1. In the succeeding discussion, better weather and more complete statistical coverage are not put forward to explain the very rapid apparent agricultural growth in recent years. Although both unquestionably contribute to the impressive margins among Chinese statistics for the 1978–84 period, this comment assumes that most of the apparent growth is real and non-weather-related. The statistical issues are discussed in Stone, Bruce, “The use of agricultural statistics: some national aggregate examples and current state of the art” in Barker, Randy, Sinha, Radha and Rose, Beth (eds.), Chinese Agricultural Economy (Boulder: Westview, 1982), pp. 205–245Google Scholar. The best recent treatment of the weather variable is Kueh, Y. Y., “A weather index for analysing grain yield instability in China, 1952–81,” The China Quarterly, No. 97 (03 1984), pp. 68–83.Google Scholar

2. The relationship of the recent policy initiative to resource allocative efficiency both within and among localities is discussed in Stone, Bruce, “China's 1985 foodgrain production target” in Anthony M. Tang and Bruce Stone, Food Production in the People's Republic of China, Research Report No. 15 (Washington, D.C.; International Food Policy Research Institute, 1980), pp. 83–178, esp. 146–53Google Scholar. Gains from specialization foregone under the previous policy environment are dramatized in Lardy, Nicholas R., Agriculture in China's Modern Economic Development (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1983).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

3. This issue is thoroughly explored in Stone, Bruce, “Fertilizer marketing and application in China.” a paper prepared for the World Bank, Washington, D.C., 1 06 1984Google Scholar. The importance of the procurement problem in formulating rural policy throughout the People's Republic period is discussed in Stone, Bruce, “Relative foodgrain prices in the People's Republic of China: the experience of extractive rural taxation through low procurement prices in a state grain market monopoly,” a paper prepared for the IFPRI Workshop on Food and Agricultural Policy, Elkridge, Maryland, 29 04-2 05 1984Google Scholar. See also Stone, Bruce, “Long-term intersectoral resource flows among countries undergoing technical transformation of agriculture – the case of the People's Republic of China,” in Yamamoto, Tatsuro (ed.), Proceedings of the Thirty First International Congress of Human Sciences in Asia and North Africa (Tokyo-Kyoto, 31 08-7 09 1983), Vol. II (Tokyo: Toho Gakkai [The Institute of Eastern Culture], 1984), especially pp. 790–92Google Scholar. A regional breakdown of the evolving procurement problem, especially for the 1950s, is exhaustively treated in Walker, Kenneth R., Food Grain Procurement and Consumption in China (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1984).Google Scholar

4. People's Republic of China, State Statistical Bureau, Statistical Yearbook of China 1983 (Hong Kong: Economic Information and Agency, 1983), pp. 158–70, 389–94 and 435–39Google Scholar. Fertilizer awarded in exchange for cotton is generally 42 kg. per 50 kg. of product sold, but in the North China cotton-producing provinces of Hebei, Shandong and Shanxi, the allocation is 50kg., while in some areas of Sichuan, it has been as high as 125kg. In 1981, 30% of fertilizers allocated in exchange for procurement or 22% of all applied fertilizers, were allocated in exchange for cotton purchases (Beiyang, Liu and Hongli, Xie, “Problem of present incentive sale of chemical fertilizers for agricultural production,” Nongye jingji wenti [Problems in Agricultural Economics], No. 10 (1982), p. 54)Google Scholar. In Hebei, at least, the deal is sweetened by returning the seeds from the ginning process to farmers selling raw cotton, and returning the oil seed cakes to farmers selling cotton seeds (discussion with James E. Nickum, Bejing, March 1984).

5. State Statistical Bureau of China, Statistical Yearbook of China 1983Google Scholar. The proportion of cotton output sold to the state has exceeded 90% since 1971 and has surpassed 95% since 1979. The porportions for sugar crops exceeded 80% for the late 1970s, but with rapid growth and significant unsatisfied demand in rural areas, that of sugar cane has fallen to around 60% while the proportion for sugar beets remains above 90%. The proportions for edible vegetable oils fell to 61–68% (1962–66), 55–59% ( 1967–71 ) and 51–54% (1971–77), but rapidly increased to more than 70% (1980–82). In contrast, grain procurement did not exceed 26% during the 1962–82 period, although it rose from a 1977 trough of 20.0% to 24.9% in 1982, 37% of which (9.3% of total) was resold to farmers.

