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Modeling temperature-dependent survival with small datasets: insights from tropical mountain agricultural pests

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 March 2013

Verónica Crespo-Pérez ,
Olivier Dangles ,
Jacques Régnière  and
Isabelle Chuine
Verónica Crespo-Pérez*
Affiliation:
IRD, UR 072, Diversité, Ecologie et Evolution des Insectes Tropicaux, Laboratoire Evolution, Génomes et Spéciation, UPR 9034, CNRS, 91198 Gif-sur – Yvette Cedex, France Université Paris-Sud 11, 91405 Orsay Cedex, France Laboratorio de Entomología, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador, 12 de Octubre, 1076 y Roca, Quito, Ecuador Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, CNRS, 1919 route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier cedex 5, France
Olivier Dangles
Affiliation:
IRD, UR 072, Diversité, Ecologie et Evolution des Insectes Tropicaux, Laboratoire Evolution, Génomes et Spéciation, UPR 9034, CNRS, 91198 Gif-sur – Yvette Cedex, France Université Paris-Sud 11, 91405 Orsay Cedex, France Laboratorio de Entomología, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador, 12 de Octubre, 1076 y Roca, Quito, Ecuador
Jacques Régnière
Affiliation:
Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, PO Box 10380 Stn. Ste Foy, Quebec, QC, CanadaG1V 4C7
Isabelle Chuine
Affiliation:
Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, CNRS, 1919 route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier cedex 5, France
*
*Author for correspondence Phone: (593) 22991700, ext. 1294; Fax: (593) 22991687 E-mail: [email protected]
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Abstract

Many regions are increasingly threatened by agricultural pests but suffer from a lack of data that hampers the development of adequate population dynamics models that could contribute to pest management strategies. Here, we present a new model relating pest survival to temperature and compare its performance with two published models. We were particularly interested in their ability to simulate the deleterious effect of extreme temperatures even when adjusted to datasets that did not include extreme temperature conditions. We adjusted the models to survival data of three species of potato tuber moth (PTM), some major pests in the Tropical Andes. To evaluate model performance, we considered both goodness-of-fit and robustness. The latter consisted in evaluating their ability to predict the actual altitudinal limits of the species in the Ecuadorian Andes. We found that even though our model did not always provide the best fit to data, it predicted extreme temperature mortality and altitudinal limits accurately and better than the other two models. Our study shows that the ability to accurately represent the physiological limits of species is important to provide robust predictions of invasive pests' potential distribution, particularly in places where temperatures approach lethal extremes. The value of our model lies in its ability to simulate accurate thermal tolerance curves even with small datasets, which is useful in places where adequate pest management is urgent but data are scarce.

Keywords

Agricultural pestsPhthorimaea operculellapotato tuber mothSymmetrischema tangoliasTecia solanivoratemperature-related survival
Type
Research Paper
Information
Bulletin of Entomological Research , Volume 103 , Issue 3 , June 2013 , pp. 336 - 343
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2013

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Supplementary material: File

Crespo-Pérez Supplementary Material

Lists the parameters and their values of the Sharpe and DeMichel equation (modified by Schoolfield et al. 1981) adjusted to development time data of the three immature stages of the three species of potato tuber moth

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Supplementary material: File

Crespo-Pérez Supplementary Material

Lists the parameters and their values of the three survival rate equations adjusted to survival rate data of the three immature stages of the three species of potato tuber moth

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Supplementary material: File

Crespo-Pérez Supplementary Material

Consists on a figure showing the relationship between observed abundance and predicted survival of the three species of potato tuber moth at 50 sites in the Ecuadorian Andes

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