chih-ming, Li, “Kuan-yü kung-yeh sheng-ch'an fan-t'u ti hua-fen ho kungyeh tsung-ch'an-chih chi-suan fang-fa ti i-chien” (“An opinion on the scope of industrial output and the method of calculating the gross value of industrial output”), Chi-hua yü t'ung-chi, No. 4 (23 02 1959), p. 37.Google Scholar

31. The 1958 national GVIO figures were compiled by the new method, according to Hui, Wu, “T'an she-pan kung-yeh tsung-ch'an-chih ti hsin chi-suan fang-fa,” p. 33.Google Scholar

32. Ibid. pp. 32–33.

33. An-hui jih-pao (Anhwei Daily), 12 02 and 21 11 1959Google Scholar, and Nan-fang jih-pao (Southern Daily), 12 11 1959.Google Scholar

34. See, e.g., Chiang-hsi jih-pao (Kiangsi Daily), 23 01 and 1 07 1959.Google Scholar

35. Chih-ming, Li, “Kuan-yü kung-yeh sheng-ch'an fan-t'u ti hua-fen ho kungyeh tsung-ch'an-chih chi-suan fang-fa ti i-chien.”Google Scholar

36. Chen-yü, Ch'en and Pi-hui, Chou, “Kuan-yü kung-yeh tsung-ch'an-chih chisuan fang-fa wen-t'i ti t'ao-lun,” p. 6.Google Scholar

37. The relationship between the growth rates of producer and consumer goods branches is given in footnote 13 above.

38. Yeh-fang, Sun, “Ts'ung ‘tsung-ch'an-chih’ t'an-ch'i” (“A discussion starting with ‘gross value of output’”), T'ung-chi, No. 13 (14 07 1957), p. 12.Google Scholar

39. SSB, Industrial Statistics Division, “1957 nien kung-yeh ch'an-p'in pupien chia-ko pien-chih kung-tso chung chi-ko wen-t'i ti shuo-ming” (“An explanation of several problems concerning the establishment of 1957 fixed prices for industrial products”), T'ung-chi, No. 19 (14 09 1957), p. 13.Google Scholar

40. Some important new products manufactured on a trial production basis during this period are listed in SSB, The Great Ten Years, pp. 93–94.Google Scholar

41. A steam turbine engine cost 1,320,000 yüan in trial production in 1955 but only 380,000 yüan when produced in quantity in 1956, according to Jo-i, Fan, “More on the price policy for heavy industry products,” Ching-chi yen-chiu (Economic Research), No. 3 (17 June 1957), translated in Extracts From China Mainland Magazines (Hong Kong), No. 93 (6 08 1957), p. 30.Google Scholar

42. Lack of adequate constant prices for new products was one of the reasons for the adoption of the new 1957 constant prices to compile GVIO data, according to I-po, Po, “Kuan-yü 1958 nien-tu kuo-min ching-chi chi-hua ts'aoan ti pao-kao” (“Draft plan for development of the national economy in 1958”), Hsin Hua pan-yüeh-k'an (New China Semi-Monthly), No. 5 (10 03 1958), p. 15Google Scholar, and New China News Agency (English) (Peking), 13 02 1958Google Scholar, in CB, No. 494 (19 02 1958), p. 9.Google Scholar

43. The price reductions are derived from data given in SSB, The Great Ten Years, p. 76.Google Scholar

44. SSB, Industrial Statistical Division, “1957 nien kung-yeh ch'an-p'in pu-pien chia-ko pien-chih kung-tso chung chi-ko wen-t'i ti shuo-ming,” p. 13.Google Scholar

45. In English translations of Chinese reports of percentage increases the Chinese character pei (Standard Telegraphic Code 0223) remains a source of great confusion, because it is frequently mistranslated. For example, a phrase such as “pi 1957-nien tseng-chang le ssu-pei” is often translated incorrectly as “was four times the 1957 figure” or sometimes, again incorrectly, “increased four times the 1957 figure,” whereas it should be rendered “there was a fourfold increase compared with the year 1957.” The latter translation calls for a multiplier of 5, just as a onefold increase requires a multiplier of 2. The confusion is compounded by the use of pei in statistical tabular statements where it does in fact mean “times,” as the comparisons made in SSB, The Great Ten Years, p. 13Google Scholar, clearly illustrate.

46. Detailed reports on year-by-year implementation of the first Five-Year Plan were published in most provincial newspapers. The collections of provincial newspapers in the Library of Congress, the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, the University of Michigan at Ann Arbor, and the Center for Research Libraries in Chicago are nearly complete for 1956 and 1957.

47. The index was based on data from SSB, The Great Ten Years, p. 14.Google Scholar

48. British Broadcasting Corporation, Summary of World Broadcasts, Part 3, The Far East (FE)/Weekly Economic Report (W), 388 (19 10 1966)/A/26.Google Scholar

49. Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Daily Report, People's Republic of China (FBIS), 9 07 1971, p. E2.Google Scholar

50. FBIS, 16 11 1971, p. E 6.Google Scholar

51. FBIS, 15 01 1973, p. E 6.Google Scholar

52. FBIS, 8 01 1974, p. B 7.Google Scholar

53. FBIS, 24 07 1973, p. E 1.Google Scholar

54. Wei, Chi, “We are advancing,” Peking Review, No. 39 (29 09 1972), p. 11.Google Scholar

55. The multiplier of 11·7 is reported in SSB, The Great Ten Years, p. 14.Google Scholar

56. Absolute numbers are given in ibid. pp. 13–14.