Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-j824f Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-19T11:16:06.712Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

“Exit” vs. “Voice”: Global Sourcing, Multinational Production, and the China Trade Lobby

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 January 2021

Ka Zeng*
Affiliation:
Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Arkansas, 428 Old Main, Fayetteville, AR 72701, United States
*
Corresponding author: Ka Zeng, Email: [email protected]

Abstract

This paper examines the influence of three different forms of global economic engagement on the lobbying behavior of US businesses with regard to trade relations with China: (a) input sourcing; (b) downstream export; and (c) vertical foreign direct investment. It will be hypothesized that firms involved in all three forms of global economic activities should have incentives to lobby over China-related trade issues in order to maintain unimpeded access to sources of supply or markets and to ensure the smooth operation of the entire supply chain. Going further, drawing on the exit-voice framework developed by Albert Hirschman (1972), it will be argued that compared to firms in those industries mainly involved in input sourcing from China, American multinational corporations that have verticalized their production should have even stronger incentives to engage in lobbying activities and “voice” their policy preferences due to their greater “sunk costs” and hence the higher cost of “exit.” Statistical analysis of the China trade-related lobbying activities of US firms between 2006 and 2016 lends substantial support to these conjectures.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of V.K. Aggarwal

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Alfaro, Laura, and Charlton, Andrew. 2009. “Intra-Industry Foreign Direct Investment.” American Economic Review 99 (5): 2096–119.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arkes, Hal Richard, and Blumer, Catherine. 1985. “The Psychology of Sunk Cost.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 35 (1): 124–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Athukorala, Prema-chandra. 2017. “China's Evolving Role in Global Production Networks: Implications for Trump's Trade War.” In China's New Sources of Economic Growth: Human Capital, Innovation and Technological Change, Volume 2, edited by Song, Ligang, Garnaut, Ross, Fan, Cai, and Johnston, Lauren, 363–88. Canberra, Australia: The Australian National University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baldwin, Robert. 1988. “Hysteresis in Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect.” American Economic Review 78 (4): 773–85.Google Scholar
Banga, Rashmi. 2013. “Measuring Value in Global Value Chains.” UNCTAD: Regional Value Chains Background Paper No. RVC-8.Google Scholar
Andrew, Bernard, Bradford Jensen, J., Redding, Stephen, and Schott, Peter. 2007. “Firms in International Trade.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 21 (3): 105–30.Google Scholar
Blanchard, Emily J. 2015. “A Shifting Mandate: International Ownership, Production Fragmentation, and a Case for Deeper Integration under the WTO.” World Trade Review 14 (1): 8799.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blanchard, Emily J., Bown, Chad P., and Johnson, Robert C.. 2017. “Global Supply Chains and Trade Policy.” Working paper. Accessed on 22 December 2019, http://faculty.tuck.dartmouth.edu/images/uploads/faculty/emily-blanchard/BBJ-August2017.pdf.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blanchard, Emily, and Matschke, Xenia. 2015. “US Multinationals and Preferential Market Access.” Review of Economics and Statistics 97 (4): 839–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ciuriak, Dan, Lapham, Beverly, Wolfe, Robert, Collins-Williams, Terry, and Curtis, John. 2015. “Firms in International Trade: Trade Policy Implications of the New Trade Theory.Global Policy 6 (2): 130–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coase, Ronald. 1937. “The Nature of the Firm.Economica 4 (16): 386405.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coate, Stephen, and Morris, Stephen. 1999. “Policy Persistence.” American Economic Review 89 (5): 1327–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davis, Christina L., and Meunier, Sophie. 2011. “Business as Usual? Economic Responses to Political Tensions.American Journal of Political Science 55 (3): 628–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dedrick, Jason, Kraemer, Kenneth L., and Linden, Greg. 2010. “Who Profits from Innovation in Global Value Chains? A Study of the iPod and Notebook PCs.” Industrial and Corporate Change 19 (1): 81116.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dixit, Avinash. 1989. “Hysteresis, Import Penetration, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 104 (2): 205–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Drope, Jeffrey M., and Hansen, Wendy L.. 2006. “Does Firm Size Matter? Analyzing Business Lobbying in the United States.” Business and Politics 8 (2): 117.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dunning, John H., and Lundan, Sarianna. 2008. Multinational Enterprises and the Global Economy. Cheltenham, United Kingdom: Edward Elgar.Google Scholar
Dür, Andreas. 2010. Protection for Exporters: Power and Discrimination in Transatlantic Trade Relations, 1930–2010. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Eckhardt, Jappe. 2013. “EU Unilateral Trade Policy-Making: What Role for Import-Dependent Firms?JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies 51 (6): 9891005.Google Scholar
Eckhardt, Jappe. 2015. Business Lobbying and Trade Governance: The Case of EU-China Relations. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eckhardt, Jappe. 2011. “Firm Lobbying and EU Trade Policymaking: Reflections on the Anti-Dumping Case against Chinese and Vietnamese Shoes (2005–2011).” Journal of World Trade 45 (5): 965–11.Google Scholar
Eckhardt, Jappe, and Poletti, Arlo. 2016. “The Politics of Global Value Chains: Import-dependent Firms and EU–Asia Trade Agreements.Journal of European Public Policy 23 (10): 1543–62.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Eckhardt, Jappe, and Lee, Kelley. 2018. “Global Value Chains, Firm Preferences and the Design Preferential Trade Agreements.” Global Policy 9 (S2): 5866.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Epstein, Edwin. 1969. The Corporation in American Politics. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.Google Scholar
Feng, Yilang. 2018. “Overseas Operation, Regulatory Lobbying, and Exit Threat of U.S. Firms.” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Political Economy Society, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
Garfinkel, Michelle R., and Lee, Jaewoo. 2000. “Political Influence and the Dynamic Consistency of Policy.” American Economic Review 90 (30): 649–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Garland, Howard. 1990. “Throwing Good Money after Bad: The Effect of Sunk Costs on Decisions to Escalate Commitment to an Ongoing project.Journal of Applied Psychology 75 (6): 728–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gawande, Kishore, and Bandyopadhyay, Usree. 2000. “Is Protection for Sale? Evidence on the Grossman-Helpman Theory of Endogenous Protection.” Review of Economics and Statistics 82 (1): 139–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gawande, Kishore, Krishna, Pravin, and Olarreaga, Marcelo. 2012. “Lobbying Competition over Trade Policy.” International Economic Review 53 (1): 115–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gereffi, Gary. 1999. “International Trade and Industrial Upgrading in the Apparel Commodity Chain.Journal of International Economics 48 (1): 3770.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gramer, Robbie, and Johnson, Keith. 2020. “The Great Decoupling.” Foreign Policy, May 14.Google Scholar
Grossman, Sanford J., and Hart, Oliver D.. 1986. “The Costs and Benefits of Ownership: A Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integration.Journal of Political Economy 94 (4): 691719.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hale, Galina, Hobijn, Bart, Nechio, Fernanda, and Wilson, Doris. 2019. “How Much Do We Spend on Imports?” by Galina Hale, Bart Hobijn, Fernanda Nechio, and Doris Wilson, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2019-01, January 7.Google Scholar
Hansen, Wendy L. 1990. “The International Trade Commission and the Politics of Trade Protectionism.” American Political Science Review 84 (1): 2146.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Helpman, Elhanan, Melitz, Marc J., and Yeaple, Stephen R.. 2004. “Export Versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms.American Economic Review 94 (1): 300316.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Helpman, Elhanan. 1984. “A Simple Theory of International Trade with Multinational Corporations.” Journal of Political Economy 92 (3): 451–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hillman, Arye. 1982. “Declining Industries and Political-Support Protectionist Motives.” American Economic Review 72 (5): 1180–87.Google Scholar
Hirschman, Albert O. 1972. Exit, Voice, and Loyalty: Responses to Decline in Firms, Organizations, and States. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Hirschman, Albert O. 1980. “‘Exit, Voice, and Loyalty’: Further Reflections and a Survey of Recent Contributions.The Milbank Quarterly 58 (3): 430–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ikenson, Daniel J. 2018. “Which U.S. Industries Will Bear the Brunt of Trump's China Tariffs?” Cato Institute blogpost, August 23.Google Scholar
Jensen, Bradford, Quinn, Dennis P., and Weymouth, Stephen. 2015. “The Influence of Firm Global Supply Chains and Foreign Currency Undervaluations on U.S. Trade Disputes.” International Organization 69 (4): 914–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Karlsson, Niklas, Juliusson, Ásgeir, Grankvist, Gunne, and Gärling, Tommy. 2002. “Impact of Decision Goal on Escalation.” Acta Psychologica 111 (3): 309322.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Keller, Wolfang, and Yeaple, Stephen R.. 2009. “Gravity in the Weightless Economy.” NBER Working Paper.Google Scholar
Kim, In Song, Milner, Helen V., Bernauer, Thomas, Spilker, Babriele, Osgood, Iain, and Tingley, Dustin. 2019. “Firms’ Preferences over Multidimensional Trade Policies: Global Production Chains, Investment Protection and Dispute Settlement Mechanism.International Studies Quarterly 63 (1): 153–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, Gary, and Zeng, Langche. 2001. “Logistic Regression in Rare Events Data.” Political Analysis 9: 137–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Koopman, Robert, Wang, Zhi, and Wei, Shang-jin. 2012. “Estimating Domestic Content in Exports when Processing Trade is Pervasive.” Journal of Development Economics 99 (1): 178–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kroeber, Arthur. 2019. “From Trade War to Decoupling,” Ideas, Gavekal Dragonomics, July 29.Google Scholar
Lanz, Rainer, and Miroudot, Sébastien. 2011. “Intra-Firm Trade: Patterns, Determinants and Policy Implications.” OECD Trade Policy Papers 114, OECD Publishing, Paris.Google Scholar
Lardy, Nicholas R. 2019. “Are Foreign Companies Really Leaving China in Droves?” China Economic Watch, Peterson Institute for International Economics, September 10.Google Scholar
Lardy, Nicholas R. 2014. Markets over Mao: The Rise of Private Business in China. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.Google Scholar
Levy, Philip I. 1999. “Lobbying and International Cooperation in Tariff Setting.” Journal of International Economics 47: 345–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lu, Sheng. 2019. 2019 Fashion Industry Benchmarking Study. United States Fashion Industry Association, July 9. Accessed on 25 October 2019, http://www.usfashionindustry.com/pdf_files/USFIA-Fashion-Industry-Benchmarking-Study-2019.pdf.Google Scholar
Lu, Sheng. 2014. 2014 Fashion Industry Benchmarking Study. United States Fashion Industry Association, June. Accessed on 25 October 2019, https://www.usfashionindustry.com/pdf_files/USFIA-URI-Fashion-Industry-Benchmarking-Study-2014.pdf.Google Scholar
Maidment, Paul. 2018. “How Western Multinationals Are Responding to the Escalating U.S.-China Trade War.China Business Review, December 18.Google Scholar
Manger, Mark. 2012. “Vertical Trade Specialization and the Political Economy of North-South PTAs.” World Politics 64 (4): 622–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mansfield, Edward D., and Reinhardt, Eric. 2008. “International Institutions and the Volatility of International Trade.” International Organization 62 (4): 621–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marceau, Nicolas, and Smart, Michael. 2003. “Corporate Lobbying and Commitment Failure in Capital Taxation.” American Economic Review 93 (1): 241–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meckling, Jonas, and Hughes, Llewelyn. 2017. “Globalizing Solar: Global Supply Chains and Trade Preferences.International Studies Quarterly 61 (2): 225–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Martina, Michael. 2019. “U.S. Firms in China Say Trade Deal Must Address Unequal Treatment.” Insurance Journal, April 17.Google Scholar
Melitz, Marc J. 2003. “The Impact of Trade on Intra-industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity.” Econometrica 71 (6): 1695–725.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Milner, Helen V. 1989. Resisting Protectionism: Global Industries and the Politics of International Trade. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
