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A DISTRIBUTION MODEL FOR EGG DEVELOPMENT IN MOUNTAIN PINE BEETLE

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  31 May 2012

J.A. Logan  and
G.D. Amman
J.A. Logan
Affiliation:
Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA 80523
G.D. Amman
Affiliation:
Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA 80523
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Abstract

Mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) population dynamics, as well as potential for outbreaks and resulting tree mortality, are related in part to habitat temperature. As a first step in development of a life-stage, event-oriented simulation model, we have modeled the temperature-dependent development of the egg stage. The completed model includes a full description of variation in developmental rates and is capable of predicting duration and eclosion patterns for any temperature regime. This model was parameterized using data obtained from constant-temperature experiments at temperatures of 8, 10, 12.5, 15, 20, 25, and 30°C. Validation experiments were conducted for constant temperatures of 15, 17.5, 22.5, and 27.5°C and for variable-temperature regimes of 15±5 and 15±10°C. Validation results indicated that the model is capable of accurately describing the emergence curve for constant temperatures below 27.5°C. The model also faithfully represents emergence under variable temperatures of 15 ± 10°C. Potential reasons for lack of model fidelity in describing emergence at constant high temperatures and for 15 ± 5°C are discussed in the text.

Résumé

La dynamique des populations du dendroctone du pin ponderosa (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins), de même que son potentiel épidémique et la mortalité des arbres qui en résulte, sont en partie dépendants de la température de l’habitat. Comme première étape dans le but d’élaborer un modèle de simulation du développement des stades, nous avons modélisé la relation entre le développement du stade oeuf et la température. Le modèle intégral comprend une description de la variation du taux de développement et peut prédire la durée et la courbe d’éclosion pour tout régime de température. Les paramètres du modèle ont été obtenus à partir d’expériences à température constante aux températures de 8, 10, 12,5, 15, 20, 25 et 30°C. Des tests de validation ont été effectués à 15, 17,5, 22,5 et 27,5°C et sous des régimes de température variable de 15 ± 5 et 15 ± 10°C. Les résultats de la validation indiquent que le modèle peut précisément prédire la courbe d’émergence à des températures constantes sous 27,5°C. Le modèle prévoit aussi fidèlement l’émergence à des températures variables de 15 ± 10°C. On discute des raisons possibles du manque de précision du modèle lorsqu’il s’agit de prédire l’émergence à des températures constantes plus élevées, et pour les régimes de 15 ± 5°C.

Type
Articles
Information
The Canadian Entomologist , Volume 118 , Issue 4 , April 1986 , pp. 361 - 372
Copyright
Copyright © Entomological Society of Canada 1986

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