Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-t8hqh Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-25T16:08:40.319Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Sex (And Ethnicity) in the City: Affinity Voting in the 2014 Toronto Mayoral Election

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  31 August 2016

Karen Bird ,
Samantha D. Jackson ,
R. Michael McGregor ,
Aaron A. Moore  and
Laura B. Stephenson
Karen Bird*
Affiliation:
McMaster University
Samantha D. Jackson*
Affiliation:
McMaster University
R. Michael McGregor*
Affiliation:
Ryerson University
Aaron A. Moore*
Affiliation:
University of Winnipeg
Laura B. Stephenson*
Affiliation:
University of Western Ontario
*
Department of Political Science, McMaster University, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton ON, L8S 4M4, Email: [email protected]
Department of Political Science, McMaster University, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton ON, L8S 4M4, Email: [email protected]
Department of Politics and Public Administration, Ryerson University, 350 Victoria Street, Toronto ON, M5B 2K3, Email: [email protected]
Department of Political Science, University of Winnipeg, 515 Portage Avenue, Winnipeg MB, R3B 2E9, Email: [email protected]
Department of Political Science, University of Western Ontario, 1151 Richmond St, London ON, N6A 3K7, Email: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Do women vote for women and men for men? Do visible minorities vote for minority candidates, and white voters for white candidates? And what happens when a minority woman appears on the ballot? This study tests for the presence of gender and ethnic affinity voting in the Toronto mayoral election of 2014, where Olivia Chow was the only woman and only visible minority candidate among the three major contenders. Our analysis, which draws on a survey of eligible Toronto voters, is the first to examine the interactive effects of sex and ethnicity on vote choice in Canada in the context of a non-partisan election and in a non-experimental manner. We find strong evidence of ethnic affinity voting and show that Chow received stronger support from ethnic Chinese voters than from other minority groups. Our results also reveal that gender was related to vote choice but only when connected with race.

Résumé

Les femmes votent-elles pour les femmes et les hommes pour les hommes? Est-ce que les minorités visibles votent pour des minorités visibles, et les électeurs blancs pour des candidats blancs? Quelle est la dynamique quand une candidate se présente qui est à la fois femme et minorité visible? La présente étude cherche à vérifier la présence du vote sur la base d'affinité de genre ou d'ethnicité lors de l’élection à la mairie de Toronto en 2014. Parmi les trois candidats compétitifs pour ce poste, Olivia Chow était la seule candidate femme et la seule candidate issue d'une minorité visible. Notre analyse, basé sur un sondage des électeurs torontois en règle, est le premier à examiner les effets interactifs du sexe et de l'ethnicité sur le choix du vote au Canada dans le contexte d'une élection non partisane et suivant une méthode non expérimentale. Nous trouvons des fortes indications de la présence d'un vote d'affinité ethnique et nous démontrons que Mme Chow a reçu plus d'appui des électeurs d'ethnicité chinoise que des autres groupes minoritaires. Nos résultats montrent également que le genre a affecté les choix électoraux, mais seulement en connexion avec la race.

Type
Research Article
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 49 , Issue 2 , June 2016 , pp. 359 - 383
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association (l'Association canadienne de science politique) and/et la Société québécoise de science politique 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Alcoba, Nathalie. 2014. “Chinese leaders urge community to support Toronto's first high-profile mayoral candidate of a visible minority.” Toronto Star, April 14. http://news.nationalpost.com/toronto/toronto-mayoral-candidate-olivia-chow (last accessed April 2015)Google Scholar
Andrew, Caroline, Biles, John, Siemiatycki, Myer and Tolley, Erin, eds. 2008. Electing a Diverse Canada: The Electoral Representation of Immigrants, Minorities and Women. Vancouver: UBC Press.Google Scholar
Barreto, Matt A. 2007. “¡Sı Se Puede! Latino Candidates and the Mobilization of Latino Voters.” American Political Science Review 101 (3): 425–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bejarano, Christina E. 2013. The Latina Advantage: Gender, Race, and Political Success. Austin: University of Texas Press.Google Scholar
Berdahl, Loleen, Adams, Christopher and Poelzer, Greg. 2011 “First Nations Candidacy and On-Reserve Voting in Manitoba: A Research Note.” https://umanitoba.ca/centres/mipr/media/First_Nations_Candidacy_and_On-Reserve_Voting_in_Manitoba.pdf.Google Scholar
Besco, Randy. 2015a. “The Causes of Co-Ethnic Affinity Voting: Ideology, Interests, and Identity.” Paper presented at the Midwest Political Science Association Conference. (place?)Google Scholar
Besco, Randy. 2015b. “Rainbow Coalition or Inter-Minority Conflict? RacialAffinity and Diverse Minority Voters.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 48 (2): 305–28.Google Scholar
Bird, Karen. 2011. “Patterns of Substantive Representation among Visible Minority MPs: Evidence from Canada's House of Commons.” In The Political Representation of Immigrants and Minorities, ed. Bird, Karen, Saalfeld, Thomas and M, Andreas. Wüst, New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Bird, Karen. 2016. “Understanding the Local Diversity Gap: Supply and Demand of Visible Minority Candidates in Ontario Municipal Politics.” In Just Ordinary Citizens? Towards a Comparative Portrait of the Political Immigrant, ed. Bilodeau, Antoine. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.Google Scholar
Blais, André, Nadeau, Richard, Gidengil, Elisabeth and Nevitte, Neil. 2002. Anatomy of a Liberal Victory: Making Sense of the Vote in the 2000 Canadian Election. Peterborough: Broadview Press.Google Scholar
Blais, André, Gidengil, Elisabeth, Dobrzynska, Agnieszka, Nevitte, Neil and Nadeau, Richard. 2003. “Does the Local Candidate Matter? Candidate Effects in the Canadian Election of 2000.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 36 (3): 657–64.Google Scholar
Black, Jerome H. and Erickson, Lynda. 2006. “Ethno-Racial Origins of Candidates and Electoral Performance: Evidence from Canada.” Party Politics 12 (4): 541–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bloemraad, Irene. 2006. Becoming a Citizen: Incorporating Immigrants and Refugees in the United States and Canada. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Bobo, Lawrence and Gilliam, Franklin D. Jr. 1990. “Race, Sociopolitical Participation, and Black Empowerment.” American Political Science Review 84 (2): 377–93.Google Scholar
Brians, Craig Leonard. 2005. “Women for Women? Gender and party bias in voting for female candidates.” American Politics Research 33 (3): 357–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brouard, Sylvain and Tiberj, Vincent. 2011. “Yes They Can: An Experimental Approach to the Eligibility of Ethnic Minority Candidates in France.” In The Political Representation of Immigrants and Minorities, ed. Bird, Karen, Saalfeld, Thomas and M, Andreas. Wüst, New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Brown, Clyde, Heighberger, Neil R. and Shocket, Peter A.. 1993. “Gender-Based Differences in Perceptions of Male and Female City Council Candidates.” Women and Politics 13 (1): 1–17.Google Scholar
Casellas, Jason P. 2009. “Coalitions in the House? The Election of Minorities to State Legislatures and Congress.” Political Research Quarterly 62: 120–31.Google Scholar
Celis, Karen, Erzeel, Siliva, Mügge, Liza and Damstra, Alyt. 2014. “Quotas and Intersectionality: Ethnicity and Gender in Candidate Selection.” International Political Science Review 35 (1): 41–54.Google Scholar
Citrin, Jack, Green, Donald Philip and Sears, David O.. 1990. “White Reactions to Black Candidates: When Does Race Matter?” Public Opinion Quarterly 54 (1): 74–96.Google Scholar
Collet, Christian. 2005. “Bloc Voting, Polarization, and the Panethnic Hypothesis: The Case of Little Saigon.” The Journal of Politics 67 (3): 907–33.Google Scholar
Collet, Christian. 2008. “Minority Candidates, Alternative Media, and Multiethnic America: Deracialization or Toggling?” Perspectives on Politics 6 (4): 707–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Conover, Pamela and Feldman, Stanley. 1989. “Candidate Perception in an Ambiguous World: Campaigns, Cues, and Inference Processes.” American Journal of Political Science 33 (4): 912–40.Google Scholar
