*. I am grateful to Dr C. B. Howe for the valuable advice he gave me when this article was being prepared, and for his comments on reading the final draft. Dr J. S. Aird kindly gave me his assessment of the changes in the boundary of Hopei province which have occurred since 1957. Thirdly, I must thank the two referees who read the manuscript for the Editor of The China Quarterly. Their expert comments and suggestions led to important revisions being made in the article.

1. Among the many reports available see especially Jen-min jih-pao (People's Daily), 30 September 1970; ibid. 13 December and 29 September 1974. The latter, which contains extremely important production data, is reprinted in Tsai she-huichu-yi ta too shang ch'ien-chin (Advancing along the Great Socialist Road), Hong Kong, 1974, pp. 40–47Google Scholar;

2. See Jen-min, 13 December 1974 and 10 January 1975; alsoPeking Review, No. 1 (1975), pp. 8–12Google Scholar;

3. Not all the claims are consistent. For example, Jen-min, 31 December 1973, gives 1967 as the date of Honan's achievement of self-sufficiency, while Kuangming jih-pao (Enlightenment Daily), 8 04 1973Google Scholar, states that the province attained “ initial” self-sufficiency in 1972. Other reports, however, suggest 1970–71 as the date: Jen-min, 1 October 1971, and Peking Review, No. 40 (1972), p. 25.

4. Again, some sources claim that Hopei became self-sufficient earlier than 1970–71. For example, the dates 1967–68 are given by Survey of the China Mainland Press (SCMP), 4111, 29 January 1968, while a book published in 1973 reported that Hopei was self-sufficient in 4 out of the 6 years between 1965 and 1971:Hai ho chu-pien (Great Changes in the Hai River), Peking, 1973, p. 10Google Scholar. Peking Review, No. 23 (1975), p. 5Google Scholar, names 1970 as the date for self-sufficiency, but a 1972 broadcast gave 1971 as the date, adding that the province still had to begin to “ make a contribution to the State “: Survey of World Broadcasts (SWB), 5 April 1972.

5. SWB, 16 January 1974.

6. Peking Review, No. 34 (1974), p. 14Google Scholar;

7. Especially Jen-min, 29 September 1974.

8. “Talk at an enlarged meeting of the Political Bureau,” 20 March 1966. Mao Tse-tung ssu-hsiang wan-sui (Long Live Mao Tse-tung's Thought), 1969 (hereafter WS 1969), p. 638Google Scholar. See also Mao's “Notes on political economy” (1961–62), in Mao Tse-tung ssu-hsiang wan-sui (Long Live Mao Tse-tung's Thought), 1967 (hereafter WS 1967), p. 227 in which he stated that it was “ dangerous “ to rely on other provinces (and other countries) for food.

9. “ Great successes on China's grain front,” Jen-min, 1 October 1971.

10. Evidence in support of these points may be found inWalker, Kenneth R., Provincial Grain Output in China 1952–1957: A Statistical Compilation, Contemporary China Institute, School of Oriental and African Studies, Research Notes and Studies, London, No. 3, 1977Google Scholar;

11. Tse-tung, Mao, “Speech at the Ninth Plenum of the Eighth Central Committee,” 18 01 1961, WS 1967, pp. 258–66Google Scholar;

12. “ Directive issued by the General Political Department on how to do well the political and ideological work of army units stationed in seriously affected disaster areas and of those whose families are in disaster areas,” 2 December 1960, pp. 15–19, in Chester Cheng, J. (ed.), The Politics of the Chinese Red Army: A Translation from the Bulletin of Activities of the People's Liberation Army (Stanford: Hoover Institution Publications, 1966)Google Scholar. See also “Indorsement and transmission by the General Political Department of comrade Wang Tung-hsing's report on ideological conditions in the central garrison “ (November 1960), ibid. pp. 11–12. “Materials obtained from investigating the First Company of the First Battalion of the 403rd Regiment” (30 January 1961), ibid. pp. 283–95, contains further references to soldiers’ families dying of dropsy and edema.

13. “ Down with Wen Min-sheng, eager vanguard in the restoration of capitalism, Honan paper's further denunciation of Wen Min-sheng,” Chengchow, 20 January 1967, SWB/FE 2603.

14. “Honan: individual operations. How did the Black Wind start? “ SCMP, supplement 193.

