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EFFECTS OF CLIMATE AND FOREST STRUCTURE ON DURATION OF FOREST TENT CATERPILLAR OUTBREAKS ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO, CANADA

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  31 May 2012

Jens Roland ,
Brendan G. Mackey  and
Barry Cooke
Jens Roland
Affiliation:
Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T6G 2E9
Brendan G. Mackey
Affiliation:
Department of Geography, The Australia National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia
Barry Cooke
Affiliation:
Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T6G 2E9
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Abstract

We examined the effect of forest structure and climate on large-scale and long-term patterns of outbreaks of forest tent caterpillar, Malacosoma disstria Hbn., across central Ontario. This was done using previously published data on outbreak duration and forest heterogeneity, combined with high-resolution climatic data simulated by the recently developed Ontario Climate Model. Our analysis, which eliminates some of the spatially confounding effects of forest structure and climate, suggests that both the predicted long-term temperature minimum for the coldest month and the predicted growing degree-days in the first 6 weeks of the growing season are important determinants of outbreak duration, with colder weather being associated with shorter outbreaks. Forest heterogeneity accounts for more variation in outbreak duration than either of the climatic variables.

Résumé

Nous examinons l’effet de deux types de facteurs, l’hétérogénéité de la forêt et le climat, sur les patterns à long-terme des épidémies de la livrée de la forêt, Malacosoma disstria Hbn., dans la région centrale de la province de l’Ontario, Canada. L’analyse spatiale présentée ici considère simultanément des données forestière et épidémique extraites de la littérature, et de nouvelles données climatiques simulées à fine-échelle avec un nouveau modèle climatique pour l’Ontario. Notre analyse, qui élimine l’effet géographiquement confondant de l’hétérogénéité de la forêt et le climat, démontre que deux indices climatiques, la température minimum quotidienne attendue pendant l’hiver et le nombre attendu de degrés-jours depuis le début du printemps, sont importants en expliquant la variation spatiale dans la durée des épidémies, la froidesse étant associée à de courtes épidémies. Néanmoins, l’hétérogénéité de la forêt explique plus de variation que ces deux indices climatiques.

Type
Articles
Information
The Canadian Entomologist , Volume 130 , Issue 5 , October 1998 , pp. 703 - 714
Copyright
Copyright © Entomological Society of Canada 1998

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