OECD. 2019. “Guide to OECD's Trade in Value Added (TiVA) Indicators, 2018 edition.” Accessed 12 August 2020, https://www.oecd.org/sti/ind/tiva/TiVA2018_Indicators_Guide.pdf.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Osgood, Ian. 2018. “Globalizing the Supply Chain: Firm and Industrial Support for US Trade Agreements.International Organization 72 (2): 455–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Osgood, Ian. 2017. “Industrial Fragmentation over Trade: The Role of Variation in Global Engagement.International Studies Quarterly 61 (3): 642–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Osgood, Iain, Tingley, Dustin, Bernauer, Thomas, Kim, In Song, Milner, Helen, and Spilker, G., Gabriele 2017. “The Charmed Life of Superstar Exporters: Survey Evidence on Firms and Trade Policy.Journal of Politics 47 (1): 133–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roach, Stephen. 2014. Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Sattler, Thomas, and Bernauer, Thomas. 2011. “Gravitation or Discrimination? Determinants of Litigation in the World Trade Organization.European Journal of Political Research 50 (2): 143–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schattschneider, E.E. 1935. Politics, Pressures, and the Tariff. New York: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
Scott, John. (2015) The Social Process of Lobbying: Cooperation or Collusion? New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Sekkat, Khalid. 2010. “Economic Policies, Firms’ Entry and Exit and Economic Performance: A Cross Country Analysis.” In Market Dynamics and Productivity in Developing Countries, edited by Sekkat, Khalid, 145–66. New York: Springer.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schwarzenberg, Andres. 2019. “U.S.-China Investment Ties: Overview and Issues for Congress.” Congressional Research Service IF11283, August 28.Google Scholar
Subhayu, Bandyopadhyay, Bharadwaj, Asha, and Roy, Suryadipta. 2018. “Taking a Closer Look at U.S. Exports to China.” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. September 12.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sung, Yun Wing. 1995. The Fifth Dragon: The Emergence of the Pearl River Delta. New York: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
Thaler, Richard H. 1980. “Toward a Positive Theory of Consumer Choice.” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 1 (1): 3960.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thaler, Richard H., and Johnson, Eric J.. 1990. “Gambling with the House Money and Trying to Break Even: The Effects of Prior Outcomes on Risky Choice.” Management Science 36 (6): 643–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Torseka, Mihir. 2017. “Intermediate Goods Imports in Key U.S. Manufacturing Sectors.” United States International Trade Commission. Accessed on 26 May 2020, https://usitc.gov/research_and_analysis/trade_shifts_2017/specialtopic.htm.Google Scholar
UNCTAD. 2016. World Investment Report 2016 Investor Nationality: Policy Challenges. Geneva: United Nations.Google Scholar
Upward, Richard, Wang, Zheng, and Zheng, Jinhai. 2013. “Weighing China's Export Basket: The Domestic Content and Technology Intensity of Chinese Exports.” Journal of Comparative Economics 41 (2): 527–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
U.S.-China Business Council. 2019. “USCBC 2019 Member Survey.” https://www.uschina.org/reports/uscbc-2019-member-survey.Google Scholar
Vernon, Raymond. 1966. “International Trade and International Investment in the Product Cycle.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 80 (2): 190207.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vortherms, Samantha, and Zhang, Jiakun Jack. 2020. “Economic Decoupling or Business as Usual: Assessing the Trade War's Impact on Foreign Invested Enterprises in China.” Paper presented to the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, September.Google Scholar
Vuong, Quang, H. 1989. “Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses.” Econometrica 59 (2): 307–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wang, Zhi, Wei, Shang-Jin, Yu, Xinding, and Zhu, Kunfu. 2018. “Re-examining the Effects of Trading with China on Local Labor Markets: A Supply Chain Perspective.” NBER Working Paper No. 24886.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Whyte, Glen. 1986. “Escalating Commitment to a Course of Action: A Reinterpretation.” Academy of Management Review 11 (2): 311–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yeaple, Stephen R. 2003. “The Role of Skill Endowments in the Structure of US Outward Foreign Direct Investment.” Review of Economics and Statistics 85 (3): 726–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yildirim, Aydin B., Tyson Chatagnier, J., Poletti, Arlo, and De Bièvre, Dirk. 2018. “The Internationalization of Production and the Politics of Compliance in WTO Disputes.” Review of International Organizations 13 (1): 4975.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zeng, Ka. 2004 Trade Threats, Trade Wars: Bargaining, Retaliation, and American Coercive Diplomacy. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zhang, Jakun Jack. 2019 “The Role of Multinationals in the China Trade War.” San Diego, CA: Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the International Political Economy Society.Google Scholar