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PROBABILITY ANALYSIS OF FLUCTUATIONS OF GRASSHOPPER POPULATIONS IN SASKATCHEWAN1

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  31 May 2012

M.K. Mukerji  and
H.N. Hayhoe
M.K. Mukerji
Affiliation:
Agriculture Canada Research Station, 107 Science Crescent, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada S7N 0X2
H.N. Hayhoe
Affiliation:
Land Resource Research Centre, Research Branch, Agriculture Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1A 0C6
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Abstract

Distribution of grasshopper populations was examined on a rural municipality (RM) basis over a 44-year period in Saskatchewan. A two-state Markov chain probability model was used to describe the transitional probabilities from high or low populations for different time steps. The analysis showed significant persistence of grasshopper populations in particular locations but the degree of persistence varied between RMs. The probability model was used to determine the expected duration of outbreaks or recessions. The potential usefulness of estimates of the expected duration of an outbreak is discussed in relation to crop protection.

Résumé

Les auteurs ont étudié la distribution des populations de criquets dans les municipalités rurales (MR) de la Saskatchewan sur une période de 44 ans. Ils ont utilisé un modèle de probabilité faisant appel à une chaîne de Markov à deux états pour décrire les probabilités de transition de "forte population" à "faible population" ou vice versa pour différents intervalles de temps. L’analyse a révélé une persistance significative des populations de criquets dans certains lieux et une variation du degré de persistance d’une municipalité rurale à l’autre. Le modèle de probabilité a servi à prévoir la durée des périodes d’invasion ou des périodes de recul. Les auteurs discutent de l’utilité, sur le plan de la protection des cultures, de pouvoir prévoir la durée des périodes d’invasion.

Type
Articles
Information
The Canadian Entomologist , Volume 120 , Issue 12 , December 1988 , pp. 1063 - 1070
Copyright
Copyright © Entomological Society of Canada 1988

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