Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-2plfb Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-22T22:36:46.688Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Demystifying China's Defence Spending: Less Mysterious in the Aggregate*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 March 2013

Adam P. Liff*
Affiliation:
Princeton University.
Andrew S. Erickson
Affiliation:
US Naval War College.
*
Email: [email protected] (corresponding author)

Abstract

China's limited transparency concerning its defence spending harms strategic trust, but foreign analysts often lose sight of important realities. Specific details remain unclear, but China's defence spending overall is no mystery – it supports PLA modernization and personnel development as well as its announced objectives of securing China's homeland and asserting control over contested territorial and maritime claims, with a focus on the Near Seas (the Yellow, East, and South China seas). This article offers greater context and perspective for Chinese and Western discussions of China's rise and concomitant military build-up through a nuanced and comprehensive assessment of its defence spending and military transparency.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © The China Quarterly 2013 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

Adam Liff thanks the University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation for generous research travel support. The authors thank Richard Bitzinger, Dennis Blasko, Felix Boecking, Amy Chang, Patrick Chovanec, Thomas Christensen, Roger Cliff, Gabriel Collins, Abraham Denmark, Arthur Ding, M. Taylor Fravel, Nan Li, Darren Lim, James Mulvenon, Barry Naughton, William Norris, Michael O'Hanlon, Suzanne Patrick, Robert Ross, Sean Sullivan, one anonymous American expert and two anonymous reviewers for comments on earlier drafts. They owe special thanks to Yunzhuang Zhang and Nancy Hearst for suggesting useful Chinese-language sources. Unless explicitly cited otherwise, the views expressed in this article are solely those of the authors.

References

Bitzinger, Richard A. 2003. “Just the facts, ma'am: the challenge of analysing and assessing Chinese military expenditures.” The China Quarterly 173, 164175.Google Scholar
Blasko, Dennis J., Freeman, Chas W. Jr., Horowitz, Stanley A., Medeiros, Evan S. and Mulvenon, James C.. Defense-Related Spending in China: A Preliminary Analysis and Comparison with American Equivalents. The United States-China Policy Foundation. http://www.uscpf.org/v2/pdf/defensereport.pdf.Google Scholar
Blasko, Dennis J. 2012a. The Chinese Army Today: Tradition and Transformation for the 21st Century (New York: Routledge).Google Scholar
Blasko, Dennis J. 2012b. “U.S. and Chinese approaches to peacekeeping and stability operations.” In Goldstein, Lyle J. (ed.), Not Congruent but Quite Complementary: U.S. and Chinese Approaches to Nontraditional Security, 87101. Newport, RI: U.S. Naval War College China Maritime Studies Institute.Google Scholar
Chen, Bingfu. 2005. “Xifang guojia dui Zhongguo guofang zhichu de cesuan: chayi yu wenti” (Estimates of China's national defence expenditures by Western countries: differences and problems). In Zhongguo guofang jingjixue: 2004 (China Defence Economics: 2004). Beijing: Jingji kexue chubanshe, 8394.Google Scholar
Chen, Sean, and Feffer, John. 2009. “China's military spending: soft rise or hard threat?Asian Perspective 33 (4), 4767.Google Scholar
Chen, Weifeng, chief ed. 1997. Junfei guanlixue (Military expenditure management). Beijing: Jiefangjun chubanshe.Google Scholar
Chinanews, com. 2010. “Guofangbu guanwang: Zhongguo guofangfei kexue heli wanquan gongkai touming” (Ministry of Defence official website: China's scientific and rational defence spending completely public and transparent”), 5 March, http://www.chinanews.com/gn/news/2010/03-05/2154879.shtml.Google Scholar
Information Office of the State Council (PRC). 2006. China's National Defense in 2006. english.chinamil.com.cn/site2/special-reports/2007gfbps/index.htm. Accessed 12 September 2012.Google Scholar
Information Office of the State Council (PRC). 2009 China's National Defense in 2008. http://www.china.org.cn/government/whitepaper/2009-01/21/content_17162799.htm.Google Scholar
Crane, Keith, Cliff, Roger, Medeiros, Evan, Mulvenon, James and Overholt, William. 2005. Modernizing China's Military: Opportunities and Constraints. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.Google Scholar
Garnaut, John. 2012. “Rotting from within.” Foreign Policy. 16 April. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/04/16/rotting_from_within. Accessed 20 September 2012.Google Scholar
Gu, Jianyi, and Bingfu, Chen. 2006. “Yonghao guanhao junfei: quanmian tigao junfei shiyong xiaoyi” (Use and manage military spending well: increase the effectiveness of military spending comprehensively). Caijingjie 8, 5154.Google Scholar
Guo, Da. 2010. “Jiedu Zhongguo 2010 nian guofangfei yusuan” (Deciphering China's FY2010 defence budget), Xinmin wanbao, 18 March 2010. xmwb.news365.com.cn/jjlw/201003/t20100318_2651453.htm. Accessed 20 September 2012.Google Scholar
Hu, Angang, and Taoxiong, Liu. 2003. “Zhongguo guofang jianshe dada zhihou yu jingji jianshe” (China's national defence construction lags far behind its economic construction). Zhongguo guofang jingji 2, 25.Google Scholar
Huang, Ruixin, and Xibin, Zhang. 2008. “Dui woguo junfei zengzhang xingzhi de zairenshi” (Understand anew the nature of the growth of China's military spending), Jiefang junbao, 26 February.Google Scholar
IISS (International Institute for Strategic Studies). 2006. The Military Balance 2006. Oxford: Routledge for IISS.Google Scholar
IISS. 2010. The Military Balance 2010. Oxford: Routledge for IISS.Google Scholar
IISS. 2012. The Military Balance 2012. Oxford: Routledge for IISS.Google Scholar
IMF (International Monetary Fund). 2012. “World Economic Outlook Database April 2012.” http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/01/weodata/index.aspx. Accessed 29 September 2012.Google Scholar
Janes.com 2012. “China defence budget,” Jane's Defence Budgets (Jane's Information Group), 2 July 2012, www.janes.com. Accessed 26 July 2012.Google Scholar
Jiang, Luming, and Weihai, Wang. 2012. “Ruhe kandai Zhongguo guofangfei zengzhang” (How to view the growth of China's national defence expenses), Guangming ribao, 20 March, http://theory.people.com.cn/GB/136458/17433560.html. Accessed 15 September 2012.Google Scholar
Kardon, Isaac B. 2010. “China's emerging debate on military transparency.” China Brief 10 (18), 810.Google Scholar
Kiselycznyk, Michael, and Saunders, Phillip C.. 2010. Assessing Chinese Military Transparency. Washington, DC: Institute for National Strategic Studies.Google Scholar
Li, Ling, Sheng, Zhou, and Yu, Wang. 2011. “Zhongguo guofangfei fudan de ‘shuangchongxing’ fenxi” (Analysis of China's ‘dualistic’ defence expenditure burden). Junshi jingji yanjiu (July), 1215.Google Scholar
Li, Yingcheng, Fei, Mao, and Li, Yuan. 2010. “Jiyu guojia anquan de hexie shehui caizheng zhengce” (Harmonious society financial policy based on national security). Junshi jingji yanjiu (April), 1619.Google Scholar
Lu, Zhoulai, and Liang, Ouyang. 2006. “Junfei kaizhi jueding de xingudian moxing ji dui Zhongguo dalu de jingyan yanjiu” (A neoclassical model of military spending decisions and research on mainland China's economy). In Luming, Jiang (ed.), Zhongguo Guofang Jingjixue: 2005 (Chinese Defence Economics: 2005). Beijing: Zhongguo Caizheng Jingji Chubanshe, 3051.Google Scholar
National Intelligence Council. 2012. Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds. www.dni.gov/nic/globaltrends. Accessed 12 February 2013.Google Scholar
“Northeast Asia Defense Transparency Project.” igcc.ucsd.edu/research/regional-diplomacy/neasia-defense-transparency-project/. Accessed 12 September 2012.Google Scholar
Office of the Secretary of Defense. 2002. Military Power of the People's Republic of China. Annual Report to Congress.Google Scholar
