¹ See, for example, Mughan, A., ‘Party Leaders and Presidentialism in the 1992 Election: A Post War Perspective’, in Denver, D., Norris, P., Railings, C. and Broughton, D., eds, British Elections and Parties Yearbook 1993 (Hemel Hempstead, Herts: Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1993), pp. 193–204.Google Scholar

² For example, Brown, J. A., ‘The Major Effect: Changes in Party Leadership and Party Popularity’, Parliamentary Affairs (1993), 549–64.Google Scholar

³ Denver, D., Elections and Voting Behaviour in Britain, 2nd edn (Hemel Hempstead, Herts: Harvester Wheatsheaf, Contemporary Political Studies, 1994).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

⁴ Brown, , ‘The Major Effect: Changes in Party Leadership and Party Popularity’.Google Scholar

⁵ Brown, , ‘The Major Effect: Changes in Party Leadership and Party Popularity’, p. 561.Google Scholar

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⁷ Crewe, and King, , ‘Did Major Win? Did Kinnock Lose?’ p. 144.Google Scholar

⁸ Crewe, and King, , ‘Did Major Win? Did Kinnock Lose?’ p. 127.Google Scholar

⁹ Crewe, and King, , ‘Did Major Win? Did Kinnock Lose?’ p. 125.Google Scholar

¹⁰ Bean, C. and Mughan, A., ‘Leadership Effects in Parliamentary Elections in Australia and Britain’, American Political Science Review, 83 (1989), 1165–80, at p. 1176.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

¹¹ Although there are similarities, the approach is different to the two strategies outlined in Crewe and King – the improved prediction strategy and the thought experiment strategy.

¹² Used, for example, by Shanks, J. M. and Miller, W. E., ‘Partisanship, Policy and Performance: The Reagan Legacy in the 1988 Election’, British Journal of Political Science, 21) (1991), 129–97CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Stewart, M. C. and Clarke, H. D., ‘The (Un)Importance of Party Leaders: Leader Image and Party Choice in the 1987 British Election’, Journal of Politics, 54 (1992), 447–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

¹³ Crewe, and King, , ‘Did Major Win? Did Kinnock Lose?’Google Scholar; and Bean, and Mughan, , ‘Leadership Effects in Parliamentary Elections in Australia and Britain’.Google Scholar

¹⁴ This would have been possible in this article.

¹⁵ See, for example, Mitchell, W. C. and Munger, M. C., ‘Doing Well While Intending Good: Cases in Political Exploitation’, Journal of Theoretical Politics, 5 (1993), 317–48CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Holcombe, R. G., The Economic Foundations of Government (New York: New York University Press, 1994).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

¹⁶ Jones, B., Political Issues in Britain Today, 4th edn (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1994).Google Scholar

¹⁷ The figures in parentheses in Equation (2) represent standard errors and the chi-squared figure relates to the likelihood ratio test for the significance of the regression as a whole. Chi-squared (10) reflects the insignificance, at the 5 per cent level, of a vector of long-term variables: age; age squared; educational age; gender; owner of a car; owner of a phone; owner of a home; an occupational business class variable (constructed by Gallup) and two regional dummy variables (one for Wales and one for Scotland).

¹⁸ Bean, and Mughan, , ‘Leadership Effects in Parliamentary Elections in Australia and Britain’, p. 1168.Google Scholar

¹⁹ Bean, and Mughan, , ‘Leadership Effects in Parliamentary Elections in Australia and Britain’, p. 1175.Google Scholar

²⁰ Maddala, G. S., Limited Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1983).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

²¹ Maddala, , Limited Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics.Google Scholar

²² This can be illustrated by reference to column 3 of their Table 4. Someone who rated Michael Foot positively on all characteristics but did not rate Thatcher would have a ‘probability’ of voting Conservative of – 0.72. This may be exaggerated due to the non-reporting of a positive constant term. If such a constant term were sufficient to transform this into a non-negative number then the probability of someone voting Conservative who rated Thatcher positively on all characteristics, but did not rate Foot, would substantially exceed one. Clearly, the predicted values from these coefficients cannot be regarded as probabilities.

²³ See, for example, Hudson, J., ‘The Relationship between Government Popularity and Approval for the Government's Record in the United Kingdom’, British Journal of Political Science, 15 (1985), 165–86CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Hibbs, D. A. Jr, ‘Economic Outcomes and Political Support for British Governments among Occupational Classes: A Dynamic Analysis’, American Political Science Review, 76 (1982), 259–84CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Sanders, D., Ward, H. and Marsh, D., ‘Government Popularity and the Falklands War: A Reassessment’, British Journal of Political Science, 17 (1987), 281–313.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

²⁴ Crewe, and King, , ‘Did Major Win? Did Kinnock Lose?’Google Scholar

²⁵ The figures in parenthesis in Equation (3) are again standard errors and the right-hand side variables are defined as in Table 1. Chi-squared (10) reflects the insignificance, at the 10 per cent level, of a vector of long-term variables: age; age squared; educational age; gender; owner of a car; owner of a phone; owner of a home; an occupational business class variable (constructed by Gallup) and two regional dummy variables (one for Wales and one for Scotland).

²⁶ The Monte Carlo algorithm was originally written in LIMDEP but for reasons of expediency was subsequently transferred to RATS. A copy of either program is available from the authors on request.

²⁷ A discussion of two-stage estimation techniques within a limited dependent variable context and their properties can be found in Maddala, , Limited Dependent and Qualitative Variables in EconometricsGoogle Scholar; Mallar, C. D., ‘The Estimation of Simultaneous Probability Models’, Econometrica, 45 (1977), 1717–22CrossRefGoogle Scholar, was the first to use the two-stage approach for two discrete variables.

²⁸ This was used as a proxy for income.

²⁹ Crewe, and King, , ‘Did Major Win? Did Kinnock Lose?’Google Scholar