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Demographic Change and the Cost of Publicly Funded Health Care

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 November 2010

Frank T. Denton  and
Byron G. Spencer
Frank T. Denton
Affiliation:
McMaster University
Byron G. Spencer
Affiliation:
McMaster University
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Abstract

This paper is concerned with questions relating to demographic change (population growth and aging) and its implications for operating a publicly funded health care system in a Canadian setting. It provides an assessment of how prospective population changes alone would affect the share of health care costs in total national income in Canada over the next several decades; it provides also an analysis of how actual patterns of hospital service provision changed in Ontario over the last decade in response to budgetary restrictions in a period of rising demand for services. Finally, a case is made for viewing health care as an integrated system; a description is provided of a set of computer-based models that have been developed to facilitate analysis of the health care system, and illustrative projections are discussed.

Résumé

Cet article aborde les questions ayant trait aux changements démographiques (croissance démographique et vieillissement) et leurs répercussions sur le fonctionnement d'un système de soins de santé financé par le public dans le contexte canadien. L'étude évalue comment les changements démographiques peuvent avoir, à eux seuls, une incidence sur la répartition du coût des soins de santé dans le revenu national canadien au cours des prochaines décennies. Elle analyse également comment les tendances actuelles en matière de prestation de services hospitaliers ont changé au cours des dix dernières années, en Ontario, à la suite de compressions budgétaires; période pendant laquelle la demande en services était à la hausse. Finalement, les auteurs soutiennent que les soins de santé doivent être perçus comme un système intégré. Ils décrivent une série de modèles informatisés qui ont été élaborés afin de faciliter l'analyse du système de soins de santé, et discutent de pronostics explicatifs.

Keywords

Demographic ChangeHealth ServicesHealth Care CostsIntegrated System.Changements démographiquessoins médicauxcoûtperspective systémique.
Type
Articles
Information
Canadian Journal on Aging / La Revue canadienne du vieillissement , Volume 14 , Issue 2 , Été/Summer 1995 , pp. 174 - 192
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Association on Gerontology 1995

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