Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-7cvxr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-01-05T05:47:55.446Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Local Politics and the Resource Curse: Natural Resources, Interest Heterogeneity and Protest in Bolivia

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 October 2018

Anaïd Flesken  and
Annegret Kuhn
Anaïd Flesken
Affiliation:
School of Sociology, Politics and International Studies, University of Bristol, 11 Priory Road, Bristol BS8 1TU, UK
Annegret Kuhn*
Affiliation:
Institute of Social Sciences/Political Science, Kiel University, Westring 400, 24118 Kiel, Germany
*
*Corresponding author. Email: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Studies of public contentious action in response to mineral resource extraction have rarely employed quantitative methods. In a highly disaggregated statistical analysis we examine local protest dynamics in Bolivia and argue for a political conditioning of the so-called resource curse. We find that mineral gas resources spark disputes over both extraction and rent redistribution at the local level, and that this relationship is especially pronounced where the population has highly heterogenous political values and interests. In contrast, where the population is relatively united in their political views, significantly fewer protests occur.

Résumé

Cet article étudie les incidences de protestation locale dans le contexte de l'extraction des ressources minérales, jusqu'ici rarement examinées avec des méthodes quantitatives. Dans une analyse statistique très désagrégée, nous examinons la dynamique de protestation locale en Bolivie et plaideons pour un conditionnement politique de la malédiction des ressources. Nos résultats montrent que les ressources de gaz minéral suscitent des controverses sur l'extraction et la redistribution des rentes au niveau local, et que cette relation est particulièrement marquée lorsque la population a des valeurs et des intérêts politiques très hétérogènes. En revanche, lorsque la population est relativement unie dans ses opinions politiques, il y a beaucoup moins de protestations.

Type
Research Article/Étude originale
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 52 , Issue 2 , June 2019 , pp. 385 - 403
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association (l'Association canadienne de science politique) and/et la Société québécoise de science politique 2018 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

We very much thank the project team of “A dangerous liaison? Ethnicity, natural resources and civil conflict onset” at the GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Hamburg, for making their protest event data available. We moreover thank Andrew Zammit-Mangion for assistance with the statistical analysis. Anaïd Flesken's work was partially supported by a postdoctoral research stipend granted by the Fritz Thyssen Foundation (AZ 40.14.0.006).

References

Altman, David and Lalander, Rickard. 2003. “Bolivia's Popular Participation Law: An Undemocratic Democratisation Process?” In Decentralisation and Democratic Governance. Experiences from India, Bolivia and South Africa, ed. Hadenius, Axel. Stockholm: Almqvist and Wiksell International.Google Scholar
Arce, Moises. 2015. “Resource Extraction, Political Fragmentation and Subnational Protest in Peru.” In Social Protest and Democratic Responsivenesss, ed. Foundation, EU-LAC. Hamburg: EU-LAC Foundation.Google Scholar
Arellano-Yanguas, Javier. 2011. “Aggravating the Resource Curse: Decentralisation, Mining and Conflict in Peru.” Journal of Development Studies 47 (4): 617–38.Google Scholar
Barndt, Willian T. 2012. “Destroying the Opposition's Livelihood: Pathways to Violence in Bolivia since 2000.” Journal of Politics in Latin America 4 (3): 3–37.Google Scholar
Basedau, Matthias and Pierskalla, Jan H.. 2014. “How Ethnicity Conditions the Effect of Oil and Gas on Civil Conflict: A Spatial Analysis of Africa from 1990 to 2010.” Political Geography 38 (1): 1–11.Google Scholar
Basedau, Matthias, Mähler, Annegret and Shabafrouz, Miriam. 2014. “Drilling Deeper: A Systematic, Context-Sensitive Investigation of Causal Mechanisms in the Oil–Conflict Link.” The Journal of Development Studies 50 (1): 51–63.Google Scholar
Bebbington, Anthony and Bury, Jeffrey, ed. 2013. Subterranean Struggles: New Dynamics of Mining, Oil, and Gas in Latin America. Austin: University of Texas-Austin Press.Google Scholar
Bebbington, Anthony, Bebbington, Denise Humphreys, Bury, Jeffrey, Lingan, Jeannet, Muñoz, Juan Pablo and Scurrah, Martin. 2008. “Mining and Social Movements: Struggles Over Livelihood and Rural Territorial Development in the Andes.” World Development 36 (12): 2888–2905.Google Scholar
Beblawi, Hazem and Luciani, Giacomo, ed. 1987. The Rentier State. London: Croom Helm.Google Scholar
Berry, William D., DeMerritt, Jacqueline H.R. and Esarey, Justin. 2010. “Testing for Interaction in Binary Logit and Probit Models: Is an Interaction Term Essential?” American Journal of Political Science 54 (1): 248–66.Google Scholar
Bland, Gary and Chirinos, Luis A.. 2014. “Democratization through Contention? Regional and Local Governance Conflict in Peru.” Latin American Politics and Society 56: 73–97.Google Scholar
Brambor, Thomas, Clark, William R. and Golder, Matt. 2006. “Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses.” Political Analysis 14 (1): 63–82.Google Scholar
British Petroleum Company 2014. BP Statistical Review of World Energy. London: British Petroleum Co.Google Scholar
Buhaug, Halvard. 2005. The Geography of Armed Civil Conflict. Doctoral thesis, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim.Google Scholar
Buhaug, Halvard and Rød, Jan K.. 2006. “Local Determinants of African Civil Wars, 1970–2001.” Political Geography 25 (3): 315–35.Google Scholar
Chong, Dennis. 1996. “Values Versus Interests in the Explanation of Social Conflict.” University of Pennsylvania Law Review 144 (5): 2079–2134.Google Scholar
Collier, Paul and Hoeffler, Anke. 2004. “Greed and Grievance in Civil War.” Oxford Economic Papers 56 (4): 563–95.Google Scholar
Colomer, Josep M. and Escatel, Luis E.. 2004. “The Left-Right Dimension in Latin America.” Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas, SDTEP working papers 165.Google Scholar
Conde, Marta and Billon, Philippe Le. 2017. “Why Do Some Communities Resist Mining Projects While Others Do Not?” The Extractive Industries and Society 4 (3): 681–97.Google Scholar
Congreso Nacional de Bolivia. 2004. Ley No 2771: Ley de Agrupaciones Ciudadans y Pueblos Indígenas.Google Scholar
Davenport, Christian and Trivedi, Priyamvada. 2013. “Activism and Awareness: Resistance, Cognitive Activation, and ‘Seeing’ Untouchability among 98,316 Dalits.” Journal of Peace Research 50 (3): 369–83.Google Scholar
Della Porta, Donatella and Diani, Mario. 2006. Social Movements: An Introduction. Malden: Blackwell.Google Scholar
Di John, Jonathan. 2007. “Oil Abundance and Violent Political Conflict: A Critical Assessment.” The Journal of Development Studies 43: 961–86.Google Scholar
Eaton, Kent. 2007. “Backlash in Bolivia: Regional Autonomy as a Reaction against Indigenous Mobilization.” Politics & Society 35 (1): 71–102.Google Scholar
Evia, José L., Laserna, Robert and Skaperdas, Sergios. 2008. “Socio-political Conflict and Economic Performance in Bolivia.” CESifo working paper, 2249: 1–49.Google Scholar
Flesken, Anaid. 2013. “Ethnicity without Group: Dynamics of Indigeneity in Bolivia.” Nationalism and Ethnic Politics 19 (3): 333–53.Google Scholar
Flesken, Anaid. forthcoming. “Why Ethnic Parties Form: Evidence from Bolivia.” Nations and Nationalism. 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1111/nana.12400.Google Scholar
Girod, Desha M., Stewart, Megan A. and Walters, Meir R.. 2016. “Mass Protests and the Resource Curse: The Politics of Demobilization in Rentier Autocracies.” Conflict Management and Peace Science. https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894216651826 (August 8, 2018).Google Scholar
Haarstad, Håvard. 2014. “Cross-scalar Dynamics of the Resource Curse: Constraints on Local Participation in the Bolivian Gas Sector.” The Journal of Development Studies 50 (7): 977–90.Google Scholar
Humphreys Bebbington, Denise and Bebbington, Anthony. 2010. “Anatomy of a Regional Conflict: Tarija and Resource Grievances in Morales's Bolivia.” Latin American Perspectives 37 (4): 140–60.Google Scholar
Inglehart, Ronald. 1990. “Values, Ideology, and Cognitive Mobilization in New Social Movements” In Challenging the Political Order, ed. Dalton, Russel and Kuechler, Manfred. Cambridge: Polity Press.Google Scholar
Instituto Nacional de Estadística. 2001. Censo 2001. http://apps.ine.gob.bo/censo/entrance.jsp (September 14, 2012).Google Scholar
Jakobson, Tor G. and Listhaug, Ola. 2014. “Social Change and the Politics of Protest.” In The Civic Culture Transformed, ed. Dalton, Russel and Welzel, Christian. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Jones, Mark P. 1997. “Racial Heterogeneity and the Effective Number of Candidates in Majority Runoff Elections: Evidence from Louisiana.” Electoral Studies 16 (3): 349–58.Google Scholar
Karl, Terry L. 2007. Oil-Led Development: Social, Political, and Economic Consequences. CDDRL Working Paper No. 80. Stanford: Stanford University.Google Scholar
King, Gary, Keohane, Robert and Verba, Sydney. 1994. Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Le Billon, Philippe. 2012. Wars of Plunder: Conflicts, Profits and the Politics of Resources. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Lujala, Paivi. 2010. “The Spoils of Nature: Armed Conflict and Rebel Access to Natural Resources.” Journal of Peace Research 47: 15–28.Google Scholar
Lujala, Paivi, Rød, Jan Ketil and Thieme, Nadja. 2007. “Fighting over Oil: Introducing a New Dataset.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 24 (3): 239–56.Google Scholar
Mähler, Annegret and Pierskalla, Jan. 2015. “Indigenous Identity, Natural Resources and Contentious Politics in Bolivia: A Disaggregated Conflict Analysis 2000–2011.” Comparative Political Studies 48 (3): 301–32.Google Scholar
Mahdavy, Hussein. 1970. “The Patterns and Problems of Economic Development in Rentier States: The Case of Iran.” In Studies in the Economic History of the Middle East, ed. Cook, M.A.. London: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Marcelino, Daniel. 2015. SciencePo: A Tool Set for Analyzing Political Behavior Data: CRAN.Google Scholar
McGuirk, Eoin. 2013. “The Illusory Leader: Natural Resources, Taxation and Accountability.” Public Choice 154 (3–4): 285–313.Google Scholar
Ministerio de Autonomía. 2009. Estado de Situación Sociodemográfica de los Municipios en Bolivia: Periodo 2005–2009. La Paz: Editora PRESENCIA.Google Scholar
Ministerio de Autonomía. 2010. Índice de Gobernabilidad Municipal 2005–2009. La Paz: PGD Impresiones.Google Scholar
Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas Públicas. nd. Transferencias a los Gobiernos Municipales 2005–2011. La Paz: Unidad de Gestión Presupuestaria y Presupuesto Plurinacional.Google Scholar
Moseley, Mason. 2015. “Contentious Engagement: Understanding Protest Participation in Latin American Democracies.” Journal of Politics in Latin America 7 (3): 3–48.Google Scholar
Oberschall, Anthony. 1993. Social Movements: Ideologies, Interests, and Identities. New Brunswick: Transaction.Google Scholar
Paler, Laura. 2013. “Keeping the Public Purse: An Experiment in Windfalls, Taxes, and the Incentives to Restrain.” American Political Science Review 107 (4): 706–25.Google Scholar
Pendergast, Shannon, Clarke, Judith and Van Kooten, Cornelius. 2011. “Corruption, Development and the Curse of Natural Resources.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 44 (2): 411–37.Google Scholar
Perreault, Thomas. 2008. Natural Gas, Indigenous Mobilization and the Bolivian State. Identities, Conflict and Cohesion Programme Paper No. 12. Geneva: United Nations Research Institute for Social Development.Google Scholar
Ponce, Aldo F. and McClintock, Cynthia. 2014. “The Explosive Combination of Inefficient Local Bureaucracies and Mining Production: Evidence from Localized Societal Protests in Peru.” Latin American Politics and Society 56 (3): 118–40.Google Scholar
Posner, Daniel N. 2004. “Measuring Ethnic Fractionalization in Africa.” American Journal of Political Science 48 (4): 849–63.Google Scholar
Romero Ballivián, Salvado. 2005. En la Bifurcación del Camino: Análisis de Resultados de las Elecciones Municipales 2004. La Paz: Corte Nacional Electoral.Google Scholar
Ross, Michael. 2001. “Does Oil Hinder Democracy?” World Politics 53 (3): 325–61.Google Scholar
Ross, Michael. 2012. The Oil Curse: How Petroleum Wealth Shapes the Development of Nations. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Schilling-Vacaflor, Almut and Kuhn, Annegret. 2015. “Contentious State-Society Interactions over New Gas Projects: Lessons from Bolivia.” In Social Protest and Democratic Responsivenesss, ed. Foundation, EU-LAC. Hamburg: EU-LAC Foundation.Google Scholar
Snyder, Richard. 2001. “Scaling Down: The Subnational Comparative Method.” Studies in Comparative International Development 36 (1): 93–110.Google Scholar
Sorens, Jason. 2011. “Mineral Production, Territory, and Ethnic Rebellion: The Role of Rebel Constituencies.” Journal of Peace Research 48 (5): 571–85.Google Scholar
Tsai, Tsung-han and Gill, Jeff. 2013. “Interactions in Generalized Linear Models: Theoretical Issues and an Application to Personal Vote-earning Attributes.” Social Sciences 2: 91–113.Google Scholar
United Nations Statistics Division. 2016. Bolivia (Plurinational State of). http://data.un.org/CountryProfile.aspx?crName=Bolivia%20%28Plurinational%20State%20of%29 (Jan. 18, 2016).Google Scholar
Watts, Michael. 2008. Imperial Oil: The Anatomy of a Nigerian Oil Insurgency. Niger Delta Working Papers No. 17. Berkeley: Institute of International Studies, University of California.Google Scholar
Webber, Jeffrey. R. 2011. From Rebellion to Reform in Bolivia: Class Struggle, Indigenous Liberation and the Politics of Evo Morales. Chicago: Haymarket Books.Google Scholar
Weisbrot, Mark and Sandoval, Luis. 2008. The Distribution of Bolivia's Most Important Natural Resources and the Autonomy Conflicts. Issue Brief No. July 2008. Center for Economic and Policy Research. http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/bolivia_land_2008_07.pdf. (Sept. 14, 2012).Google Scholar
Zald, Mayer N. 2000. “Ideologically structured action: An Enlarged Agenda for Social Movement Research.” Mobilization 5 (1): 1–16.Google Scholar