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Did Bill C-24 Affect Voter Turnout? Evidence from the 2000 and 2004 Elections

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 December 2006

Peter John Loewen
Affiliation:
Université de Montréal
André Blais
Affiliation:
Université de Montréal

Abstract

Abstract. By tying subsidies to vote totals, Bill C-24 substantially changed the way Canadian national parties are financed. This raises the possibility of increased voter turnout, as parties face greater incentives to maximize vote totals, and voters face greater incentives to turn out. We consider this possibility. We show that turnout was not differently affected by closeness in 2004 than in 2000; that candidates' efforts were not greater in 2004 in more marginal ridings; that there were no differences in the likelihood of abstaining or deserting a preferred third-place party in 2004 and 2000; and that at the individual level, the decision to turn out was not affected by strategic considerations in the expected direction. Accordingly, we find little support for the possibility that C-24 increased turnout.

Résumé. En liant les subventions au total des votes obtenus, la loi C-24 modifie substantiellement le financement des partis politiques nationaux au Canada. Ce changement pourrait induire une augmentation de la participation électorale puisque les partis ont intérêt à maximiser le nombre de votes et les électeurs sont davantage incités à voter. Nous examinons cette hypothèse. Nous démontrons que l'influence de l'intensité de la lutte entre les candidates sur la participation électorale n'a pas été différente en 2004 qu'en 2000; que les efforts des candidats n'ont pas été plus intenses en 2004 dans les circonscriptions perdues à l'avance; que la probabilité de s'abstenir ou de renoncer à appuyer un tiers parti n'a pas changé entre 2000 et 2004; et que la décision individuelle de participer à l'élection n'a pas été influencée par des considérations stratégiques allant dans la direction prévue. En conséquence, nous trouvons peu de preuves confirmant l'hypothèse selon laquelle la loi C-24 a favorisé la participation électorale.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© 2006 Cambridge University Press

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