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The Development of Discounted Cash Flow Techniques in U. S. Industry
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 13 December 2011
Abstract
This article supplies a missing piece in the story of the growth of managerial technology—the development of discounted cash flow techniques for projecting the profitability of capital budgeting alternatives. The article traces the origins of these methods in the industrial sector to the early work of railroad locating engineers and describes the refinement of DCF practices by AT&T and chemical firms. It concludes with a discussion of the diffusion of this analytic tool through the interaction of practicing engineers, consultants, professional associations, and scholarly publications.
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References
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2 The present value concept that will be discussed in this article may be defined by the equation:
V = ΣtXt(l + r)−t
where
Xt = cash flow in period t (including initial capital outlay)
r = discount rate
t = number of years or periods
V = present value
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40 Gregory's tables were based on Naperian logarithms:
where
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V = present value
e = base of Naperian logarithms
See J. C. Gregory, “Interest Rate Tables for Determining Rate of Return on Profit Projects,” Atlantic Refining Co., internal document, 1946.
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43 James Weaver, letters to author, 11 Nov. 1983 and 15 Feb. 1984. Atlas Powder originated as one of two Du Pont operations (Hercules Powder was the second) divested in 1912 under a federal antitrust agreement.
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Their formula is:
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S = scrap value
T = date equipment will be scrapped
Present Value
50 Ibid., chap. 2.
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n = life of investment
solve for r in order to calculate the IRR
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55 Gordon Shillinglaw, professor at Columbia University, Graduate School of Business, interview with author, December 1983. Confirmed in letter to author from John M. Schultz, 10 May 1984. Schultz worked for Horace Hill at Atlantic Refining and was promoted to controller of Atlantic's chemical subsidiary in 1966; he later became controller of the Alaskan pipeline project.
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63 Dutton, Thomas, and Butler, “The History of Progress Functions as a Managerial Technology,” 204–33.
64 Dutton, Thomas, and Butler concluded that social costs can be incurred when applied studies and management practices diverge from theoretical research and empirical studies. Robert S. Kaplan emphasized the importance of cooperation between researchers and industrial managers in the development and adoption of innovative management accounting practices. See Dutton, Thomas, and Butler, “The History of Progress Functions as a Managerial Technology,” 204–33; and Kaplan, Robert S., “The Evolution of Management Accounting,” Accounting review (July 1984): 390–418Google Scholar; Johnson and Kaplan, Relevance Lost, 253–63.
65 Some recent publications on capital budgeting challenges and innovations include Brealey, Richard A. and Myers, Stewart C., Principles of Corporate Finance, 2d ed. (New York, 1984), chap. 34Google Scholar; Hendricks, James A., “Cost Accounting for Factory Automation,” Management Accounting, Dec. 1988, 24–30Google Scholar; Kaplan, “Must CIM Be Justified by Faith Alone?“
66 Hendricks, “Cost Accounting for Factory Automation,” 25.
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