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Externalization of Conflict: Testing a Crisis-Based Model
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 10 November 2009
Abstract
This study will investigate the problematic character of externalization theory, which posits that national leaders sometimes engage in foreign conflict in order to restore domestic cohesion. The first stage is a reassessment of the behavioural literature that, for two decades, has failed to support the theory, despite commonly held expectations to the contrary. Some significant discrepancies between theory and testing are uncovered during the review. These missing elements of externalization subsequently are incorporated in a crisis-oriented model. This model of crisis resolution, based on domestic conflict change as the independent variable and war versus de-escalation as the dependent variable, is tested using International Crisis Behaviour Project data from 1948–1975. The results are encouraging to the theory and suggest the value of further research in the area.
Résumé
Cette enquête examine la théorie de l'externalisation, en incluant l'argument contestable que les chefs politiques engageaient autrefois leur pays dans les conflits externes afin de rétablir la cohésion chez eux. Malgré les attentes des chercheurs, les résultats de la recherche ne soutiennent pas la théorie depuis 20 ans. La premiére partie de l'article révèle des discordances importantes entre la théorie et les résultats dans le programme de vérification de la recherche. Ensuite, ces éléments manqués du processus d'externalisation font partie d'un modèle de crise. Ce modèle de la résolution d'une crise traite du changement au niveaux des conflits internes comme variable indépendante de la guerre ou la désescalade comme variable dépendante. Le modèle est vérifié avec les données de l'International Crisis Behaviour Project, 1948–1975. Les résultats indiquent dans quel sens il vaut la peine de poursuivre la recherche en la matière.
- Type
- Research Article
- Information
- Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 20 , Issue 3 , September 1987 , pp. 573 - 598
- Copyright
- Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association (l'Association canadienne de science politique) and/et la Société québécoise de science politique 1987
References
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17 This description follows International Crisis Behaviour (ICB) Project Case Summary #195, in Michael Brecher and Jonathan Wilkenfield, Handbook on International Crises, forthcoming.
18 The internal conflict data are aggregated on an annual basis, so it is impossible to measure change over the exact one-year period preceding the outbreak of an international crisis. However, the current approach does give an approximate measurement of the trend in domestic conflict over the pre-crisis phase.
19 The notation used for expected value corresponds to that of Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, The War Trap (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1981).Google ScholarPubMed
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22 The use of percentages rather than logarithms would create a bias in the other direction. For example, in percentage terms a change from 1 to 2 would outweigh an increase from 10 to 15 (100% compared to 50%). By contrast, in logarithmic terms the respective scores generated by equation (1) would be 0.30 and 0.78. Another alternative—weighting the scores by population size—would have approximately the same effect as the logarithmic transformation. However, it also would require the incorporation of further data, thus increasing the risk of using unreliable cross-national statistics.
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32 These rules of categorization are discussed at length in Small, Melvin and Singer, J. David, Resort to Arms: International and Civil Wars, 1816–1980 (Beverly Hills: Sage, 1980), 31–61.Google Scholar There are a few points of disagreement with COW concerning the wars that are included in Table 1. China Civil War (1948), Indonesian Independence (1948) and War of Attrition (1969) are here counted as wars even though they are not in the Singer-Small compilation. The first case is regarded as suitable because the US and Nationalist China were involved in the crisis and each was a nation-state, with the transition for the People's Republic into recognized status being difficult to pinpoint. When the military operations of the Dutch are taken into consideration, the Indonesian case is consistent with the conventional meaning of warfare, even though the casualty levels sustained are not easy to specify. An exception also is made for the War of Attrition because the historical record demonstrates that the participants considered it to be a war in the common sense of the word.
33 Probit is a “particular nonlinear specification of the probability model” for a dichotomous dependent variable. It is based on the cumulative normal distribution function. See Aldrich, John H. and Nelson, Forrest D., Linear Probability, Logit, and Probit Models (Beverly Hills: Sage, 1984), 34–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
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35 Ibid., 57–59.
36 Seven cases have been dropped from the analysis because of missing data, including two wars: Korean War I (1950), Ethiopia/Somalia (1960), Congo I: Katanga (1960), Mali Federation (I960), Congo II (1964), Guinea Regime (1965) and War In Angola (1975).
37 Brecher and Wilkenfield, Handbook, Case Summary #203.
38 Brecher and Wilkenfield, Handbook, Case Summary #194.
39 Brecher and Wilkenfield, Handbook, Case Summary #115.
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