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Mortality estimates from ovarian age distributions of the tsetse fly Glossina pallidipes Austen sampled in Zimbabwe suggest the need for new analytical approaches

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 March 2015

J.W. Hargrove  and
S.F. Ackley
J.W. Hargrove*
Affiliation:
SACEMA, University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch, South Africa
S.F. Ackley
Affiliation:
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA
*
*Author for correspondence Phone: (+27) 21 808 2589 Fax: (+27) 21 808 2586 E-mail: [email protected]
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Abstract

Mortality estimates are central to understanding tsetse fly population dynamics, but are difficult to acquire from wild populations. They can be obtained from age distribution data but, with limited data, it is unclear whether the assumptions required to make the estimates are satisfied and, if not, how violations affect the estimates. We evaluate the assumptions required for existing mortality estimation techniques using long-term longitudinal ovarian dissection data from 144,106 female tsetse, Glossina pallidipes Austen, captured in Zimbabwe between 1988 and 1999. At the end of the hot-dry season each year, mean ovarian ages peaked, and maximum-likelihood mortality estimates declined to low levels, contrary to mark-recapture estimates, suggesting violations of the assumptions underlying the estimation technique. We demonstrate that age distributions are seldom stable for G. pallidipes at our study site, and hypothesize that this is a consequence of a disproportionate increase in the mortality of pupae and young adults at the hottest times of the year. Assumptions of age-independent mortality and capture probability are also violated, the latter bias varying with capture method and with pregnancy and nutritional status. As a consequence, mortality estimates obtained from ovarian dissection data are unreliable. To overcome these problems we suggest simulating female tsetse populations, using dynamical modelling techniques that make no assumptions about the stability of the age distribution.

Keywords

Glossina pallidipestsetsemortality estimatesovarian dissectionstable age distribution
Type
Research Papers
Information
Bulletin of Entomological Research , Volume 105 , Issue 3 , June 2015 , pp. 294 - 304
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Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2015 

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