15. “ Facts about Liu Chten-hsiin's crimes anti-Party, anti-socialist element, counter-revolutionary and double-dealer.” Pamphlet published by the General Command Headquarters of Revolutionary Rebels of Organs of the CCP Honan Provincial Committee, 12 March 1967. Survey of China Mainland Magazines (SCMM), supplement 32. Liu was reported to have said that it was not even possible to “ tear off a leaf to cover your backside.”

16. “ Honan: individual operations.” T'ao Chu also referred to the consequent migration of population out of the famine areas and to a high death rate among draught animals.

17. Honan: Honan jih-pao (Honan Daily), 30 December 1957. Hopei: Speech by Lin Tieh at the National People's Congress, Hsin-hua yiieh-pao (New China Monthly), No. 8 (1955), pp. 77–78Google Scholar. Shantung: Shu T'ung's speech to the National People's Congress, ibid. pp. 64–65.

18. Valuable data are given byKang, Chao: Agricultural Production in Communist China 1949–1965 (Madison: The University of Wisconsin Press, 1970), pp. 135–36 and p. 258. See also materials prepared for the army: “ A look at the great achievements of water conservation in northern provinces,” transl. inGoogle ScholarCheng, J. Chester, The Politics of the Chinese Red Army, pp. 528–29Google Scholar;

19. Honan jih-pao, 30 12 1957Google Scholar.

20. Chung-kuo nung-pao {Chinese Agricultural News), No. 16 (1954), p. 9, and No. 2 (1956), pp. 12–16;Google ScholarChi-lin jih-pao (Kirin Daily), 22 01 1958Google Scholar; Ta-chung jih-pao (Mass Daily), 9 03 1957Google Scholar; Nung-ts'un kung-tso t'ung-hsun (Rural Work Bulletin), No. 7 (1957), pp. 1–5Google Scholar;

21. Ta-chung jih-pao, 20 January 1958.

22. Shu T'ung: speech to the National People's Congress.

23. Sources of data for cotton sown area and production are given in Appendix 3.

24. This was confirmed in an interview given to the author in November 1974 by Han Chih-chung of the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. It is interesting to note that the 1967 cotton area of Shantung was 12% below that of the 1950s and that of Honan in 1965–66 was 37% below the level of the 1950s. See Agricultural Acreage in Communist China, 1949–1968: A Statistical Compilation (Washington D.C.: Central Intelligence Agency, 1969).

25. “ Shantung north of the Hwai river extends its rice sown area,” Jen-min, 29 January 1958.

26. Ministry of Agriculture, “ Summary of a technical conference on rice production throughout the entire country” in Shui-tao sheng-ch'an chi-shu tt'mt- k'ao tzu-liao, compiled by the Grain Production Section of the Miniftry of Agriculture, Peking 1956, pp. 7–13.

27. Honan jih-pao, 30 December 1957.

28. Nung-yeh chih-shih (Agricultural Knowledge), (Shantung provincial publication), 1958, No. 6.

29. Of the many references available on this subject see especiallyOuafchih, Sung (ed.), Hua-pei ching-chi ti-li {An Economic Geography of North CM), Peking, 1957, p. 159, which records the policy in Honan of substituing maim far kaoliang; Shu T'ung “ Overcome rightist thoughts.” A report in the SCMP (Mti. 1956, 4 June 1956) states that an important factor in the attainment of grain self-sufficiency by Hopei would be the substitution of maize, potatoes and rice for lower yielding crops; see alsoGoogle ScholarShui-lung, Liu“ Greatly reform the planting of rice and speedily increase grain output in the low yielding areas north of the Itwtt River,” Chung-kuo nung-pao, No. 10 (1958), pp. 3–8Google Scholar;

30. Editorial Hopei jih-pao (Hopei Daily), 14 February 1957. Also a speech of Deputy Minister of Agriculture “ Several problems in the abundant rice harvest,”Chung-kuo nung-pao, No. 4 (1959), pp. 8–12. Opposition among North China peasants to the extension of rice during the 1950s is mentioned in “ How Anhwei reaped an abundant rice harvest,”Google ScholarNung-ts'un kung-tso t'ung-hsiin, No. 18 (1958), pp. 6–9 and p. 29Google Scholar;

31. For example, Ta-chung jih-pao, 1 April 1957; An Economic Geography of North China, p. 59; and “ A discussion of the grain question in China during the transition,”Liang-shih (Grain), No. 1 (1957), pp. 20–25Google Scholar;

32. “Increase the rice area to change the low production situation in North China,” Jen-min, 24 May 1958.

