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Portfolio Allocation and the Vote of No Confidence*
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 29 November 2012
Abstract
There is a contradiction between theory and empirics with respect to portfolio allocation in parliamentary democracies. While the canonical model of legislative bargaining predicts the existence of a ‘formateur bonus’, empirical studies show that portfolios are allocated in a manner that favours smaller parties. This article argues that the difference between the empirical pattern and the theoretical predictions can be explained by the vote of no confidence, which provides an incentive for large formateur parties to overcompensate smaller coalition partners in exchange for their sustained support over time. This argument is tested by exploiting variations in the presence of no confidence votes across national and regional levels in France. As predicted, we find that larger formateur parties receive a greater share of portfolios if the vote of no confidence is absent than if it is present.
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Footnotes
Associate Professor, Pennsylvania State University, Department of Political Science (email: [email protected]); J.D. Candidate, Florida State University College of Law ([email protected]). We thank Matt Golder, Alec Hargreaves, Michael Laver and Paul Warwick for their helpful comments on this article. The data and all computer code necessary to replicate the results and figures in this analysis are available at https://files.nyu.edu/sln202/public/ and http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1017/S0007123412000580. All statistical models were estimated using Stata 11.
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