6. See Lardy, Nicholas R., “Agricultural prices in China,” World Bank Staff Paper No. 606, Washington D.C., 09 1983Google Scholar; Stone, , “Relative foodgrain prices in the PRC,”Google Scholar and Stone, , “Long-term intersectoral resource flows.”Google Scholar

7. See for example, Ishikawa, Shigeru, “Labour absorption in Asian agriculture,” International Labour Organisation (ARTEP), Bangkok, 1980Google Scholar; and Ishikawa, Shigeru, “China's food and agriculture: a turning point,” Food Policy, Vol. 2 (05 1977), pp. 90–102CrossRefGoogle Scholar; State Statistical Bureau, Statistical Yearbook of China 1983, p. 122.Google Scholar

8. Stone, , “China's 1985 foodgrain production target,” p. 158Google Scholar; Stone, Bruce, “An analysis of Chinese data on root and tuber crop production,” The China Quarterly, No. 99 (09 1984), pp. 594–630Google Scholar. According to a recent article in Malingshu (White Potato), area sown with the crop has fallen to a little more than 3.2 million hectares (from around 5 million hectares in 1978), but average yields have increased to almost 9.9 tons per hectare (from 9.4 tons in 1978). The proliferation of virus-free seed farms and seed potato distribution companies in a number of important potato-growing provinces is confirmed in an International Potato Center trip report September, 1984.

9. Stone, Bruce, “Trends in hybrid rice production,”Google Scholar unpublished research note. The setback was due to over-ambitious expansion in the early developing province, such as Hunan. In many areas, the loss on other crops, owing to the hybrid's longer growing season requirements, did not compensate for the direct increase in production from switching to the hybrid. The hybrid also fell prey to yellow dwarf virus in susceptible areas. In more slowly developing provinces such as Guangdong and Sichuan, aided by the recent success in evolving an economically viable tropical hybrid, the trend of expansion has been accelerating, while the decline has now been reversed in the Yangtze Valley provinces, as well.

10. Tongjiju, Zhongguo (State Statistical Bureau of China), Zhongguo tongji zhaiyao 1984 (Statistical Abstract of China 1984) (Beijing: Tongji chubanshe, 1984), pp. 27–33.Google Scholar

11. Stone, , “Fertilizer marketing and allocation in China”Google Scholar; Stone, Bruce, “An examination of the prospects for demand for chemical fertilizers in the People's Republic of China,” a paper prepared for the World Bank, Washington, D.C., 3 01 1984Google Scholar. Tables A1–A3.

12. Stone, Bruce, “The Chiang Jiang diversion projects: an overview of economic and environmental issues,” in Biswas, Asit K., Dakang, Zuo, Nickum, James E. and Changming, Liu (eds.), Long Distance Water Transfer: A Chinese Case Study and International Experiences, Water Resources Series Vol. 3 (Dublin: Tycooly International Publishing, Ltd, 1983)Google Scholar. The World Bank has evidently turned down a Chinese bid to finance the exorbitant Yangtze Diversion Project, although Jiangsu and Henan Provinces are developing the project on their own initiative within their borders. The World Food Programme is financing two smaller irrigation projects to the extent of 34.6 million dollars (“$216m WFP aid for Third World,” Bangladesh Times, 10 11 1984, p. 4).Google Scholar

13. Xinhua (New China) news bulletins, 25 03 1983Google Scholar; 31 December 1983; 24 April 1983; Stone, , “Fertilizer marketing and allocation in China,” pp. A10 and B11.Google Scholar

14. Stone, Bruce, “China's 1985 foodgrain production target,” p. 118.Google Scholar

15. State Statistical Bureau, Statistical Yearbook of China 1983, pp. 325 and 448–49Google Scholar; Stone, , “Relative foodgrain prices in the PRC,” pp. 21–25.Google Scholar

16. One classic example of this kind of behaviour occurred in 1980. With the increase in purchase prices for pork and hogs, as well as for rural sales prices for feedgrains, farmers grabbed the opportunity to slaughter stock since the previous price structure had favoured maximum herd growth and minimum slaughter owing to the high relative prices paid for manure. Soon the government's cold storage facilities were filled beyond capacity and articles and directives began appearing warning farmers against over-slaughtering and promising that the price increases would be permanent. Farmers in several provinces, such as Hunan, evidently did not sufficiently heed these cautions and the total swine stock declined by 4.5% in 1980 and another 3.8% in 1981. Meanwhile, pork was spoiling owing to inadequate storage and some purchasing agents began to refuse to buy more. Eventually, the government was forced to roll back purchase prices, vindicating rural scepticism regarding their stability. Cutting back on prices was evidently unusual in this period, but sporadic refusal on the part of local agents to purchase particular commodities was not uncommon.

17. The inadequacy is made abundantly clear in Walker, Food Grain Procurement and Consumption in China.