Hostname: page-component-6bf8c574d5-b4m5d Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-02-16T16:10:28.188Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

French National Elections: Democratic Disequilibrium and the 2007 Forecasts

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 March 2010

Éric Bélanger  and
Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Éric Bélanger*
Affiliation:
McGill University
Michael S. Lewis-Beck*
Affiliation:
University of Iowa
*
Éric Bélanger, Department of Political Science, McGill University, 855 Sherbrooke Street West, Montreal, CanadaH3A 2T7, [email protected].
Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Department of Political Science, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa 52242, [email protected].
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Abstract. The outcome of the 2007 elections in France raises a number of questions about the current state of democracy in that country. To put these elections into perspective, we examine the evolution of the French party system and electorate throughout the Fifth Republic. We look first at the pattern of party electoral movement over time. Then we evaluate the partisan cycle with respect to certain equilibrium conditions, namely stability, competition, and democratic rule. Based on these patterns, we arrive at a classification of French national elections using the Michigan school's theoretical framework. A key conclusion is that, in general, these Fifth Republic elections are in disequilibrium and often fail to express the majority partisan will. The 2007 results, which represent a return of the traditional right, are examined against the Iowa forecasting model, to see if they depart from these troubling conclusions.

Résumé. Les résultats des élections de 2007 en France soulèvent une série de questions à propos de l'état de la démocratie dans ce pays. Afin de mettre ces élections en perspective, nous examinons l'évolution du système partisan et des inclinaisons idéologiques de l'électorat français sous la Cinquième République. Nous nous attardons d'abord au mouvement dans le temps des appuis partisans. Nous évaluons ensuite l'équilibre du cycle partisan en France sur la base de certaines conditions, à savoir la stabilité, la compétition et la gouverne démocratique. Cet exercice permet d'en arriver à une classification des élections nationales françaises inspirée du cadre théorique de l'école de Michigan. La conclusion principale de cette analyse est qu'en général, ces élections attestent d'un déséquilibre, car le plus souvent, elles n'expriment pas la volonté majoritaire de l'électorat. Les élections de 2007, marquées par un retour en force de la droite, sont enfin analysées à la lumière du modèle de prévision électorale dit «de l'Iowa» afin de vérifier si elles s'inscrivent ou non dans cette dynamique de déséquilibre.

Type
Symposium: Electoral Forecasting and the 2007 French Presidential Elections
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 43 , Issue 1 , March 2010 , pp. 107 - 122
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association 2010

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Bélanger, Éric, Lewis-Beck, Michael S., Chiche, Jean and Tiberj, Vincent. 2006. “Party, Ideology, and Vote Intentions: Dynamics from the 2002 French Electoral Panel.” Political Research Quarterly 59: 503–15.Google Scholar
Blais, André. 2005. “Accounting for the Electoral Success of the Liberal Party in Canada.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 38: 821–40.Google Scholar
Boy, Daniel and Mayer, Nonna. 1993. The French Voter Decides. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E. and Stokes, Donald E.. 1960. The American Voter. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E. and Stokes, Donald E.. 1961. “Stability and Change in 1960: A Reinstating Election.” American Political Science Review 55: 269–80.Google Scholar
Clarkson, Stephen. 2005. The Big Red Machine: How the Liberal Party Dominates Canadian Politics. Vancouver: University of British Columbia Press.Google Scholar
Converse, Philip E. and Pierce, Roy. 1986. Political Representation in France. Cambridge: Belknap-Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Evans, Jocelyn A.J. 2004. “Ideology and Party Identification: A Normalization of French Voting Anchors?” In The French Voter: Before and After the 2002 Elections, ed. Lewis-Beck, Michael S.. Basingstoke UK: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
Fauvelle-Aymar, Christine, and Lewis-Beck, Michael S.. 1997. “L'Iowa donne l'opposition gagnante.” Libération (Paris), May 23, p. 15.Google Scholar
Fauvelle-Aymar, Christine and Lewis-Beck, Michael S.. 2002. “Pour l'Iowa, avantage Jospin.” Libération (Paris), May 21, p. 6.Google Scholar
Fleury, Christopher J. and Lewis-Beck, Michael S.. 1993. “Anchoring the French Voter: Ideology versus Party.” Journal of Politics 55: 1100–09.Google Scholar
Hellwig, Timothy. 2007. “Political Attitudes and the French Presidential Campaign: No Longer the Stalled Electorate?” European Politics and Society Newsletter 6 (1): 17–19.Google Scholar
Inglehart, Ronald. 1990. Culture Shift. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Jérôme, Bruno, Jérôme-Speziari, Véronique and Lewis-Beck, Michael S.. 2006. “Partisan Dynamics in the European ‘Nation.’” Paper presented at the Midwest Political Science Association Meetings, Chicago.Google Scholar
Knapp, Andrew. 2004. Parties and the Party System in France: A Disconnected Democracy? Basingstoke UK: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lebo, Matthew J. and Norpoth, Helmut. 2007. “The PM and the Pendulum: Dynamic Forecasting of British Elections.” British Journal of Political Science 37: 71–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
LeDuc, Lawrence. 2007. “Realignment and Dealignment in Canadian Federal Politics.” In Canadian Parties in Transition, ed. Gagnon, Alain-G. and Tanguay, A. Brian. 3rd ed.Peterborough: Broadview Press.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. 1984. “France: The Stalled Electorate.” In Electoral Change in Advanced Industrial Societies: Realignment or Dealignment? ed. Dalton, Russell J., Flanagan, Scott C. and Beck, Paul Allen. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. 1986. “Les législatives de 1986: nouveau clivage ou restauration?” Politique Économique 3: 31–33.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. 2004. “French Election Theories and the 2002 Results: An Introduction.” In The French Voter: Before and After the 2002 Elections, ed. Lewis-Beck, Michael S.. Basingstoke UK: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., Bélanger, Éric and Fauvelle-Aymar, Christine. 2008a. “Forecasting the 2007 French Presidential Election: Ségolène Royal and the Iowa Model.” French Politics 6: 106–15.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. and Chlarson, Kevin. 2002. “Party, Ideology, Institutions and the 1995 French Presidential Election.” British Journal of Political Science 32: 489–512.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., Jacoby, William G., Norpoth, Helmut and Weisberg, Herbert F.. 2008b. The American Voter Revisited. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. and Stegmaier, Mary. 2007. “Economic Models of Voting.” In The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior, ed. Dalton, Russell J. and Klingemann, Hans-Dieter. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Martin, Pierre. 2002. “Les élections de 2002 constituent-elles un ‘moment de rupture’ dans la vie politique française?” Revue française de science politique 52: 593–606.Google Scholar
Mayhew, David R. 2002. Electoral Realignment: A Critique of an American Genre. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Michelat, Guy. 1993. “In Search of Left and Right.” In The French Voter Decides, ed. Boy, Daniel and Mayer, Nonna. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Michelat, Guy and Tiberj, Vincent. 2007. “Gauche, centre, droite et vote: permanence et mutation d'une opposition.” Revue française de science politique 57: 371–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norpoth, Helmut. 2002. “On a Short Leash: Term Limits and the Economic Voter.” In Economic Voting, ed. Dorussen, Han and Taylor, Michaell. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
Norpoth, Helmut. 2004. “Forecasting British Elections: A Dynamic Perspective.” Electoral Studies 23: 297–305.Google Scholar
Pierce, Roy. 1995. Choosing the Chief: Presidential Elections in France and the United States. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Stokes, Donald E. and Iversen, Gudmund. 1966. “On the Existence of Forces Restoring Party Competition.” In Elections and the Political Order, ed. Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E. and Stokes, Donald E.. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar