Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-dlnhk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-26T04:53:34.943Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Arms versus Democratic Allies

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 November 2016

Matthew Digiuseppe  and
Paul Poast
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

In theory, states can gain security by acquiring internal arms or external allies. Yet the empirical literature offers mixed findings: some studies find arms and allies to be substitutes, while others find them to be complements. This article contends that these conflicting findings are due to scholars failing to consider how regime type influences the choice between arms and allies. Since democracies are highly credible allies, states that form alliances with democracies can confidently reduce their internal arms. This is not the case when states form alliances with non-democracies. This study evaluates the argument using data on military expenditures and defense pacts from 1950 to 2001. Taking steps to account for the potentially endogenous relationship between arms and allies, it finds that democratic alliances are associated with lower levels of military spending.

Keywords

alliancesmilitary spendingdomestic politics of international relationsarms versus allies
Type
Articles
Information
British Journal of Political Science , Volume 48 , Issue 4 , October 2018 , pp. 981 - 1003
Copyright
© Cambridge University Press 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

Department of Political Science, University of Mississippi (email: [email protected]); Department of Political Science, University of Chicago (email: [email protected]). Data replication sets are available at http://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/BJPolS and online appendices are available at http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1017/S0007123416000247.

References

Allen, Michael A., and DiGiuseppe, Matthew. 2013. Tightening the Belt: Sovereign Debt and Alliance Formation. International Studies Quarterly 57 (4):647–659.Google Scholar
Altfeld, Michael. 1984. The Decision to Ally. Western Political Quarterly 37 (4):523–544.Google Scholar
Barnett, Michael N., and Levy, Jack S.. 1991. Domestic Sources of Alliances and Alignment: The Case of Egypt, 1962–73. International Organization 45 (3):369–395.Google Scholar
Beck, Nathaniel, and Katz, Jonathan. 2011. Modeling Dynamics in Time-Series-Cross-Sectional Political Economy Data. Annual Review of Political Science 14:331–352.Google Scholar
Bennett, Scott D. 1997. Democracy, Regime Change, and Rivalry Termination. International Interactions 22 (4):369–397.Google Scholar
Benson, Brett V., Meirowitz, Adam, and Ramsay, Kristopher W.. 2014. Inducing Deterrence Through Moral Hazard in Alliance Contracts. Journal of Conflict Resolution 58 (2):307–335.Google Scholar
Boef, Suzanna D., and Keele, Luke. 2008. Taking Time Seriously. American Journal of Political Science 52 (1):184–200.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Smith, Alastair, Siverson, Randolph M., and Morrow, James D.. 2003. The Logic of Political Survival. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Morrow, James D., Siverson, Randolph M., and Smith, Alastair. 1999. An Institutional Explanation of the Democratic Peace. The American Political Science Review 93 (4):791–807.Google Scholar
Chen, Baizhu, Feng, Yi, and Masroori, Cyrus. 1996. Collective Action in the Middle East? A Study of Free-Ride in Defense. Journal of Peace Research 33 (3):323–339.Google Scholar
Clare, Joe. 2013. The Deterrent Value of Democratic Allies. International Studies Quarterly 57:545–555.Google Scholar
Conybeare, John A. C. 1992. A Portfolio Diversification Model of Alliances. Journal of Conflict Resolution 36 (1):53–85.Google Scholar
Conybeare, John A. C. 1994. Arms Versus Allies: The Capital Structure of Military Enterprise. Journal of Conflict Resolution 38 (2):215–235.Google Scholar
Dai, Xinyuan. 2005. Why Comply? The Domestic Constituency Mechanism. International Organization 59 (2):363–398.Google Scholar
Diehl, Paul F. 1994. Substitutes or Complements?: The Effects of Alliances on Military Spending in Major Power Rivalries. International Interactions 19 (3):159–176.Google Scholar
Fordham, Benjamin, and Poast, Paul. Forthcoming. All Alliances are Multilateral: Rethinking Alliance Formation. Journal of Conflict Resolution.Google Scholar
Fordham, Benjamin, and Walker, Thomas. 2005. Kantian Liberalism, Regime Type, and Military Resource Allocation: Do Democracies Spend Less? International Studies Quarterly 4 (1):141–157.Google Scholar
Gartzke, Erik, and Weisiger, Alex. 2013. Fading Friendships: Alliances, Affinities and the Activation of International Identities. British Journal of Political Science 43 (1):25–52.Google Scholar
Gartzke, Erik, and Gleditsch, Kristian S.. 2004. Why Democracies May Actually be Less Reliable Allies. American Journal of Political Science 48 (4):775–795.Google Scholar
Gaubatz, Kurt T. 1996. Democratic States and Commitment in International Relations. International Organization 50 (1):109–139.Google Scholar
Gibler, Douglas. 2008. The Costs of Reneging: Reputation and Alliance Formation. Journal of Conflict Resolution 52 (3):426–454.Google Scholar
Gibler, Douglas, and Wolford, Scott. 2006. Alliances, Then Democracy: An Examination of the Relationship Between Regime Type and Alliance Formation. Journal of Conflict Resolution 50 (1):129–153.Google Scholar
Goldsmith, Benjamin. 2007. Defense Effort and Institutional Theories of Democratic Peace and Victory: Why Try Harder? Security Studies 16 (2):189–222.Google Scholar
Greene, William H. 2000. Econometric Analysis, 4th edition, New York: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
Guzman, Andrew T. 2009. How International Law Works: A Response to Commentators. International Theory 1 (2):335–343.Google Scholar
Hart, Robert A. Jr., and Reed, William. 1999. Selection Effects and Dispute Escalation: Democracy and Status Quo Evaluations. International Interactions 25 (3):243–263.Google Scholar
Horowitz, Michael C., Simpson, Erin M., and Stam, Alan C.. 2011. Domestic Institutions and Wartime Casualties. International Studies Quarterly 55 (4):909–936.Google Scholar
Horowitz, Michael C., Poast, Paul, and Stam, Alan C.. Forthcoming. Domestic Signaling of Commitment Credibility: Military Recruitment and Alliance Formation. Journal of Conflict Resolution.Google Scholar
Johnson, Jesse, Leeds, Brett Ashley, and Wu, Ahra. 2015. Capability, Credibility, and the Extended General Deterrence. International Interactions 41 (2):309–336.Google Scholar
Keele, Luke, and Kelly, Nathan J.. 2006. Dynamic Models for Dynamic Theories: The Ins and Outs of Lagged Dependent Variables. Political Analysis 14:186–205.Google Scholar
Keshk, Omar, Pollins, Brian M., and Reuveny, Raphael. 2004. Trade Still Follows the Flag: The Primacy of Politics in a Simultaneous Model of Interdependence and Armed Conflict. Journal of Politics 66 (4):1155–1179.Google Scholar
Kimball, Anessa L. 2010. Political Survival, Policy Distribution, and Alliance Formation. Journal of Peace Research 47 (4):407–419.Google Scholar
Koremenos, Barbara, Lipson, Charles, and Snidal, Duncan. 2001. The Rational Design of International Institutions. International Organization 55 (4):761–799.Google Scholar
Koyck, Leendert M. 1954. Distributed Lags and Investment Analysis, Vol. 4. Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company.Google Scholar
Kydd, Andrew. 2009. Reputation and Cooperation: Guzman on International Law. International Theory 1 (2):295–305.Google Scholar
Lai, Brian, and Reiter, Dan. 2000. Democracy, Political Similarity, and International Alliances, 1816–1992. Journal of Conflict Resolution 44 (2):203–227.Google Scholar
Leeds, Brett Ashley. 1999. Domestic Political Institutions, Credible Commitments, and International Cooperation. American Journal of Political Science 43 (4):979–1002.Google Scholar
Leeds, Brett Ashley. 2003. Alliance Reliability in Times of War: Explaining State Decisions to Violate Treaties. International Organization 57 (4):801–827.Google Scholar
Leeds, Brett Ashley, and Savun, Burcu. 2007. Terminating Alliances: Why do States Abrogate Agreements? Journal of Politics 69 (4):1118–1132.Google Scholar
Leeds, Brett Ashley, Ritter, Jeffrey M., Mitchell, Sara L., and Long, Andrew G.. 2002. Alliance Treaty Obligations and Provisions, 1815–1944. International Interactions 28 (3):237–260.Google Scholar
Leeds, Brett Ashley, Mattes, Michaela, and Vogel, Jeremy S.. 2009. Interests, Institutions, and the Reliability of International Commitments. American Journal of Political Science 53 (2):461–476.Google Scholar