Crowder-Meyer, Melody, Gadarian, Shana Kushner and Trounstine, Jessica. 2015. “Electoral Institutions, Gender stereotypes, and Women's Local Representation.” Politics, Groups, and Identities, 3 (2): 318–34.Google Scholar
Cunningham, Robert. 1971. “The Impact of the Local Candidate in Canadian Federal Elections.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 4 (2): 287–90.Google Scholar
Cutler, Fred. 2002. “The Simplest Shortcut of All: Sociodemographic Characteristics and Electoral Choice.” Journal of Politics 64 (2): 466–90.Google Scholar
Cutler, Fred and Matthews, J. Scott. 2005. “The Challenge of Municipal Voting: Vancouver 2002.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 38 (2): 359–82.Google Scholar
Dawson, Michael C. 1994. Behind the Mule: Race and Class in African-American Politics. Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Deckman, Melissa. 2007. “Gender Differences in the Decision to Run for School Board.” American Politics Research 35 (4): 541–63.Google Scholar
Dolan, Kathleen. 2008. “Is There a “Gender Affinity Effect” in American Politics? Information, Affect, and Candidate Sex in U.S. House Elections.” Political Research Quarterly 61 (1): 79–89.Google Scholar
Dolan, Kathleen. 2014. When Does Gender Matter? Women Candidates and Gender Stereotypes in American Elections. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Ekstrand, Laurie E. and Eckert, William A.. 1981. “The Impact of Candidate's Sex on Voter Choice.” The Western Political Quarterly 34 (1): 78–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fisher, Stephen D., Heath, Anthony F., Sanders, David and Sobolewska, Maria. 2014. “Candidate Ethnicity and Vote Choice in Britain.” British Journal of Political Science: 45 (4): 883–905.Google Scholar
Fiske, Susan T. and Kinder, Donald R.. 1981. “Involvement, Expertise, and Schema Use: Evidence from Political Cognition.” In Personality, Cognition, and Social Interaction, ed. Cantor, N. and Kihlstrom, J.. Hillsdale NJ: Erlbaum.Google Scholar
Frances, Frisken and Wallace, Marcia. 2000 (rev. 2002). “The Response of the Municipal Public Service Sector to the Challenge of Immigrant Settlement.” Report prepared for Citizenship and Immigration Canada. Ottawa. http://atwork.settlement.org/downloads/Municipal_Sector.pdf.Google Scholar
Good, Kristen R. 2009. Municipalities and Multiculturalism: The Politics of Immigration in Toronto and Vancouver. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.Google Scholar
Goodyear-Grant, Elizabeth. 2010. “Who Votes for Women Candidates and Why?” In Voting Behaviour in Canada, ed. Anderson, Cameron D. and Stephenson, Laura B.. Vancouver: University of British Columbia Press.Google Scholar
Goodyear-Grant, Elizabeth, and Croskill, Julie. 2011. “Gender affinity effects in vote choice in Westminster systems: Assessing ‘flexible’ voters in Canada.” Politics & Gender 7 (2): 223–50.Google Scholar
Graham, Katherine A. H. and Phillips, Susan D.. 2007. “Another Fine Balance: Managing Diversity in Canadian Cities.” In Belonging? Diversity, Recognition and Shared Citizenship in Canada, ed. Banting, Keith, Courchene, Thomas J. and Seidle, F. Leslie. Montreal: IRPP.Google Scholar
Highton, Benjamin. 2004. “White Voters and African American Candidates for Congress.” Political Behavior 26 (1): 1–25.Google Scholar
Houpt, Simon and Church, Elizabeth. 2014. “Olivia Chow gains endorsements for mayor from influential women.” Globe & Mail (Toronto), October 9. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/olivia-chow-gains-endorsements-for-mayor-from-influential-women/article21042610./ Google Scholar
Huddy, Leonie, and Terkildsen, Nayda. 1993. “The consequences of gender stereotypes for women candidates at different levels and types of office.” Political Research Quarterly 46 (3): 503–25.Google Scholar
Kaufmann, Karen M. 2003a. “Cracks in the Rainbow: Group Commonality as a Basis for Latino and African-American Political Coalitions.” Political Research Quarterly 56 (2): 199–210.Google Scholar
Kaufmann, Karen M. 2003b. “Minority Empowerment in Denver, Colorado: How Black and Latino Voters Respond to Each Other's Political Leadership.” Political Science Quarterly 118 (1): 107–25.Google Scholar
Kaufmann, Karen M. 2004. The Urban Voter: Group Conflict and Mayoral Voting Behavior in American Cities. Ann Arbor MI: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, David, and Matland, Richard. 2003. “Sex and the Grand Old Party: An Experimental Investigation of the Effect of Candidate Sex on Support for a Republican Candidate.” American Politics Research 31 (6): 595–612.Google Scholar
Koch, Jeffrey W. 2000. “Do Citizens Apply Gender Stereotypes to Infer Candidates’ Ideological Orientations?” The Journal of Politics 62: 414–29.Google Scholar
Koch, Jeffrey W. 2002. “Gender Stereotypes and Citizens’ Impressions of House Candidates’ Ideological Orientations.” American Journal of Political Science 46 (2): 453–62.Google Scholar
Landa, Janet, Copeland, Michael and Grofman, Bernard. 1995. “Ethnic Voting Patterns: A Case Study of Metropolitan Toronto.” Political Geography 14 (5): 435–49.Google Scholar
Lo, Lucia. 2008. “DiverCity Toronto: Canada's Premier Gateway City.” In Migrants to the Metropolis: The Rise of Immigrant Gateway Cities, ed. Price, M. and Benton-Short, L.. Syracuse: Syracuse University Press.Google Scholar
Markus, Hazel and Zajonc, Robert B.. 1985. “The Cognitive Perspective in Social Psychology.” Handbook of Social Psychology 1: 137–230.Google Scholar
Matson, Marsha and Fine, Terri Susan. 2006. “Gender, Ethnicity, and Ballot Information: Ballot Cues in Low-Information Elections.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 6 (1): 49–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McClain, Paula D., Carew, Jessica D. Johnson, Walton, Eugene Jr. and Watts, Candis S.. 2009. “Group Membership, Group Identity, and Group Consciousness: Measures of Racial Identity in American Politics?” Annual Review of Political Science 12: 471–85.Google Scholar
McConnaughy, Corrine M., White, Ismail K., Leal, David L. and Casellas, Jason P.. 2010. “A Latino on the Ballot: Explaining Coethnic Voting among Latinos and the Response of White Americans.” The Journal of Politics 72 (4): 1199–1211.Google Scholar
McDermott, Monika L. 1997. “Voting Cues in Low-Information Elections: Candidate Gender as a Social Information Variable in Contemporary United States Elections.” American Journal of Political Science 41 (1): 270–83.Google Scholar
McDermott, Monika L. 1998. “Race and Gender Cues in Low-Information Elections.” Political Research Quarterly 51 (4): 895–918.Google Scholar
Moncrief, Gary, Thompson, Joel and Schuhmann, Robert. 1991. “Gender, Race, and the State Legislature: A Research Note on the Double Disadvantage Hypothesis.” Social Science Journal 28: 481–87.Google Scholar
Moskowitz, David and Stroh, Patrick. 1994. “Psychological Sources of Electoral Racism.” Political Psychology 15 (2): 307–29.Google Scholar
Murakami, Go. 2014. Candidates’ Ethnic Backgrounds and Voter Choice in Elections. Doctoral dissertation, University of British Columbia, Vancouver BC.Google Scholar
Paolino, Phillip. 1995. “Group-Salient Issues and Group Representation: Support for Women Candidates in the 1992 Senate Elections.” American Journal of Political Science 39 (2): 294–313.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pettigrew, Thomas F. 1976. “Black mayoral campaigns.” Urban Governance and Minorities (1976): 14–29.Google Scholar
Philpot, Tasha S. and Walton, Hanes Jr. 2007. “One of Our Own: Black Female Candidates and the Voters Who Support Them.” American Journal of Political Science 51 (1): 49–62.Google Scholar
Plutzer, Eric and Zipp, John F.. 1996. “Identity Politics, Partisanship, and Voting for Women Candidates.” The Public Opinion Quarterly 60 (1): 30–57.Google Scholar
Ramakrishnan, S. Karthick, Wong, Janelle, Lee, Taeku and Junn, Jane. 2009. “Race-based Considerations and the Obama Vote: Evidence from the 2008 National Asian American Survey.” Du Bois Review 6 (9): 219–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roy, Jason and Alcantara, Christopher. 2015. “The Candidate Effect: Does the Local Candidate Matter?” Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 25 (2): 195–214.Google Scholar
Saltzstein, Grace Hall. 1986. “Female Mayors and Women in Municipal Jobs.” American Journal of Political Science 30 (1): 140–64.Google Scholar
Sanbonmatsu, Kira. 2002. “Gender Stereotypes and Vote Choice.” American Journal of Political Science 46 (1): 20–34.Google Scholar
