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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 02 September 2010
The arguments presented in this paper strongly support the stated intention of the European Commission that farm product prices must be set more competitively with the world market. Indeed, they go further. The only long-term sustainable agricultural policy for the European Community is to let farm products compete unsupported on a free-trade world market (the ultimate objective of the GATT negotiations). This does not deny either justification or need for some form of compensation to the present industry for the loss of support. However, the argument does clearly require that such compensation should be ‘neutral’ — that it should not distort or alter production and allocation decisions from those which would be taken in the absence of such compensation. The only genuinely neutral compensation would be single lump sum capital transfer through a government bond issue. However, failing this, definitely limited annual support payments independent of current production decisions and relating to past production quantities less than those which would be produced under uncompensated free-trade would be ‘quasi neutral’, and might as a result be acceptable as non-distorting under GATT. In this sense, the price reduction proposals currently being discussed are a definite step in the right direction, especially for cereals.
Nevertheless, agriculture faces a continued period of difficult adjustment, especially difficult in the hill and upland areas. As far as conventional agriculture is concerned, there is little prospect of these areas being able to compete directly in the final consumer markets at world price competitive levels. Their comparative advantage will lie with the production of breeding and store animals, to be finished on grass or grain in more productive locations. Fewer people will be able to earn a full-time living from agriculture in these areas and other things being equal, hill and upland farms seem likely to become even more extensive ranching operations than is the case at present. However, other things are not equal. It seems likely that society will continue to value the non-productive elements of hill and upland agriculture, which in many cases are seen as adding to the amenity and landscape qualities of these regions. Since the demand for these features will grow, ways will be found to supplement farming incomes in these areas (especially) in order to conserve the landscape, wildlife and amenity characteristics.