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Considering climate change impact on the global potential geographical distribution of the invasive Argentine ant and little fire ant

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 May 2024

Tong Li Open the ORCID record for Tong Li [Opens in a new window] ,
Pei Jiang ,
Jingyuan Liu ,
Jingquan Zhu ,
Shouqi Zhao ,
Zhihong Li ,
Mina Zhong ,
Chen Ma  and
Yujia Qin Open the ORCID record for Yujia Qin [Opens in a new window]
Tong Li
Affiliation:
Department of Plant Biosecurity, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Management for Plant Quarantine Pests of MARA, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing, P. R. China
Pei Jiang
Affiliation:
National Agro-tech Extension and Service Center, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing, 100125, China
Jingyuan Liu
Affiliation:
Center for Animal, Plant and Food Inspection and Quarantine of Shanghai Customs District, Shanghai, 200135, China
Jingquan Zhu
Affiliation:
National Agro-tech Extension and Service Center, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing, 100125, China
Shouqi Zhao
Affiliation:
National Agro-tech Extension and Service Center, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing, 100125, China
Zhihong Li
Affiliation:
Department of Plant Biosecurity, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Management for Plant Quarantine Pests of MARA, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing, P. R. China
Mina Zhong
Affiliation:
Forest Pest Control and Quarantine Station of Xining City, Qinghai, 810008, China
Chen Ma*
Affiliation:
National Agro-tech Extension and Service Center, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing, 100125, China
Yujia Qin*
Affiliation:
Department of Plant Biosecurity, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Management for Plant Quarantine Pests of MARA, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing, P. R. China
*
Corresponding author: Yujia Qin; Email: [email protected]; Chen Ma; Email: [email protected]
Corresponding author: Yujia Qin; Email: [email protected]; Chen Ma; Email: [email protected]
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Abstract

The Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) and the little fire ant (Wasmannia auropunctata) are among the top 100 invasive alien species globally, causing significant ecological and economic harm. Therefore, it is crucial to study their potential geographic distribution worldwide. This study aimed to predict their global distribution under current and future climate conditions. We used distribution data from various sources, including CABI, GBIF, and PIAKey, and key climate variables selected from 19 environmental factors to model their potential geographic distribution using MaxEnt. The AUC values were 0.925 and 0.937 for L. humile and W. auropunctata, respectively, indicating good predictive performance. Suitable areas for L. humile were mainly in southern North America, northern South America, Europe, central Asia, southern Oceania, and parts of Africa, while W. auropunctata suitable areas were mostly in southern North America, most of South America, a small part of Europe, southern Asia, central Africa, and some parts of Oceania. Under climate change scenario, suitable areas for L. humile increased, while highly suitable areas for W. auropunctata decreased. The top four countries with the largest areas of overlapping suitable habitat under current climate were Brazil, China, Australia, and Argentina, while under future SSP585 climate scenario, the top four countries were Brazil, China, Indonesia, and Argentina. Some countries, such as Estonia and Finland, will see an overlapping adaptation area under climate change. In conclusion, this study provides insight into controlling the spread and harm of L. humile and W. auropunctata.

Keywords

climate changeLinepithema humileMaxEntPotential geographical distributionWasmannia auropunctata
Type
Research Paper
Information
Bulletin of Entomological Research , Volume 114 , Issue 3 , June 2024 , pp. 454 - 465
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Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Cambridge University Press

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