Thinking on balance of payments matters has been dominated for so many years by particular day-to-day problems that a reconsideration of longer-run factors seems clearly to be a timely topic for discussion. Admittedly, in times like these, this type of study has severe limitations: of necessity it has to be largely speculative, and one can certainly not expect it to yield a blueprint for the future. Nevertheless, it is the aim of this paper to suggest that a careful study of current and prospective developments is more rewarding than might appear at first sight; that it discloses or emphasizes a number of important enduring tendencies that are bound to have a decisive influence on our balance of payments for a long while to come; and that a realization of them will provide some bearings in a realm which nowadays involves all too large an element of dead reckoning. Needless to say, owing to reasons of space it will not be possible to do more than sketch the principal changes and suggest some tentative conclusions.

The first of these trends, and perhaps the most important so far as the domestic economy is concerned, is the rebirth of natural resource development. Such development was, for many years, the main dynamic behind Canada's growth; however, it was in large measure inhibited for the better part of a generation except for a few specialized instances, first by the depression and later by the war. In spite of several recent spectacular discoveries, it is doubtful whether the full potential impact of these developments on our future balance of payments is adequately appreciated. Possibly the long interval of stagnation and reverses has tended to make Canadians rather cynical about favourable reports even when well substantiated. Admittedly nothing is easier than to be dazzled by thoughts of future riches; at the same time, however, a balanced appraisal of future prospects involves a realization of potential strengths as well as calculable risks. A good many of the projects referred to below are in their early stages and fall in the realm of the engineer and the geologist. But a general pattern of their magnitude and significance is beginning to emerge that merits the economist's attention.