Leeds, Brett Ashley, and Anac, Sezi. 2005. Alliance Institutionalization and Alliance Performance. International Interactions 31 (1):183–202.Google Scholar
Levendusky, Matthew S., and Horowitz, Michael C.. 2012. When Backing Down is the Right Decision: Partisanship, New Information, and Audience Costs. The Journal of Politics 74 (2):323–338.Google Scholar
Levy, Jack S., McKoy, Michael K., Poast, Paul, and PR Wallace, Geoffrey. 2015. Backing Out or Backing In? Commitment and Consistency in Audience Costs Theory. American Journal of Political Science 59 (4):988–1001.Google Scholar
Marshall, Monty G., Jaggers, Keith, and Gurr, Ted. 2010. Polity IV Project: Data Users Manual. Available at http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/p4manualv2013.pdf, accessed 18 May 2016.Google Scholar
Martin, Lisa L. 2000. Democratic Commitments: Legislatures and International Cooperation. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Mattes, Michaela. 2012a. Democratic Reliability, Precommitment of Successor Governments, and the Choice of Alliance Commitment. International Organization 66 (1):153–172.Google Scholar
Mattes, Michaela. 2012b. Reputation, Symmetry, and Alliance Design. International Organization 66 (4):679–707.Google Scholar
Mattes, Michaela, Leeds, Brett Ashley, and Carroll, Royce. 2015. Leadership Turnover and Foreign Policy Change: Societal Interests, Domestic Institutions, and Voting in the United Nations. International Studies Quarterly 59 (2):280–290.Google Scholar
McGillivray, Fiona, and Smith, Alastair. 2004. The Impact of Leadership Turnover on Trading Relations Between States. International Organization 58 (3):567–600.Google Scholar
McGillivray, Fiona, and Smith, Alastair. 2008. Punishing the Prince: A Theory of Interstate Relations, Political Institutions, and Leader Change. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Michon, Georges. 1929. The Franco-Russian Alliance, 1891–1917. Sydney: Allen & Unwin.Google Scholar
Morgan, T. Clifton, and Palmer, Glenn. 2006. A Theory of Foreign Policy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Morgenthau, Hans. 1948. Politics Among Nations. The Struggle for Power and Peace. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.Google Scholar
Morrow, James D. 1991. Alliances and Asymmetry: An Alternative to the Capability Aggregation Model of Alliances. American Journal of Political Science 35 (4):904–933.Google Scholar
Morrow, James D. 1993. Arms Versus Allies: Trade-Offs in the Search for Security. International Organization 47 (2):207–233.Google Scholar
Morrow, James D. 1994. Alliances, Credibility, and Peacetime Costs. Journal of Conflict Resolution 38 (2):270–297.Google Scholar
Most, Benjamin A., and Siverson, Randolph M.. 1987. Substituting Arms and Alliances, 1870-1914: An Exploration in Comparative Foreign Policy. In New Directions in the Study of Foreign Policy, edited by C. F. Hermann, C. W. Kegley and J. Rosenau. Boston, MA: Allen and Unwin.Google Scholar
Murdie, Amanda, and Peksen, Dursun. 2014. The Impact of Human Rights INGO Shaming on Humanitarian Intervention. Journal of Politics 76 (1):215–228.Google Scholar
Nordhaus, William, Oneal, John R., and Russett, Bruce. 2012. The Effects of International Security Environment on National Military Expenditures: A Multi-Country Study. International Organization 66 (3):491–513.Google Scholar
Nordhaus, William, and Tobin, James. 1972. Is Growth Obsolete? In Economic Research: Retrospect and Prospect Vol 5: Economic Growth, edited by William Nordhaus and James Tobin, 1–80. Cambridge, MA: NBER.Google Scholar
Olson, Mancur, and Zeckhauser, Richard. 1966. An Economic Theory of Alliances. The Review of Economics and Statistics 48 (3):266–279.Google Scholar
Plumper, Thomas, and Neumayer, Eric. 2015. Free-Riding in Alliances: Testing an Old Theory with a New Method. Conflict Management and Peace Science 32 (3):247–268.Google Scholar
Poast, Paul. 2012. Does Issue Linkage Work? Evidence from European Alliance Negotiations, 1860 to 1945. International Organization 66 (2):277–310.Google Scholar
Poast, Paul. 2013. Can Issue Linkage Improve Treaty Credibility? Buffer State Alliances as a Hard Case. Journal of Conflict Resolution 57 (5):739–764.Google Scholar
Reed, William. 1997. Alliance Duration and Democracy: An Extension and Cross-Validation of ‘Democratic States and Commitment in International Relations’. American Journal of Political Science 41 (3):1072–1078.Google Scholar
Reiter, