¹ The three macro–studies were conducted by the Research Team on Rural Population Mobility of the China Population Information and Research Centre and Chen Jiyuan, Hu Biliang and Yu Dechang of the Rural Development Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. On the basis of numerous nation–wide surveys and studies these papers concluded that the number of rural migrants has reached some 120 million or so persons, which suggests that more than 15% of the total rural labour force in China have left their villages of origin for either short or long–term relocation and that the numbers of migrants are increasing and staying for longer periods away from their villages. Migration largely involves the relocation of village populations from rural to urban locations although a small proportion (10–20% or so) are estimated to move from rural to rural locations. Some 90% of movement has been from agricultural to non–agricultural occupations with the non–agricultural population reported to have increased by 108.38 million between 1979 to 1993. Some 80–90% of the movement has been from rural to urban destinations, roughly divided between large cities (30%), medium sized and small cities (40%) and townships (20%). A high proportion of the movement has been from the under–developed north–west, south–west and central provinces to the more economically developed south and eastern coastal regions. The surveys suggest that most of those moving out of a village on a permanent or temporary basis were male and that the proportion of male to female migrants has risen over the past ten years; that more than a quarter of permanent migrants to cities were less than 30 years old and that 55–70% of the floating population were under the age of 30; if migrants under the age of 40 were tabulated then upwards of 88% of migrants of all types fell into the age range 18–40; and that migrants, both temporary or permanent, were often among the better educated of the village with significant proportions, frequently more than half, having junior middle school education. The push factors encouraging migration included the shortage of cultivable land, surplus labour, low agricultural income, the low status of agriculture and government policy encouraging migration. As for push factors it is the economic factors which predominate in encouraging mobility towards new destinations. Pull factors included increasing demand for labour in industry and the service sector, higher urban incomes, seductive urban life–styles and the influence of television and other media portraying the attractions of potential migrant destinations.

² The field investigations were undertaken between October 1994 and March 1995 in four provinces chosen to incorporate north, south, central and inland regions and a range of development conditions in which significant migration has occurred. Within each province, villages were selected which were mid–range in socio–economic development, of varying proximity to provincial capitals and in which there had been some transfer to non–agricultural activities within or some distance from the village. In each village a team of researchers conducted exten– I sive interviews among local government leaders and more detailed interviews were under– taken in 35 households which had varied histories of migration or transfer out of agriculture.

³ The data for the following observations derive from village studies undertaken by the first author since 1990 as part of the background studies for China: Strategies for Reducing Poverty in the 1990s (Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 1992) and for Resettlement and Development (Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 1994). The village studies for the former have been written up in Elisabeth Croll, From Heaven to Earth: Images and Experiences of Development in China (London: Routledge, 1994).Google Scholar

⁴ Haoran, Li, The Longgang Development Model (Shanghai: Social Science Academy Press, 1991) quoted in Qian Wenbao, Rural–urban migration and its impact on economic development: a case study in China, Ph.D. thesis, City University, London, 1995.Google Scholar

⁵ These and the following observations are based on field studies reported in Croll, From Heaven to Earth, pp. 36–101.Google Scholar

⁶ This study confirms the findings of village studies undertaken in 1995 by the first author for UNICEF which show the rising costs of education and health care for children in Anhui province.

⁷ The data on remittances included in the village studies conducted in Guangxi for Resettlement and Development (see n. 3) suggested these conclusions.

⁸ Kang, He (ed.), The Development Strategy and Policy for Grain Production in China (Beijing: Agricultural Press, 1990.Google Scholar

⁹ Renmin ribao {Peoples Daily), 8 December 1994 and 15 January 1995. For further examples see Robert F. Ash, Mainland Chinas search for grain self–sufficiency (forthcoming).

¹⁰ Asian Wall Street Journal, 16 August 1995. For further discussion of these points see Ash, Mainland Chinas search for grain self–sufficiency.