33. An article in Hopei jih-pao, 22 February 1957, emphasizes the merits of millet and in “ Actively extend the potato sown area; greatly increase grain output,” ibid. 11 March 1958, a warning is given against reducing the millet sown area in view of its importance as a source of raw materials, etc.

34. Liang-shih, No. 19 (1956), p. 9Google Scholar;

35. At the height of the Great Leap Forward, when the grain problem of Shantung was said to have been solved, a shift in peasants’ consumption from ” mainly potatoes “ to wheat and preferred coarse grains was advocated, along with the restriction of potatoes for use as animal feed and for industrial pro- cessing: T'an Ch'i-lung “ Unite, successfully advance and strive for successes in next year's battle,” Ta-chung jih-pao, 28 November 1958. This is exactly what Mao told Hopei peasants to do in August 1958 when he visited an area which I had reported a massive increase in grain output: “ Chairman Mao comes to I Hsttshui,” Jen-min, 11 August 1958. An interesting analysis of the relationship between income and the consumption of potatoes, relative to other grains, in pre-communist Shantung is given in Yang, Martin C., A Chinese Village, London, 1949, Chapter IVGoogle Scholar.

36. “Thoughts release 100 Flowers,” Ta-chung jih-pao, 26 April 1957; “Ministry of Food calls for a conference and decides to expand its business in potatoes and other tubers,” Jen-min, 12 June 1958, which describes the expansion of potato consumption as “ a political task in food administration work to dispel misgivings and correct erroneous views about potatoes.” Shanghai authorities stated that the consumption of potatoes as part of the urban grain ration would be “ a good help “ to peasants and stipulated that they could be converted to grain equivalent at 6: 1 (to make their consumption attractive, bearing in mind that the usual national weighting was 4: 1); “ When making economies in the use of grain discuss the consumption of potatoes,” Hsin-wen jih-pao (Daily News), 8 October 1957. See also “ Minister of Food's report to a conference on grain,” Liang-shih pao (Grain News), No. 89, 5 November 1959.

37. Communication to author from Han Chih-chung.

38. Wheat sown area for 1972 is given in SWB, 5 April 1972.

39. Wheat sown areas are given as follows: for 1972: Jen-min 5 November 1972; for 1974: SWB, 14 November 1973.

40. Wheat sown area in 1972–73 is given in Jen-min, 5 November 1972.

41. This is made clear by “ Our country's rice,”Ti-li chih-shih (Geographical Knowledge), No. 1 (1973), pp. 1–3Google Scholar;

42. “ Before the Cultural Revolution, whenever a proposal was put forward to plant rice on tens of thousands of mou of chalky, saline, waterlogged land situated on the north bank of the Yellow River, time and again it was obstructed by the clique who toed the capitalist line. They wildly maintained that ‘a piece of land feeds the men who live on it, the south produces rice and the north produces millet and maize: this is an unalterable law of nature. As for those who now fill their mouths with potatoes but who wish to switch to rice - that is just not on.’ Lui Shao-ch'i and his clique madly stood out against Chairman Mao's proletarian, revolutionary line and sabotaged the production of rice, thus provoking the unprecedented anger of the poor and lower middle peasants.”Wei ko-ming chung hao shui-tao {Plant Rice for the Revolution), Peking, 1971, pp. 2–3Google Scholar;

43. Until the campaign began against the “ gang of four “ the Chinese stressed the speed with which agricultural modernization in North China had been carried out since the Cultural Revolution in spite of opposition from Liu Shao-ch'i and his group. More recently the focus has been on the way in which Chiang Ch'ing and her associates have impeded agricultural development in 1973 and 1974. Against such opposition however, agricultural improvements are still being claimed. NCNA 111006 (1975) gives an account of how land affected by alkalinity and salinity in the three provinces was reclaimed. Details of massive increases in agricultural investment, of the local construction of 200 small scale fertilizer factories and of the extension of mechanical irrigation are given in Jen-min, 29 September 1974.

44. See Field, R. M., “ A note on the population of China,” CQ, No. 38 (04–06 1969), pp. 158–63; “Provincial population figures,” Current Scene, Vol. XIV, No. 11 (November 1976), pp. 16–19; and J. S. Aird, “ Recent provincial population figures,” unpublished draft manuscript. I am grateful to Dr Aird for the opportunity to read this unpublished paperCrossRefGoogle Scholar.

45. Colin Clark has argued that there was possibly a population decrease at this time and he cites the experience of the Soviet Union in the early 1930s in support of his argument. SeeClark, Colin“ Economic growth in Communist China,” CQ, No. 21 (01–03 1965), pp. 148–67CrossRefGoogle Scholar;

46. J. S. Aird, unpublished draft manuscript.

47. Especially for Hopei and possibly Shantung.

48. Chen Yung-kuei, “Thoroughly criticize the ‘gang of four’ and stimulate a new high-tide in the campaign to establish Tachai-type counties throughout the country.” Kuang-ming jih-pao, 24 December 1976. Note, too, that Chen Yung-kuei refers to the wrecking of agriculture by the “ gang of four “ in several provinces “ for many years.”

49. And imports over the period of eight years covered by 1950–57 averaged 0–903 million tons per year. Imports for 1950, 1951 and 1952 are given in Hopei jih-pao, 10 May 1957.

50. Liu Tzu-hou, “ Take the messhalls as the central point and organize the standard of living in an overall manner,” Liang-shih pao, No. 135 (18 04 1960), p. 135Google Scholar.

51. Estimated from the known import figures for the years 1950–57 inclusive and the (rounded) figure for 1949–67 in “Rational distribution of food grain,”Peking Review, No. 1 (1975), pp. 12–13Google Scholar;

52. “ Honan Communist Party conference criticizes rightist-opportunist Pan Fu-sheng, anti-Party, anti-Socialist group,” Honan jih-pao, 4 July 1957.

53. See Liang-shih pao, No. 72 (9 07 1959)Google Scholar and ibid. No. 111 (2 January 1960), p. 2.

54. Liang-shih pao, No. 126 (17 03 1960), p. 2Google Scholar;

55. The “ excessive “ extraction of grain in Honan was specifically mentioned as one of the “ four highs “ by Mao Tse-tung in his speech to the Ninth Plenum of the Eighth Central Committee, 18 January 1961. (The other “highs” related to production targets, production estimates and to grain usage.)

56. “ Facts about Liu Chien-hsiin's crimes,” p. 15.

57. Kuang-ming jih-pao, 18 April 1973.

58. Shantung exported 0–185 million tons of grain in 1955: Shu T'ung's speech to the National People's Congress.

59. Sources of data on the number and composition of draught animals are as follows: Honan: (a)Numbers: 1953: figures An Economic Geography of North China, p. 162 and figures for the arable area of the province in 1953. 1954: Honan jih-pao, 17 January 1958. 1955 and 1956: ibid. 18 July 1957 (report of the State Statistical Bureau). 1957: from figures in Honan jih-pao, 17 January 1957 and 1956 figure, (b) The composition of draught animals is indicated in An Economic Geography of North China, p. 162. Hopei: (a) Numbers: 1953: Hopei jih-pao, 8 January 1958. 1954:Chung-kuo nung-yeh chi-hsieh-hua wen-t'i (Problems of Agricultural Mechanization in China) compiled by the Mechanization Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture, Paoting, 1958, p. 44 and a figure for the arable area. 1955: Hopei jih-pap, 7 April 1956. 1956: an approximate figure estimated from the number of “ working beasts “ and a rough “ working beasts ratio.” The former is from Teng Tzu-hui “ Summing up report at a conference on animal production,” Hsin-hua pan-yueh k'an (New China Semi-Monthly), No. 124 (1958), No. 2, pp. 101–103. 1957: approximate figure, from Chung-kuo nungpao (1958), No. 5. (b) Composition given in An Economic Geography of North China, p. 60. Shantung: (a) Numbers: 1953: from arable area and figures in An Economic Geography of North China, p. 129. 1954: not available. 1955: len-min, 15 March 1957 and figure for 1956. 1956: Ta-chung jih-pao, 17 August 1957. 1957: Problems of Agricultural Mechanization, p. 169 and arable area,(b) Composition: Ta-chung jih-pao, 9 August 1957 (State Statistical Bureau Report).

60. There is rich evidence concerning the declining health and strength of draught animals in North China. See especially Hsiao Yu “ How to allocate agricultural investment,” Chi-hua ching-chi (Planned Economy) (1957), No. 9, pp. 5–8. “ Central Committee and State Council directive on the question of draught animals,” 19 March 1957. Hsin-hua pan-yiieh k'an, No. 106 (1957), No. 8, pp. 76–78 and Problems of Agricultural Mechanization, pp. 34—35 and p. 44.

61. Especially useful in making these estimates were articles in the following: for Honan: Honan jih-pao, 29 September 1956, 30 December 1957 and 17 January 1958; also Chung-kuo nung-pao, No. 14 (1958), pp. 26–27. For Hopei: Hopei jih-pao, 7 April 1956, 21 March 1957 and 9 January 1958; also Hsin-hua pan-yueh k'an, No. 124 (1958), No. 2, pp. 101–103. For Shantung: Ta-chung jih-pao, 26 April 1957, 17 August 1957 and 20 January 1958.

62. That is, for the Region we have deducted on average 0–752 million tons per year, which is equal to 1–7% of average annual output 1970–75; for Honan the deduction was 0–315 milion tons per anum (1–9% of average output 1970–75); and for Hopei: 0–278 million tons (21% of annual output 1970–75).

63. “ Proper storage of potatoes urged,” Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FB1S), 24 October 1957.

64. Shen, T. H., Agricultural Resources of China (New York: Ithaca, 1951), p. 211Google Scholar;

65. Calorific values of crops have been taken from Shih-wu ch'eng-fen piao (Tables of Food Composition) compiled by the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Peking, 1963. Extraction rates used are as follows: rice 70%, wheat and millet 85%, kaoliang 77%, maize, potatoes and soya beans 100%. Note that the inclusion of soya beans has important nutritional implications. They provide 60% more calories per kilogram of “ raw “ grain than rice, partly because of the difference between their two extraction rates. And, although it is not discussed here, soya beans are rich in protein.

66. A rice sown area of around 0–2 million hectares is suggested in Shen-chou chii-pien: Hsin chung-kuo erh-shih-chiu-ke sheng, shih, tzu-chih chit chiehshao (Great changes in the Fatherland An Introduction to the Twenty-nine Provinces, (Autonomous) Cities and Regions of New China), Hong Kong, 1975, pp. 89–90. (Hereafter Great Changes.)Google Scholar

67. Derived from the percentage rise in exports in 1973 over 1972, given in “ A turn-around in the south-to-north transfer is a great change on the grain front,” Jen-min, 10 January 1975. The export figure for 1973 is in “ Honan, Hopei and Shantung's basic construction in fields is going on quickly and well,” Jen-min, 13 December 1974. They have been adjusted from “ commercial” to unhusked grain at a ratio of 86%.

68. Energy and Protein Requirements. Report of a Joint FAO/WHO Ad Hoc Expert Committee. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, 1973, p. 82.

69. Clark, Colin and Haswell, M. R., The Economics of Subsistence Agriculture, Third Edition (London: Macmillan, 1967), p. 15. This is rather less than the figure of 2,365 calories Clark gives for the same population in his article “ Economic growth in Communist China,” CQ (1965)Google Scholar.

70. “ Principles for organizing the planning of grain circulation,” Chi-hua ching-chi, No. 2 (1958), pp. 24–27. This was in line with levels used by the FAO at that time but they were subsequently discarded in the west as much too high. It is doubtful whether the Chinese Planning Commission would cite such a high figure today.

71. “The general rear services department's report on the prevention and treatment of edema throughout the army,” 20 February 1961, transl. inCheng, J. Chester (ed.), The Politics of the Chinese Red Army, pp. 295–301Google Scholar;

72. Ibid.

73. See Energy and Protein Requirements, Annex 5, “ Some values of energy expenditure in everyday activities,” pp. 109–111. Also The Economics of Subsistence Agriculture provides much material as does Clark, Colin, Starvation or Plenty? (New York: Taplinger Publishing, 1970)Google ScholarPubMed. Especially interesting are the data collected by the Swedish Forest Research Institute which compared the calorie requirements of Swedish and Indian males engaged in logging (8,000 per head for the working day in Sweden and 4,704 in India), ibid. p. 16.

74. But note that where root crops such as potatoes (including yams and taros) play an important part in what is essentially a diet of coarse grains-as was the case in Shantung during the 1950s and may still be the case in many areas of our Region - an adequate supply of calories does not necessarily mean that there will be an adequate supply of proteins. SeeClark, and Haswell, , The Economics of Subsistence Agriculture, p. 7Google Scholar;

75. And, to repeat a point made at the beginning of the article, it would appear that Tientsin and Peking still have to obtain perhaps the bulk of their grain either from abroad or from other areas of China.