¹ Cannan, Edwin, “The Changed Outlook in Regard to Population, 1831-1931” (Economic Journal, Dec., 1931).CrossRefGoogle Scholar Reference is there made to estimates of future population made by Professor Cannan before the British Association in 1895 and 1901.

² New York, 1928: volume I, Western and Northern Europe.

³ London, 1934.

⁴ Oxford, 1936. Three public lectures given at the University of London.

⁵ Oxford, 1936. Excellent as is this book in general, most Canadian economists will be sceptical of his belief in “the advantages of a larger population for Canada” and the consequent desirability of immigration. They are impressed by the fact that even in the decade of most rapid growth, 1901-11, when the West was being opened, the absolute increase was only 180,000 a year. The natural increase is now around 125,000 a year, and there is a considerable flow of returning Canadians.

⁶ See Griffith, G. T., Population Problems of the Age of Malthus (Cambridge, 1926)Google Scholar; also Marshall, T. H., “The Population Problem during the Industrial Revolution” (Economic History, vol. I, no. 4), for important criticism of Griffith.Google Scholar

⁷ For description of the factors responsible for this reduction in the death-rate see: Buer, M. C., Health, Wealth and Population in the early days of the Industrial Revolution (London, 1926)Google Scholar; and G. T. Griffith, Population Problems of the Age of Malthus, chaps. vii-x.

⁸ See Dublin, L. I. and Lotka, A. J., The Length of Life (New York, 1936)Google Scholar, for discussion of the causes of this more recent decline of mortality and of the prospects for a further decline.

⁹ Data from R. R. Kuczynski, The Measurement of Population Growth, a valuable study of demographic method and a repository of data on population growth. More exactly, the mean expectation of life is the average number of years that 510 male and 490 female live-born babies may expect to live. The expectation of life of females is a little higher (63 years as compared with 59 for males) and the proportion of female babies is slightly less than males (49.51).

¹⁰ Kuczynski, R. R., Population Movements (Oxford, 1936).Google Scholar See also Dublin and Lotka, The Length of Life, for life tables for many countries at various dates, and for a hypothetical life table showing their estimate of the “longevity attainable under modern medical and sanitary science.” See also R. M. Titmuss, Poverty and Population, a study of the comparative mortality of the relatively prosperous southeastern counties of England and one of the depressed areas (Durham and Northumberland) which reveals the effects of poverty. Deaths in this northern depressed area are in excess of those which would prevail if the specific death-rates of the south-eastern region applied by 66 per cent at the ages 0-4, 50 per cent at the ages 5-19, and from 20 to 44 per cent higher at other ages.

¹¹ Charles, Enid, “Present Trends in Fertility and Mortality” (in Political Arithmetic, ed. Hogben, L., London, 1938).Google Scholar

¹² Ibid., pp. 79-81.

¹³ Kuczynski, R. R., “The International Decline of Fertility” (in Political Arithmetic. p. 67).Google Scholar These results are shown in useful tabular form on p. 66.

¹⁴ Ibid., p. 61. These results are shown in tabular form on p. 60.

¹⁵ The Problems of a Changing Population: Report of the Committee on Population Problems to the National Resources Committee, pp. 6-7. All the information in this section is taken from this excellent report. It is the best starting point for any serious study of American population: complementary studies are Thompson, W. S. and Whelpton, P. K., Population Trends in the United States (New York, 1933)Google Scholar, and Goodrich, Carter, Migration and Economic Opportunity (Pittsburg, 1936).Google Scholar

¹⁶ See Lorimer, F. and Osborn, F., Dynamics of Population (New York, 1934)Google Scholar, for investigations of differential ability of social classes. Morris Siegel in Population, Race and Eugenics is an example of the worried eugenist. Enid Charles in the Twilight of Parenthood, and Hogben, L. in Political Arithmetic (p. 333)Google Scholar, give sound warnings as to the interpretation of such material. The second part of Political Arithmetic contains careful studies in “recruitment of social personnel,” e.g. “Ability and opportunity in English education,” “Ability and educational opportunity in relation to parental occupation,” “Opportunity and the older universities.”

¹⁷ This was a preliminary report on work in progress. See Edin, K. and Hutchinson, E. P., Studies of Differential Fertility in Sweden (London, 1935), for the finished work.Google Scholar

¹⁸ Twilight of Parenthood, p. 118.

¹⁹ P. 117. Dr. Innes's book represents the highest standards of scientific demography.

²⁰ The Natural History of Population, chapters on the “extent of contraception efforts in the American population” and on “the effects upon natural fertility of contraceptive efforts.”

