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⁴⁴ Goemans, Gleditsch and Chiozza, ‘Introducing Archigos’. Note that we code the effect of FIRC over a five-year window, and therefore we also looked at FIRCs in the 1915–19 period. We included two other relevant FIRCs from this period, Greece 1917 and Albania 1916. We did not include the 1917 or 1918 Belgium FIRCs as indicated by Archigos, as they concerned change in who governed the occupied territories of Belgium, though the Belgian government was still recognized as the national leadership.

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⁴⁶ Lo et al., ‘Ensuring Peace’. There are a very small handful of cases in which a state lost an interstate war, did not immediately suffer an FIRC, but then suffered an FIRC soon after (within the next five years). France in the early 1940s is one example. If the FIRC war and FIRC non-war variables are recoded such that the FIRC war variable is coded 1 if a state suffers an FIRC for any reason during the five years following a loss in an interstate war, the results do not change.

⁴⁷ Enterline and Greig, ‘Beacons of Hope?’ The data from John Owen’s article, ‘The Foreign Imposition of Domestic Institutions’, include both successful and unsuccessful attempts at the foreign imposition of institutions, and hence inappropriate for use here.

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⁶³ An interaction of Ethnic Fractionalization × Democracy is statistically significant, but its inclusion does not change the results on the FIRC variables. It does make the Ethnic Fractionalization variable insignificant, and the Democracy variable significant, though.

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