Sanbonmatsu, Kira and Dolan, Kathleen 2009. “Do Gender Stereotypes Transcend Party?” Political Research Quarterly 62 (3): 485–94.Google Scholar
Sanbonmatsu, Kira, Carrol, Susan and Walsh, Debbie. 2009. “Poised to Run: Women's Pathways to the State Legislatures. Center for American Women and Politics, Eagleton Institute of Politics. Rutgers: State University of New Jersey.Google Scholar
Schneider, Monica C. and Bos, Angela L.. 2014. “Measuring Stereotypes of Female Politicians.” Political Psychology 35 (2): 245–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Scola, Becki. 2007. “Women of Color in State Legislatures: Gender, Race, Ethnicity and Legislative Office Holding.” Journal of Women, Politics & Policy 28 (3–4): 43–70.Google Scholar
Scola, Becki. 2013. Gender, Race, and Office Holding in the United States: Representation at the Intersections. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Siemiatycki, Myer. 2011. “The Diversity Gap: The Electoral Under-Representation of Visible Minorities.” http://diversecitytoronto.ca/wp-content/uploads/Final-Report.pdf.Google Scholar
Siemiatycki, Myer, and Isin, Engin. 2007. “Immigration, Diversity and Urban Citizenship in Toronto.” Canadian Journal of Regional Science 20 (2): 73–102.Google Scholar
Siemiatycki, Myer, Rees, Tim, Ng, Roxana, and Rahi, Khan. 2001. “Integrating Community Diversity in Toronto: On Whose Terms?” CERIS Working Paper, No. 14.Google Scholar
Sigelman, Lee, Sigelman, Carol K., Walkosz, Barbara J., and Nitz, Michael. 1995. “Black Candidates, White Voters: Understanding Racial Bias in Political Perceptions.” American Journal of Political Science 39 (1): 243–65.Google Scholar
Smith, Adrienne R., Reingold, Beth and Owens, Michael Leo. 2012. “The Political Determinants of Women's Descriptive Representation in Cities.” Political Research Quarterly 65 (2): 315–29.Google Scholar
Smooth, Wendy G. 2006. “Intersectionality in Electoral Politics: A Mess Worth Making.” Politics & Gender 2 (3): 400–14.Google Scholar
Stein, Robert M., Ulbig, Stacy G. and Post, Stephanie Shirley. 2005. “Voting for Minority Candidates in Multiracial/Multiethnic Communities.” Urban Affairs 41: 157–81.Google Scholar
Tajfel, Henri. 1981. Human Groups and Social Categories: Studies in Social Psychology. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Tardy, Évelyne, Tremblay, Manon and Legault, Ginette. 1997. Maires et mairesses: Les femmes et la politique municipal. Montréal: Liber.Google Scholar
Terkildsen, Nayda. 1993. “When White Voters Evaluate Black Candidates: The Processing Implications of Candidate Skin Color, Prejudice, and Self-Monitoring.” American Journal of Political Science 37 (4): 1032–53.Google Scholar
Thomas, Melanee and Bodet, Marc André. 2013. “Sacrificial Lambs, Women Candidates, and District Competitiveness in Canada.” Electoral Studies 32 (1): 153–66.Google Scholar
Tolley, Erin. 2011. “Do Women “Do Better” in Municipal Politics? Electoral Representation Across Three Levels of Government.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 44 (3): 573–594.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tolley, Erin and Goodyear-Grant, Elizabeth. 2014. “Experimental Evidence on Race and Gender Affinity Effects in Candidate Choice.” Paper presented at the Canadian Political Science Association annual conference (Brock University, St. Catharines, Ontario).Google Scholar
Tossutti, Livianna S. and Najem, Tom-Pierre. 2002. “Minorities and Elections in Canada's Fourth Party System: Macro and Micro Constraints and Opportunities.” Canadian Ethnic Studies 34: 85–112.Google Scholar
Tremblay, Manon, and Mévellac, Anne. 2013. “Truly More Accessible to Women than the Legislature? Women in Municipal Politics.” In Stalled: The Representation of Women in Canadian Governments, ed, Trimble, Linda, Arscott, Jane and Tremblay, Manon. Vancouver: UBC Press.Google Scholar
Winter, Nicholas. 2010. “Masculine Republicans and Feminine Democrats: Gender and Americans’ Explicit and Implicit Images of the Political Parties.” Political Behavior 32 (4): 587–618.Google Scholar
Young, Lisa. 2006. “Women's Representation in the House of Commons.” In Representing Women in Parliament: A Comparative Study, ed. Sawer, Marian, Tremblay, Manon and Trimble, Linda. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar