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Fonctions de vote et prévisions électorales, une application à la présidentielle française de 2007

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 March 2010

Bruno Jérôme  and
Véronique Jérôme-Speziari
Bruno Jérôme*
Affiliation:
Université de Paris II Panthéon Assas, LARGEPA-IRGEI Paris II
Véronique Jérôme-Speziari*
Affiliation:
Université de Paris-Sud XI, LARGEPA-IRGEI Paris II
*
Bruno Jérôme, Université de Paris II Panthéon-Assas, 1 rue d'Ulm, 75005-Paris, France. Institut de Recherche sur la Gouvernance et l'Economie des Institutions (IRGEI) et Laboratoire de Recherche en Sciences de Gestion Panthéon-Assas (LARGEPA), [email protected].
Véronique Jérôme-Speziari, Université de Paris Sud XI, 54 Bld Desgranges, BP 104, 92331, Sceaux Cedex, France. LARGEPA, 13, avenue Bosquet 75007 Paris, France. [email protected].
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Abstract

Résumé. Prévoir le vote en tant que révélation des préférences des citoyens dans les choix collectifs permet d'évaluer les chances de succès des sortants ou de l'opposition et d'anticiper les politiques publiques futures. Dans cet article, nous donnons une prévision de l'élection présidentielle de 2007 en France à partir d'une fonction de vote mobilisant les apports de la théorie des choix publics et de la science politique des comportements électoraux. Les prévisions générées au niveau territorial sont plus pertinentes pour le second tour que pour le premier tour. Nous offrons quelques éléments d'explication et des pistes d'amélioration pour 2012.

Abstract. Forecasting votes understood as citizens revealed preferences in collective choices allow to evaluate electoral success opportunities both for incumbents and opposition and to anticipate future public policies. In this paper, we provide forecasts for the 2007 French presidential election gathering contributions from Public Choice theory and Political science dealing with electoral behaviors. Forecasts generated at a sub-national level exhibit more accuracy at the second round than at the first one. We propose some explanation and improvements for 2012.

Type
Symposium: Electoral Forecasting and the 2007 French Presidential Elections
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 43 , Issue 1 , March 2010 , pp. 163 - 186
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association 2010

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