Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-t7czq Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-26T16:40:38.275Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Economic Impacts of Aging in Canada: Macroeconomic Indicators and Policy Implications*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 November 2010

David K. Foot
David K. Foot
Affiliation:
University of Toronto
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The declining rate of population growth and the consequent aging of the Canadian population is not a new phenomenon. However, current data and population projections suggest that the rate of aging will increase over the remainder of this century and beyond. From a macroeconomic viewpoint this implies a substantial decline in the growth of the labour force and, hence, the growth potential of the Canadian economy. However, this potential is also influenced by saving (and hence capital accumulation) and productivity performance. In these cases the impacts of population aging are relatively under-researched and reflect the resolution of conflicting forces. From a public policy viewpoint the pressures on government spending from demographic sources are at an historical minimum in the early 1980s, and hence this period offers a unique opportunity to develop the policies to effect the necessary transfer of public resources from programmes oriented towards the young to those oriented towards the senior members of Canadian society.

Résumé

Le déclin de la croissance démographique et le vieillissement de la population dont il s'accompagne n'est pas un phénomène nouveau au Canada. Les données actuelles et les projections démographiques indiquent toutefois que le taux de vieillissement ira en augmentant jusqu'à la fin de ce siècle et au-delà. Au point de vue macroéconomique, cette situation laisse supposer une diminution sensible du taux de croissance de la main d'oeuvre et, par suite, du potentiel de croissance de l'économie canadienne. Ce potentiel est cependant influencé par l'épargne (accumulation des capitaux) et la productivité réele. Or les incidences du vieillissement de la population en relation avec ces facteurs ont été assez peu étudiées et reflètent la résolution d'une opposition entre des facteurs antagonistes. Dans la perspective historique, la pression exercée sur les dépenses de l'Etat par les sources démographiques est tombée au minimum au début des années 1980; cette décennie constitue donc le moment le plus propice à l'élaboration de mesures destinées au transfert de fonds publics des programmes destinés aux jeunes aux programmes destinés à la population âgée.

Type
Articles
Information
Canadian Journal on Aging / La Revue canadienne du vieillissement , Volume 1 , Issue 3-4 , December 1982 , pp. 60 - 71
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Association on Gerontology 1982

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Aubry, J.P., & Fleurent, D.Stimulation Analysis of a Model Based on the Life-Cycle Hypothesis, Technical Report 18. Ottawa: Bank of Canada, 1980.Google Scholar
Auerbach, L., & Gerber, A.Implications of the Changing Age Structure of the Canadian Population, Perceptions 2. Ottawa: Science Council of Canada, 1976.Google Scholar
Boulet, J.A., & Grenier, G.Health Expenditures in Canada and the Impact of Demographic Changes on Future Government Health Insurance Program Expenditures, Discussion Paper No. 123. Ottawa: Economic Council of Canada, 1978.Google Scholar
Boyle, P., & Murray, J.Social Security Wealth and Private Saving in Canada, Canadian Journal of Economics, 1979, 12, No. 3 456–468.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Butz, W.P., & Ward, M.P.The Emergence of Countercyclical U.S. Fertility, American Economic Review 1978, 69, 318–328.Google Scholar
Clark, W., Devereaux, M.S., & Zsigmond, Z.The Class of 2001. Ottawa: Statistics Canada and the Canadian Teachers' Federation, 1979.Google Scholar
Clark, R., Kreps, J., & Spengler, J.Economics of Aging: A Survey. Journal of Economic Literature 1978, 16, 919–962.Google Scholar
Davies, G.W.Macroeconomic Effects of Immigration: Evidence from CANDIDE, TRACE and RDX2, Canadian Public Policy 1977, 3, 299–306.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Denton, F.T., & Spencer, B.G.Population and the Economy. Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, 1975.Google Scholar
Denton, F.T., & Spencer, B.G.On the Prospect of a Labour Shortage, Canadian Public Policy 1978, 4, 101–118.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Denton, F., Feaver, C., & Spencer, B.The Future Population and Labour Force of Canada: Projections to the Year 2051. Ottawa: Economic Council of Canada, 1980.Google Scholar
Department of Finance Canada, Participation and Labour Force Growth in Canada. Ottawa: Department of Finance Canada, 1980.Google Scholar
Easterlin, R.A.What will 1984 be Like? Socioeconomic Implications of Recent Twists in Age Structure, Demography 1978, 15, 397–432.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Epenshade, T.J., & Serow, W.J., eds. The Economic Consequences of Slowing Population Growth. New York: Academic Press, 1978.Google Scholar
Foot, D.K.Canada's Declining Long-Term Output Growth, Canadian Review 1975, 3, 5–17.Google Scholar
Foot, D.K.Public Policy and Future Population in Ontario. Toronto: Ontario Economic Council, 1979.Google Scholar
Foot, D.K. A Troubled Future? University Enrolments in Canada and the Provinces, in Nowlan, D.M. & Bellaire, R. (eds.), Financing Canadian Universities: For Whom and By Whom? Toronto: O.I.S.E. Press, 1981a.Google Scholar
Foot, D.K.A Challenge of the 1980s: Unemployment and Labour Force Growth in Canada and the Provinces. Toronto: Institute for Policy Analysis, University of Toronto, 1981b.Google Scholar
Foot, D.K.Canada's Population Outlook: Demographic Futures and Economic Challenges. Toronto: Lorimer for the Canadian Institute for Economic Policy, 1982.Google Scholar
Foot, D.K., & Trefler, D.Life Cycle Saving, Population Aging and the Capital Market, Mimeo, 1982.Google Scholar
Gross, M.J., & Schwenger, C.W.Health Care Costs for the Elderly in Ontario: 1976–2026. Toronto: Ontario Economic Council, 1981.Google Scholar
Lefebvre, L.A., Zsigmond, Z., & Devereaux, M.S.A Prognosis for Hospitals: The Effect ofGoogle Scholar
Population Change on the Need for Hospital Space, Catalogue No. 83–502E. Ottawa: Statistics Canada, 1979.Google Scholar
Ridler, N.B.Implications of the Projected Age Structure of Canada, Canadian Public Policy 1979, 5, 533–541.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sawyer, J.A.Prospects and Policies for Economic Growth, Economic Policy Review, 1979. 1, 11–25.Google Scholar
Stone, L.O., & Marceau, C.Canadian Population Trends and Public Policy Through the 1980s. Toronto: University of Toronto Press for the Institute for Research on Public Policy, 1977.Google Scholar
Statistics Canada, Population Projections for Canada and the Provinces, 1972–2001, Catalogue No. 91–514 Occasional. Ottawa: Information Canada, 1974.Google Scholar
Statistics Canada, Technical Report on Population Projection for Canada and the Provinces, 1972–2001, Catalogue No. 91–516 Occasional. Ottawa: Information Canada, 1975.Google Scholar
Statistics Canada, Population Projection for Canada and the Provinces, 1976–2001, Catalogue No. 91–520 Occasional. Ottawa: Information Canada, 1979a.Google Scholar
Statistics Canada, From the Sixties to the Eighties: A Statistical Portrait of Canadian Higher Education. Ottawa: Statistics Canada, 1979b.Google Scholar
Thurow, L.C.The Zero-Sum Society. New York: Basic Books, 1980.Google Scholar
Treasury Board Secretariat, Changing Population and the Impact on Government Age-Specific Expenditures, Mimeo. Ottawa: Treasury Board Secretariat, 1977.Google Scholar