²¹ A letter from J. S. Mill to a Professor Green, who seems to have been the father of a large family, shows that this economist's attitude to the population problem was largely determined by non-economic considerations. “You appear to think that no one ought to be blamed for having an inordinately large family if he produces and brings them up to produce enough for their support: now this, with me, is only a part, and only a small part of the question; a much more important consideration still is the perpetuation of the previous degradation of women, no alteration in which can be hoped for while their whole lives are devoted to the function of producing and rearing children. That degradation and slavery is, in itself, so enormous an evil … that the limitation of the number of children would be, in my opinion absolutely necessary to place human life on its proper footing even if there were subsistence for any number which could be produced. ( The Letters of J. S. Mitt, ed. by Elliott, H. R. R., London, 1910, p. 171.Google Scholar)

²² See, for example, Professor Hogben's “Prolegomena to Political Arithmetic” in Political Arithmetic. “It is symptomatic of the temper of social studies that the phlogistonist of demography is better known than Petty or Graunt both of whom made enduring contributions to the science of human welfare.” The reviewer is an admirer of Professor Hogben's Mathematics for the Million, and Science for the Citizen, as well as of the research in social biology which he stimulated in London, Nevertheless the assumption that economists are entirely ignorant of scientific method and unaware of the Baconian “idols” is scarcely justified. Most economic theorists would agree with Alfred Marshall that economic theory is “an essential but a very small part of economics proper” (Memorials, p. 437), would realize the danger of illustrating self-evident principles as did the phlogistonists (Science for the Citizen, p. 422), but are aware of the difficulty of isolating the effects of particular causes and of their disadvantage in being precluded from experiment.

²³ See Marshall, T. H., “The Population Problem during the Industrial Revolution” (Economic History, Jan., 1929)Google Scholar: “Things fell out as Malthus had feared. The preventive check was slow to act, and the positive check came into operation.”

²⁴ See Booker, H. S., “Parenthood and Poverty” (Economica, Nov., 1937).Google Scholar In this study of 715 working class families in England 19 per cent were living in poverty in the special sense that they could not afford the minimum weekly cost of food according to the standard of the British Medical Association. The percentage of families of given sizes who lived in poverty were: no children, 5 per cent; one child, 6 per cent; two children, 16 per cent; three children, 24 per cent; four children, 45 per cent; five children, 65 per cent; six children, 90 per cent; seven children and over, 100 per cent. Similar results are found in the New Survey of London Life and Labour and in Professor Bowley's studies of poverty in five English towns. There is a suggestion in Harriett Martineau's Autobiography (p. 209) that this personal aspect was not absent from Malthus's mind; it seems certain that it was uppermost in the mind of that early advocate of neo-Malthusianism, Francis Place; and it plays an important part in the modern literature of birth control, e.g. the article on birth control in the Encyclopaedia of the Social Sciences.

²⁵ “A word for the devil” reprinted in Economic Fragments (London, 1931).Google Scholar

²⁶ See Cannan, Edwin, Wealth (1928), chap. ivGoogle Scholar, and Review of Economic Theory (1929), chap, IV; also Robbins, Lionel “The Optimum Theory of Population” (in London Essays in Economics ed. by Dalton, H. and Gregory, T. E., 1927).Google Scholar There is an elaborate discussion of various concepts of the optimum, and of some international aspects thereof in Ferenczi, I., The Synthetic Optimum of Population (Paris, 1938).Google Scholar See also Peaceful Change (Paris, 1938)Google Scholar, which contains a report of the discussion on demographic questions at the International Studies Conference in 1937.

²⁷ Hansen, Alvin H., “Economic Progress and Declining Population Growth” (American Economic Review, 03, 1939).Google Scholar

²⁸ See H. D. Henderson, “Economic Consequences” (in The Population Problem, the Experts and the Public).

²⁹ Quoted in Glass, D. V., The Struggle for Population (Oxford, 1936).Google Scholar

³⁰ Hitler, A., Mein Kampf (New York, Reynal and Hitchcock, 1939), p. 979.Google Scholar See Kuczynski, R. R., Living Space and Population Problems (Oxford Pamphlets on World Affairs, no. 8, 1939).Google Scholar

³¹ Oxford, 1936.

³² This is an excellent detailed study of French population growth from 1700-1936; a review of French population literature; and an examination of the modern population policy of France.

³³ Pearl, , The Natural History of Population, p. 250.Google Scholar

³⁴ Henderson, H. D. in Population Problems, the Expert and the Public, p. 156.Google Scholar

³⁵ T. H. Marshall in ibid., pp. 173-4.

³⁶ Ibid., p. 175.

³⁷ World Population, pp. 107-9.