Office of the Secretary of Defense. 2006. Military Power of the People's Republic of China. Annual Report to Congress.Google Scholar
Office of the Secretary of Defense. 2009. Military Power of the People's Republic of China. Annual Report to Congress.Google Scholar
Office of the Secretary of Defense. 2010. Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China. Annual Report to Congress.Google Scholar
Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller). 2012. National Defense Budget Estimates for FY 2013. March 2012. comptroller.defense.gov/defbudget/fy2013/FY13_Green_Book.pdf. Accessed 29 September 2012.Google Scholar
Pugh, Philip. 1986. The Cost of Seapower: The Influence of Money on Naval Affairs from 1815 to the Present Day. London: Conway Maritime Press.Google Scholar
Rumsfeld, Donald. 2005. “The Hon Donald Rumsfeld.” Speech at 6th International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Shangri-la Dialogue, Singapore, 4 June 2005. http://www.iiss.org/conferences/the-shangri-la-dialogue/shangri-la-dialogue-archive/shangri-la-dialogue-2005/2005-speeches/first-plenary-session-the-hondonald-rumsfeld. Accessed 12 September 2012.Google Scholar
Shambaugh, David L. 2004. Modernizing China's Military Progress, Problems, and Prospects. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
State Statistical Bureau and State Science and Technology Commission, ed. 2011. Zhongguo keji tongji nianjian (China Statistical Yearbook on Science and Technology). Beijing: China Statistical Press.Google Scholar
SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute). 2009. SIPRI Yearbook 2009. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.Google Scholar
SIPRI. 2012. “Rise in international arms transfers is driven by Asian demand, says SIPRI,” 19 March 2012, http://www.sipri.org/media/pressreleases/rise-in-international-arms-transfers-is-driven-by-asian-demand-says-sipri. Accessed 20 September 2012.Google Scholar
Sun, Huangtian. 2009. “Guoji jinrong weiji dui wojun caijing gongzuo de yingxiang yu duice” (Impacts of international financial crisis on our army's financial and economic operation and related countermeasures). Junshi jingji yanjiu (February), 58.Google Scholar
Sun, Yandong. 2011. “Jiaqiang jundui jingfei shiyong guanli lianzheng jiandu de gouxiang” (Enhance supervision of clean conduct in use and management of military funds). Junshi jingji yanjiu (July), 4749.Google Scholar
Teng, Jianqun. 2012. “Strategic transparency.” Beijing Review. 7 March 2012, http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2012-03/07/content_24828853_2.htm. Accessed 28 October 2012.Google Scholar
Wang, Shaoguang. 1996. “Estimating China's defense expenditure: some evidence form Chinese sources.” The China Quarterly 147: 889911.Google Scholar
Wen, Bing. 2010. “Cong yusuan zengfu xiajiang kan Zhongguo guofangfei” (Examining China's defence spending based on the decline in the budget increase), Zhongguo baodao, 15 April.Google Scholar
Xin Zhongguo wushi nian tongji ziliao huibian (Comprehensive Statistical Data and Materials on 50 Years of New China). 1999. Beijing: Zhongguo tongji chubanshe.Google Scholar
Xinhua. 2010. “China's defence budget to grow 7.5% in 2010: spokesman,” 4 March, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-03/04/content_9537753.htm. Accessed 20 September 2012.Google Scholar
Xinhua. 2012a. “China's defence budget to grow 11.2 pct in 2012: spokesman,” 4 March, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2012-03/04/c_131445012.htm. Accessed 20 September 2012.Google Scholar
Xinhua. 2012b. “Scholar refutes report on Chinese military.” 21 February. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012-02/21/content_14657080.htm. Accessed 20 September 2012.Google Scholar
Xu, Caihou. 2009. “The Chinese military: a force for multiple military tasks.” http://csis.org/event/statesmens-forum-general-xu-caihou. Accessed 20 September 2012.Google Scholar
Yan, Li. 1997. “Junfei zhichu guimo chuyi: tan junfei bokuan edu wenti” (Discussion of military expenditures models: military appropriations expenditures). Zhongguo ruankexue 6, 2026.Google Scholar
Yang, Yi. 2011. “Zhongguo junfei yusuan zengzhang wukehoufei” (“China's increasing its military budget is no cause for criticism”), Renmin ribao, 6 March.Google Scholar
Zhang, Ming, Wei, Qu, and Haiwei, Bai. 2011. “Qiantan tigao wuqi zhuangbei caiban xiaoyi” (An overview of improving the effectiveness of weapons and equipment procurement). Junshi jingji yanjiu (March), 2930.Google Scholar
Zhongguo caizheng nianjian (Finance Yearbook of China). Various Years. Accessed via China Statistical Yearbooks Database (tongji.cnki.net/kns55/index.aspx), 29 September 2012.Google Scholar
Zhongguo tongji zhaiyao 2012 (China Statistical Abstract 2012). Beijing: Zhongguo tongji chubanshe.Google Scholar
Zhongguo tongji nianjian 2011 (China Statistical Yearbook 2011). Beijing: Zhongguo tongji chubanshe.Google Scholar
Zhongguo wushiwu nian tongji ziliao huibian (China Compendium of statistics 1949–2004). 2005. Beijing: Zhongguo tongji chubanshe.Google Scholar
Zhu, Dianhua, and Wei, Xie. 2011. “Woguo guofang fudan yu jingji zengzhang de guanxi: jiyu gaige kaifang yilai de shizheng fenxi” (The relationship between our national defence burden and economic growth – based on empirical analysis since the reform and opening up). Junshi jingji yanjiu (April), 810.Google Scholar
Jiuxing, Zhu and Lihui, Shen. 2011. “Lun junshi caili yusuan de zhidu xiaolu ji qi duliang” (Military financial budget and measurement systems). Junshi jingji yanjiu (June), 89.Google Scholar
Zhu, Mengqin, and Zhenjun, Yuan. 2011. “Duihua yin zhuo, huhang shi huashidai biaozhi xing shijian” (Conversation with Yin Zhuo: escorts are an epoch-making event). Dangdai haijun 219 (December), 2225.Google Scholar
Zou, Shimeng. 2005. “Woguo junfei guimo ji zengzhang wenti lilun yanjiu shuping” (A theoretical research review on the issue of China's military spending model and growth). Jingjixuejia 4, 32–9.Google Scholar