Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-r5fsc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-26T02:10:15.707Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Blue, Green or Aquamarine? Taiwan and the Status Quo Preference in Cross-Strait Relations*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 July 2014

Chin-Hao Huang  and
Patrick James
Chin-Hao Huang
Affiliation:
Postdoctoral research associate at the University of Southern California. Email: [email protected].
Patrick James
Affiliation:
Professor of the School of International Relations and director of the Center for International Studies at the University of Southern California. Email: [email protected].
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Debates about whether China's rise poses a threat or an opportunity for Taiwan have settled into a realist assumption that Beijing will continue to upset the balance of power and a liberal approach that believes the benefits of economic interdependence are leading to greater gains. Missing from this debate is a nuanced consideration of how Taiwan's policy elites view themselves and their position in cross-Strait relations. Taiwan's decision makers' views are deeply affected by, and interact with, factors and institutions on and beyond the island. This article offers a model of political processes – the staying power of the status quo and order of movement – as a possible route towards an explanation for Taiwan's position on cross-Strait negotiations. The conclusion is that the status quo position – de facto but not de jure independence – is becoming more entrenched with time. Taiwan's colours of partisanship, Blue and Green, are blending into Aquamarine.

摘要

一班学者都以现实主义或经济相互依存的利益关系来分析中国的崛起及两岸关系。然而，这却忽略了台湾决策者对自我及其在两岸关系中所处地位的看法。这篇文章提供了一个国际关系决策过程的模式来更深入了解台湾在两岸谈判中的立场以及维持现状和政策动态次序的决断。其结论是，维持现状将随着时间的推移变得更加根深蒂固，并成为台湾各党派的凝聚认知及政策出发点。

Keywords

TaiwanChinacross-Strait relationsstatus quo biasorder of movementconflict processes台湾中国两岸关系维持现状政策动态次序
Type
Articles
Information
The China Quarterly , Volume 219 , September 2014 , pp. 670 - 692
Copyright
Copyright © The China Quarterly 2014 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

This research was made possible in part through the generous support of the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy and the USC Tsai Family Research Fund for Taiwan Studies. We are grateful to numerous individuals in Taipei for hosting our research visits and for their valuable insights provided during the focus group and research interviews. Finally, we thank our colleagues in the field for helpful comments on earlier drafts of this essay interpreting the findings and results.

