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Using Microsimulation to Reassess Aging Trends in Canada

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 May 2014

Jacques Légaré ,
Yann Décarie  and
Alain Bélanger
Jacques Légaré*
Affiliation:
Département de démographie, Université de Montréal
Yann Décarie
Affiliation:
Centre Urbanisation Culture Société Institut national de la recherche scientifique, Montréal
Alain Bélanger
Affiliation:
Centre Urbanisation Culture Société Institut national de la recherche scientifique, Montréal
*
†La correspondance et les demandes de tirés-à-part doivent être adressées à: / Correspondence and requests for offprints should be sent to: Jacques Légaré, Université de Montréal – Démographie, C.P. 6128, Succursale “Centre Ville”, Montréal, QC H3C 3J7 ([email protected])
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Abstract

Population aging is the population issue of the XXI century and many indices are used to measure its level and pace. In Science (2010), Sanderson and Scherbov suggested improvements to the measure of elderly dependency ratio. They identified several limitations to the use of chronological age as the main variable and proposed a new index, the Adult Disability Dependency Ratio, defined as the number of adults at least 20 years old with disabilities divided by the number of similarly aged adults without disabilities. They used the Sullivan prevalence-based method by multiplying derived disability rates to macro population projections. They showed results for several ECE and OECD countries; results for Canada (see online annex, available at https://www.sciencemag.org/content/329/5997/1287/suppl/DC1) were derived using coefficients of Italy. However, disability is a complex multidimensional process (see Carrière, Keefe, Légaré, Lin, & Rowe, 2007; Légaré and Décarie, 2011), and microsimulation can take into account its implied complexity. Our results for Canada, presented here, exceed those in Science to show how more-sophisticated projections of disabled older adults can improve the analysis. We used LifePaths, a Statistics Canada’s microsimulation model, to provide a perspective of the phenomena unobtainable with prevalence-based methods.

Résumé

Le vieillissement de la population est l’enjeux démographique du XXI ième siècle et plusieurs indicateurs sont utilisés pour en mesurer le niveau et les tendances. Dans Science (2010), Sanderson et Scherbov ont suggéré des améliorations à la mesure du rapport de dépendance des personnes âgées. Ils ont identifié plusieurs limites à l’utilisation de l’âge chronologique comme la principale variable et ont proposé un nouvel indice, le rapport de dépendance des adultes avec incapacités, défini comme le nombre d’adultes ayant une incapacité qui ont au moins 20 ans, divisé par le nombre d’adultes du même âge sans incapacité. Ils ont utilisé la méthode de Sullivan, basée sur la prévalence, en multipliant des taux d’incapacité dérivés à des projections démographiques de niveau macro. Ils ont montré leurs résultats pour plusieurs pays de la CEE et de l’OCDE. Les résultats pour le Canada (voir l’annexe en ligne) ont été calculés en utilisant les coefficients de l’Italie. Cependant, l’incapacité est un processus complexe et multidimensionnel (voir Carrière et al, 2007; Légaré et Décarie, 2011), et la microsimulation peut tenir compte de cette complexité implicite. Nos résultats pour le Canada, présentés ici, sont supérieurs à ceux de Science, et indique comment des projections plus élaborées des personnes âgées avec incapacités peuvent améliorer l’analyse. Nous avons utilisé LifePaths, un modèle de microsimulation de Statistique Canada, pour fournir une perspective du phénomène du vieillissement impossible à obtenir en utilisant des méthodes basées sur la prévalence.

Keywords

vieillissmentCanadatendances futuresLifePathsmicrosimulationpolitique de populationagingCanadafuture trendsLifePathsmicrosimulationpopulation policies
Type
Research Notes / Notes de recherche
Information
Canadian Journal on Aging / La Revue canadienne du vieillissement , Volume 33 , Issue 2 , June 2014 , pp. 208 - 219
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Association on Gerontology 2014 

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