1. Lee, Oliver, “U.S. trade policy toward China: from economic warfare to summit diplomacy,” in Stahnke, Arthur (ed.), China's Trade With The West (New York: Praeger, 1971), p. 49Google Scholar. The political and economic aspects of the “China differential” are discussed in Boordman, Robert, Britain and the People's Republic ef., China 1949–1974 (New York: Macmillan, 1976)Google Scholar; Garson, John, “The American trade embargo against China,” in Eckstein, Alexander (ed.), China Trade Prospects and U.S. Policy (New York: Praeger, 1971), pp. 3–75.Google Scholar

2. Xiang, Huan, “On Sino-U.S. relations”, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 60, No. 1 (Autumn 1981), pp. 35–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

3. Unclassified U.S. Department of State Transcripts of Secretary of State Alexander Haig's Press Conference in Beijing, 16 June 1981(Action SS-15 and SPRS-02).

4. These considerations are examined in detail by Banning Garrett in his statement before the Subcommittee on Asian and Pacific Affairs of the Committee of Foreign Affairs, House of Representatives in hearings on The United States and The People's Republic of China: Issues for the 1980s 96th Cong., 2nd Sess., 26 08 1980, pp. 96–108Google Scholar; and Chyba, Christopher F., “U.S. military support equipment sales to the People's Republic of China”, Asian Survey, Vol. 21, No. 4 (04 1981), pp. 470–72CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Also see Burt, Richard, “Study urges U.S. aid to Chinese military,” New York Times, 4 10 1979, pp. A-1, A-8.Google Scholar

5. A useful chronology outlining the development of the west's strategic, political, and economic ties with the PRC is found in China: U.S. Policy Since 1945 (Washington D.C.: The Congressional Quarterly, Inc., 1980), especially pp. 188–264Google Scholar. For Brzezinski's own assessments of his May 1978 talks with Chinese leaders, see “National Security advisor Brzezinski's interview on ‘Meet the press’” Department of State Bulletin, Vol. 78, No. 2016 (07 1978), p. 27Google Scholar. In July 1981 Brzezinski returned to China and advocated the structuring of a “defensive informal coalition” between the United States, China, Japan, and Western Europe between 1983 and 1987. An account of his remarks is in The Japan Times, 26 07 1981, p. 1.Google Scholar

6. For accounts of Brown's remarks, see the Financial Times, 7 01 1980, p. 1Google Scholar; New York Times, 9 01 1980, A-9Google Scholar; The Guardian, 11 01 1980, p. 6Google Scholar; the Wall Street Journal, 9 01 1980, p. 1Google Scholar; and Asian Wall Street Journal, 11 01 1980, p. 2.Google Scholar

7. Chinese press accounts of the Geng Biao trip are found in Foreign Broadcast Information Service (hereafter cited as FBIS), People's Republic of China (Daily Report), 27 May 1980, p. B-1; 28 May 1980, p. B-1; 29 May 1980, p. B-1; and 30 May 1980, p. B-1 through B-2. Also see the Renmin ribao's assessment of Geng's consultations with U.S. leaders reprinted in FBIS, PRC (Daily Report), 18 06 1980, p. B-3Google Scholar. For a comprehensive western account, see “Another step to the triple alliance,” Asiaweek, Vol. 6, No. 23 (13 06 1980), pp. 16–17.Google Scholar

8. A full text of Holbrooke's remarks is in Department of State Bulletin, Vol. 80, No. 2041 (08 1980), pp. 49–51Google Scholar and a partial reprint appears in Asiaweek, Vol. 6, No. 24 (20 06 1980), pp. 40–41Google Scholar. For a Chinese assessment of his remarks, see Xinhua, 28 March 1980 reprinted in FBIS, PRC (Daily Report), 28 03 1980, p. B-2.Google Scholar

9. Karen Birney offers a more precise breakdown on the revised licensing system in “Dual use technology sales,” The China Business Review, Vol. 7, No. 4 (07–08 1980), pp. 23–26Google Scholar. For an account of U.S. efforts to persuade the Paris-based Coordinating Committee for Exports to Communist Countries (COCOM) on the desirability of loosening strategic trade controls vis-à-vis China while keeping them in effect for the Soviet Union and its East European allies, see Krause, Axel, “U.S. said to seek revision in rules on sales to China”, International Herald Tribune, 16 01 1980, p. 1.Google Scholar

10. For Perry's assessments of his talks with Chinese defence officials, see Unclassified Department of Defense Transcript of “News conference with Dr William J. Perry, under secretary of defence (research and engineering), Dr Gerald P. Dineen, assistant secretary-of-defence (C³I) at the Pentagon”, 3 October 1980, pp. 1–11. One of the most comprehensive press accounts of the Perry trip is by Mathews, Jay, “U.S.-China trade edges nearer military hardware,” International Herald Tribune, 12 09 1980, p. 1Google Scholar. Others include Ching, Frank's report in the Asian Wall Street Journal, 12 09 1980, p. 1Google Scholar; Taylor, Frank's assessments in The Daily Telegraph (London), 3 09 1980, p. 6Google Scholar; and Vogl, David's summary in The Times (London), 17 09 1980, p. 17Google Scholar, which notes that pending U.S. computer sales to the PRC are far more sophisticated than any that the west has sold to the U.S.S.R. For Chinese accounts of Perry's visit, consult FBIS, PRC (Daily Report), 12 09 1980, p. B-4Google Scholar and 15 September 1980, p. B-1.

11. On 20 September 1981, China launched three satellites into orbit which were probably designed to test China's ability to detect and analyse missile firings from satellite observations. Sophisticated computer technology acquired from the United States or other western sources over the next two to three years could help the PRC to acquire continuous tracking coverage of the whole Soviet Union as well as the Indian and Pacific Ocean areas where Soviet submarines are stationed. See the International Herald Tribune, 21 09 1981, p. 1.Google Scholar

12. The Japan Times, 7 06 1981, p. 1Google Scholar and the International Herald Tribune, 8 06 1981, p. 4.Google Scholar

13. As reported by Gelb, Leslie H., “U.S. studies role of arms in relations with China,” International Herald Tribune, 6/7 06 1981, p. 1.Google Scholar

14. A more comprehensive description of this process is in Tow, William T. and Stuart, Douglas T., “China's military turns to the west,” International Affairs (London), Vol. 57, No. 2 (Spring 1981), pp. 286–300.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

15. Based on author interviews with personnel of British Aerospace, 24 September 1981 and with personnel of the British Defence Ministry on 23 September 1981. For background on the Harrier negotiations, see Crane, David, “The Harrier jump-jet and Sino-British relations,” Asian Affairs, Vol 8, No. 4 (03/04 1981), pp. 227–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

16. Based on author interviews with Rolls-Royce personnel in Derby, England, on 22 September 1981. Also see reports by Donne, Michael and Smith, Charles in the Financial Times, 7 04 1981, p. 8Google Scholar; 8 April 1981, p. 5; and 27 April 1981, p. 5.

17. For reports on the Tornado discussions, see Gavshon, Arthur L., “British firms work harder to sell aviation equipment to the Chinese”, Asian Wall Street Journal, 21 03 1980, p. 4Google Scholar. In September 1980, Chiao Ai, chief of the People's Liberation Army Bureau of Foreign Affairs told Rear Admiral Conrad Jenkin of the Royal Navy during a British naval contingent's visit to Shanghai that while British technology is advanced, “the price is too high.” The Times (London), 6 09 1980, p. 5.Google Scholar

18. In December 1980 CATIC signed a contract with the Boeing Corporation for processing parts of Boeing 737 and 747 jets and the following month it filled an order for aeronautical forgings and castings with the Lockheed Aircraft Corporation. See China Economic News (Hong Kong), No. 10 (16 03 1981), p. 8Google Scholar. For further background on recent activities on CATIC, see “Chinese open import-export office at Douglas facility”, Aviation Week & Space Technology, Vol. 115, No. 5 (3 08 1981), p. 46Google Scholar; “PRC aerospace industry diversifies successfully”, China Business Report, Vol. 81, No. 4 (04 1981), p. 2Google Scholar (issued by the Institute for International Research, London); and MacDougall, Colina, “China seeks aircraft office in London”, Financial Times, 28 03 1980, p. 6.Google Scholar

19. Based on author interviews with officials of the British Foreign Office and Defence Ministry, 23 September 1981.

*Ed. Note: Marconi Avionics has announced the signing of a contract worth £14m. for the sale of electronic equipment to China. (The Observer, 28 03, 1982, p. 4)Google Scholar

20. Reported in The Japan Times, 28 07 1981, p. 14.Google Scholar

21. Kolodziej, Edward, “France and the arms trade”, International Affairs (London), Vol. 56, No. 1 (01 1980), pp. 54–72CrossRefGoogle Scholar, Japan Times, 28 07, 1981, p. 14.Google Scholar

22. International Herald Tribune, 4 07 1980, p. 7.Google Scholar

23. The report appeared in The Times (London), 8 07 1981, p. 4Google Scholar. For background of Belgian Chief of Staff Lt. General Willy Gontier's trip to Beijing, see FBIS-PRC, 19 05 1980, pp. G–1 and G–2Google Scholar. For information regarding Yang's meetings with Lt. General de Smet, chief of staff for the Belgian air force, see British Broadcasting Corporation – Summary of World Broadcasts Far East/6579/A1/1, 3 October 1980. For details related to a BF 900 million loan extended to the Chinese for purchase of Belgian “capital and industrial goods”, see FBIS-PRC (Daily Report), 1 05 1980, p. G–1.Google Scholar

24. As Harry Gelber has noted, Japan, along with other western states, was bound to respond to the Chinese military's impact on the PRC's overall export/import balance and on China's need “…to design a foreign trade policy that would be minimally constrained by the requirements of COCOM.” Gelber, , Technology, Defense, and External Relations in China, 1975–1978 (Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press, 1979).Google Scholar

25. Japan has so far dominated the computer market in China with Hitachi Ltd. being awarded contracts for 54 units and Fujitsu Ltd. for 17 units. While transactions have been limited to “medium-sized”computers to date – outside the restrictions of COCOM – the U.S. is currently seeking to block the sale of a larger Hitachi model to the Chinese on the grounds that it would be applicable to China's ICBM technology. The Daily Telegraph (London), 22 09 1981, p. 5Google Scholar; and The Japan Times, 20 10 1981, p. 12.Google Scholar

26. Sino-British Trade Review, No. 196 (01 1981), p. 5.Google Scholar

27. China Economic News, No. 15 (27 04 1981), pp. 5–7.Google Scholar

28. For background, see Ryan, Wm. L. and Summerlin, Sam, The China Cloud (Boston: Little, Brown and Company, 1968)Google Scholar. For analysis of Chinese technicians' use of Soviet nuclear technology and training, consult Pollack, Jonathan, “China as a nuclear power” in Overholt, William (Ed.) Asia's Nuclear Future (Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press, 1977), esp. pp. 36–41Google Scholar, and Kramish, Arnold, “The Great Chinese Bomb Puzzle – and a Solution”, Fortune 63, No. 6 (06 1966), pp. 157–58, 246–48, 250.Google Scholar

29. The Japan Times, 11 07 1978, p. 1.Google Scholar

30. One such mission was led by Osamu Nagano, advisor to Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries who subsequently reponed that the Chinese were eager to import Western application satellite technology. See The Japan Economic Journal, 11 12 1979.Google Scholar

31. Kyodo press release of Li Xiannian's interview with Julie Moon, editor of U.S. Asian News reprinted in FBIS-PRC (Daily Report), 6 07 1981, p. B–1Google Scholar. The Beijing Institute for Strategic Studies issued a paper to a Trilateral Commission meeting in Japan during May 1981 which emphasized that protracted war rather than nuclear weapons would constitute China's major line of defence against a Soviet attack and that to fight such a war successfully, China must update its defences and modernize its military through a proper combination of self-reliance and import of advanced technology and equipment. The Japan Times, 12 06 1981, p. 4Google Scholar. Jonathan Pollack has observed that “… through the building of indigenous production facilities and the training of Chinese scientists and engineers – military planners will be able to maintain autonomy from external control.” Pollack, , “China as a military power”, in Marwah, Onkar and Pollack, Jonathan D., (Eds.), Military Power and Policy in Asian States: China, India, Japan (Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press, 1980), p. 79.Google Scholar

32. Estimates cited in China News Analysis (Hong Kong), No. 1203 (27 03 1981), pp. 1–2.Google Scholar

33. For background on China's economic problems which has led to its development programmes retraction, see excerpts from an address delivered by Vice Minister of Foreign Trade Jia Shi in Brussels before a conference of European Economic Community officials in Economic Reporter (Hong Kong), No. 4, (04 1981), pp. 13–15Google Scholar. Also reports in Xinhua, 9 07 1981Google Scholar; Newsweek, 16 11 1981, p. 39Google Scholar, and Walker, Tony's concise outline of austerity measures appearing in the Financial Times, 2 03 1981, p. 1Google Scholar. For reports on China's natural disasters' economic impact on its economy, consult the International Herald Tribune, 27 04 1981, p. 2Google Scholar; the Financial Times, 6 05 1981, p. 1Google Scholar; and esp. Marshall, June's report in the Bangkok Post, 25 09 1981, p. 8.Google Scholar

34. During 1980, a reported 400,000 rear service troops out of a total manpower of some 3·6 million were demobilized. “Seems the PLA Has Got Over Its Morale Crisis,” Far Eastern Economic Review 113, No. 40 (25 09 1981), p. 55Google Scholar. In late September 1981, Deng Xiaoping and his chief of staff for the PLA, Yang Dezhi, commanded one of the largest PLA war games since the communist regime came to power involving up to 200,000 troops and held to demonstrate that military modernization requires not only sophisticated weapons but different strategic concepts and operational tactics than those employed by the PLA under Mao Zedong and used with questionable results during the February 1979 Sino-Vietnamese conflict. For extensive reports, see The Japan Times, 28 09 1981, p. 1Google Scholar and the International Herald Tribune, 28 09 1981, p. 7.Google Scholar

35. For an account of the PLA's performance in the February 1979 Sino-Vietnamese conflict, see Jencks, Harlan, “China's ‘punitive war’ on Vietnam: A preliminary assessment”, Asian Survey 19, No. 8 (08 1979)CrossRefGoogle Scholar, and Bonavia, David, “Lessons of a border war,” Far Eastern Economic Review 106, No. 49 (7 12 1979).Google Scholar

36. Upon assuming supervision over the Chinese Communist Party's Military Affairs Commission in early 1981, Deng Xiaoping set up a new Discipline Inspection Committee to enforce civilian policies within army sectors. That, together with China's redefined economic priorities, has cut into the PLA's once unquestionably predominant influence of the decision-making of China's leadership. For reports on Deng's moves regarding military morale, see MacDougall, Colina, “Deng moves to assert grip on army,” Financial Times, 6 02 1981, p. 18Google Scholar; “Deng in big move to slash military funds,” Daily Telegraph (London), 30 01 1981, p. 3Google Scholar; Rutherford, Malcolm, “The finger of suspicion points at Mao,” Financial Times, 1 05 1981, p. 23Google Scholar in which PLA unrest is attributed to unfulfilled promises by the Party to provide the army with new equipment and to PLA discontent with China's increased cultural and social liberalization, and Weisskopf, Michael, “China stages parades as a step in restoring military prestige,” International Herald Tribune, 4 08 1981, p. 3Google Scholar. Also see “Deng's hand on the gun,” Far Eastern Economic Review, 13 03 1981, pp. 11–12Google Scholar; and Walker, Tony, “Peking trimming size of the people's army,” Sydney Morning Herald, 20 03 1981, p. 5.Google Scholar

37. Yang's definitive article, “Unswervingly uphold our Party's absolute leadership over the army – in commemoration of the CCP's 60th founding anniversary,” was carried in Hongqi (Red Flag) No. 13, 1981, and by Xinhua, 4 07 1981Google Scholar. An English language text is found in FBIS-PRC (Daily Report), 7 07 1981, pp. K–4.Google Scholar Western assessments on the policy implications of Yang's remarks are in the International Herald Tribune, 1 07 1981, p. 3Google Scholar; and The Japan Times, 6 07 1981, p. 4.Google Scholar

38. For background on the MBBs, see Birney, Karen, “Doing business with China's defence industries,” The China Business Review, 8, No. 3 (05/06 1981), pp. 23–25Google Scholar; and Jencks, Harlan, “The Chinese military-industrial complex and defence modernization,” Asian Survey 20, No. 10 (10 1980), pp. 965–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

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40. For an assessment of China's mineral industries, see Parks, Michael, “China sharply expands rare metal sales,” in the International Herald Tribune, 16 07 1981, p. 9.Google Scholar

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42. During his visit to Beijing in September 1980, U.S. Under-secretary of Defence Perry initiated government-to-government negotiations for U.S. purchases of these metals, the New York Times, 11 09 1980Google Scholar. Bell Helicopters has also attempted to arrange for a long-term deal, exchanging joint production rights of the Model 212 craft for Chinese titanium. Wang, K. P., “China”, Mining Annual Review, 1981, p. 437.Google Scholar

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44. For specific U.S. Government assessments of Chinese defence capabilities, see the report by Mitchell, Ronald G. and Parris, Edward P., “Chinese defense spending, 1965–78,” submitted for the record during testimony of Admiral Stansfield Turner, director, Central Intelligence Agency in Hearings before the Subcommittee on Priorities and Economy in Government of the Joint Economic Committee, Allocation of Resources in the Soviet Union and China – 1979 (Part V), 96th Cong., 1st Sess., 26 06 1979, pp. 66–72Google Scholar; and Middleton, Drew, “Arms to China: dubious moves,” the New York Times, 12 04 1981. p. A-19.Google Scholar

45. See the written testimony of Lt. General Eugene F. Tighe, Jr., in Hearings before the Subcommittee on Priorities and Economy in Government…loc. cit. p. 120–26.

46. See the Mershon Centre Quarterly Report, U.S. Military Sales and Technology Transfers to China: The Policy Implications (Columbus, Ohio: Ohio State University Press, Spring 1981), pp. 4–5Google Scholar. According to one estimate, the overall cost for a major PRC modernization campaign would be in the area of $300 billion, Buchan, David and MacDougall, Colina, “How the U.S. could rearm Peking's military machine,” Financial Times, 23 06 1981, p. 4.Google Scholar

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50. Kissinger, Henry, The White House Years (Boston: Little, Brown & Co., 1979), p. 1076.Google Scholar

51. Dittmer, Lowell, “The strategic triangle: an elementary game – theoretical analysis,” World Politics 33, No. 4 (07 1981), pp. 485–515CrossRefGoogle Scholar. For extensive background on Sino-Soviet-American “triangular diplomacy,” see Lieberthal, Kenneth, The Strategic Triangle: Can the US Play the “China Card”?, Köln, FRG: Bundesinstitut für Ostwissenschaftliche und Internationale Studien, 08 1979Google Scholar, and Segal, Gerald, “China's strategic posture and the great-power triangle,” Pacific Affairs 53, No. 4 (Winter 1980–1981), pp. 682–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

52. This possibility was considered by Luttwak, Edward in his controversial article, “Against the china card,” Commentary 66 (10 1978), pp. 37–43.Google Scholar

53. This strategy could perhaps be best described as “When in doubt, arm everyone.” The definitive statement of U.S. arms transfer policies was made by James L. Buckley, under secretary for Security Assistance, Science, and Technology, before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on 28 July 1981, and summarized by a White House announcement the following day (29 July). A text of the White House statement is in Department of State Bulletin 81, No. 2054 (09 1981), pp. 61–64.Google Scholar

54. International Herald Tribune, 13 11 1981, p. 2.Google Scholar

55. See statements by Presidential Adviser Ray Cline in Asiaweek, 6, No. 49 (12 12 1980)Google Scholar prior to Reagan's inauguration, and more recent comments by White House spokesman Larry Speakes in The Asian Wall Street Journal, Friday, 24 07 1981, p. 4.Google Scholar

56. Beijing Review, No. 25, 22 06 1981, pp. 11–12.Google Scholar

57. Whymant, Robert, “China steps up its advances toward an unwilling Taiwan,” The Guardian, 1 06 1981.Google Scholar

58. Carson, John, “The American trade embargo,” p. 66Google Scholar, and International Herald Tribune, 9 11 1981, p. 1Google Scholar. A more complete account of the Siberian pipeline deal is presented in the Financial Times, 16 12 1980, p. 18.Google Scholar

59. This opinion was evident during author interviews at the German Foreign Ministry in Bonn on 28 September 1981.

60. U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Technology and East-West Trade (Washington, D.C.: USGPO, 1979)Google Scholar; see also, McIntyre, John and Cupitt, Richard, “East-west strategic trade control: crumbling consensus?,” Survey, Vol. 25, No. 2 (111), Spring 1980, pp. 81–108Google Scholar and Yergin, Angela Stent, East-West Technology Transfer: European Perspectives, The Washington Papers, No. 75 (Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications, 1980)Google Scholar. Based upon extensive interviewing and research in Germany, Great Britain, and France, Yergin concludes that “COCOM must continue to treat all Communist countries more or less equally … lessening the degree of export controls over trade with Peking … will cause dissension within the organization.” Ibid., pp. 84–85.

61. The risk of COCOM “collapsing of its own weight” is discussed by Graham Allison in testimony before the House Subcommittee on International Economic Policy and Trade (Washington, D.D.: USGPO, 1976), p. 46; cited in McIntyre, and Cupitt, , op. cit. p. 108.Google Scholar

62. For a typical Soviet warning to West European states on playing the China Arms Card, see Yurkov, S., “China and Western Europe,” Far Eastern Affairs, No. 4 (1979), pp. 94–95, 87.Google Scholar

* The authors are grateful to Dr. David Lampton for his comments regarding the prospects for basing, training and intelligence sharing arrangements.