References

Aberbach, Joel D., and Rockman, Bert A.. 2002. “Conducting and coding elite interviews.” PS: Political Science and Politics 35, 673–76.Google Scholar
Apesteguia, Jose, and Ballester, Miguel A.. 2009. “A theory of reference-dependent behavior.” Economic Theory 40, 427–455.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Benson, Brett V., and Niou, Emerson M.S.. 2005. “Public opinion, foreign policy, and the security balance in the Taiwan Strait.” Security Studies 14, 274–289.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boon, Hoo Tiang. 2012. “Reassessing the Taiwan–China rapprochement: a constrained romance of the two kingdoms.” St. Antony's International Review 7, 164–181.Google Scholar
Brown, David G. 2012. “China–Taiwan relations: a year for consolidation.” Comparative Connections (A triannual e-journal on East Asian bilateral relations), September.Google Scholar
Brown, David G., and Scott, Kevin. 2013. “China–Taiwan relations: new faces, familiar policies.” Comparative Connections, January.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 2010. The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future. New York: Random House.Google Scholar
Bush, Richard. 2005. Untying the Knot: Making Peace in the Taiwan Strait. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.Google Scholar
Cai, Kevin (ed.). 2011. Cross-Taiwan Straits Relations since 1979: Policy Adjustments and Institutional Change Across the Straits. Singapore: World Scientific Publishing.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chan, Mignonne Man-Jung. 2010. “Implications of the ECFA for Taiwan, cross-Strait development and regional integration.” Prospects and Perspectives 13, 75–86.Google Scholar
Chan, Steve. 2006. “Taiwan in 2005: strategic interaction in two-level games.” Asian Survey 46, 63–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chu, Yun-Han. 2007. “Taiwan's politics of identity: navigating between China and the United States.” In Kim, Byung-Kook and Jones, Anthony (eds.), Power and Security in Northeast Asia: Shifting Strategies. Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 225–252.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chung, Chien-Peng. 2007. “Resolving China's island disputes: a two-level game analysis.” Journal of Chinese Political Science 12, 49–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clark, Cal, and Tan, Alexander C.. 2012. “Political polarization in Taiwan: a growing challenge to catch-all parties?” Journal of Current Chinese Affairs 41, 7–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clough, Ralph. 1993. Reaching Across the Taiwan Strait: People-To-People Diplomacy. Boulder: Westview Press.Google Scholar
Enia, Jason S. 2009. “Sequencing negotiation partners: implications for the two-level game?” Negotiation Journal 25, 357–383.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fell, Dafydd. 2005. “Measuring and explaining party change in Taiwan: 1991–2004.” Journal of East Asian Studies 5, 105–133.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fernandez, Raquel, and Rodrik, Dani. 1991. “Resistance to reform: status quo bias in the presence of individual-specific uncertainty.” American Economic Review 81, 1146–55.Google Scholar
Ganguly, Sumit, and Thompson, William. 2011. Asian Rivalries: Conflict, Escalation and Limitations on Two-Level Games. Stanford: Stanford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gill, Bates, and Huang, Chin-Hao. 2005. “More Strait talk: ten years after the Taiwan missile crisis.” China Brief 5(22).Google Scholar
Glaser, Bonnie, and Billingsley, Brittany. 2012. Taiwan's Presidential Elections and Cross-Strait Relations. Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies.Google Scholar
Goldstein, Kenneth. 2002. “Getting in the door: sampling and completing elite interviews.” PS: Political Science and Politics 35, 669–672.Google Scholar
Hadley, Stephen J. 2012. “China and the rise of Asia.” Global Asia 7, 80–87.Google Scholar
Hammond, John S., Keeney, Ralph L. and Raiffa, Howard. 1998. “The hidden traps in decision making.” Harvard Business Review 76(5), 1–47.Google ScholarPubMed
Hassner, Ron E. 2009. War on Sacred Grounds. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Hsieh, John Fuh-Sheng, and Niou, Emerson M.S.. 2005. “Measuring Taiwanese public opinion on Taiwanese independence.” The China Quarterly 181, 158–168.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hsu, S. Philip. 2010. “Between identity quest and risk aversion: lessons from the Chen Shui-bian presidency for maintaining cross-Strait stability.” Journal of Contemporary China 19, 693–717.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huang, Chi. 2003. “Taiwan's election and democratization study, 2001.” Paper presented at the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems Plenary Session, Stockholm, Sweden, 3–4 October 2003.Google Scholar
James, Patrick, Cooper, A. Drury and Li, Yitan. 2009. “Diversionary dragons or ‘talking tough in Taipei:’ cross-Strait relations in the new millennium.” Journal of East Asian Studies 9, 337–368.Google Scholar
Kahneman, Daniel, Knetsch, Jack L. and Thaler, Richard H.. 1991. “Anomalies: the endowment effect, loss aversion and status quo bias.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 5, 193–206.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kim, Byung-Kook, and Jones, Anthony (eds.). 2007. Power and Security in Northeast Asia: Shifting Strategies. Boulder: Lynne Rienner.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, Chyungly. 2003. “Maritime confidence building measures across the Taiwan Strait: technical collaboration for human security at sea.” Sandia National Laboratories Global Security Programs Cooperative Monitoring Center 2003, 4–34.Google Scholar
Leech, Beth L. 2002. “Asking questions: techniques for semistructured interviews.” PS: Political Science and Politics 35, 665–68.Google Scholar
Li, Chenghong. 2005. “Two-level games, issue politicization and the disarray of Taiwan's cross-Strait policy after the 2000 presidential election.” East Asia 22, 41–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Li, Yitan. 2014. “Constructing peace in the Taiwan Strait: a constructivist analysis of the changing dynamics of identities and nationalisms.” Journal of Contemporary China 23(85), 119–142.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Liu, Fu-Kuo. 2011. “The dynamics of cross-Strait relations: heading for peace or unknown ground?” Brookings East Asia Commentary 51.Google Scholar
Lupke, Christopher. 2012. “Reflections on situating Taiwan in modern Chinese cultural studies.” The Journal of Asian Studies 71, 57–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McDonald, Patrick J. 2009. The Invisible Hand of Peace: Capitalism, the War Machine, and International Relations Theory. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mintz, Alex, and DeRouen, Karl Jr. 2010. Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Niou, Emerson M.S. 2005. “A new measure of preferences on the independence-unification issue in Taiwan.” Journal of Asian and African Studies 40, 91–104.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pei, Minxin. 2007. “China's hedged acquiescence: coping with US hegemony.” In Kim, Byung-Kook and Jones, Anthony (eds.), Power and Security in Northeast Asia: Shifting Strategies. Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 99–125.Google Scholar
Rigger, Shelley. 2008. Rising Rationalists: The Next Generation of Leadership in Taiwan. Seattle: The National Bureau of Asian Research.Google Scholar
Samuelson, William, and Zeckhauser, Richard. 1988. “Status quo bias in decision making.” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 1, 7–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schubert, Gunter. 2004. “Taiwan's political parties and national identity: the rise of an overarching consensus.” Asian Survey 44, 534–554.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Su, Chi. 2008. Taiwan's Relations with Mainland China: A Tail Wagging Two Dogs. London: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sutter, Robert G. 2010. Chinese Foreign Relations: Power and Policy since the Cold War. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield.Google Scholar
Sutter, Robert G. 2011. Taiwan's Future: Narrowing Straits. Seattle: The National Bureau of Asian Research.Google Scholar
Tansey, Oisín. 2007. “Process tracing and elite interviewing: a case for non-probability sampling.” PS: Political Science and Politics 40, 765–772.Google Scholar
Thaler, Richard H. 1980. “Toward a positive theory of consumer behavior.” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 1, 39–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tucker, Nancy Benkopf. 2009. Strait Talk: United States–Taiwan Relations and the Crisis with China. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Twining, Daniel. 2012. Taiwan's Election and the Future of the US–Taiwan Relationship: No End to the Affair. Seattle: The National Bureau of Asian Research.Google Scholar
Vega-Redondo, Fernando. 1995. “The dynamics and revealed preference of status-quo optimality.” Economic Theory 6, 263–282.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Whewell, William. 2011 [1840]. The Philosophy of the Inductive Sciences, Founded Upon Their History (Vols. I–II). Florence, Italy: Nabu Press.Google Scholar
Wong, Seanon S. 2005. “Economic statecraft across the Strait: business influence in Taiwan's mainland policy.” Asian Perspective 29, 41–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wu, Yu-Shan. 2005. “Taiwan's domestic politics and cross-Strait relations.” The China Journal 53, 35–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar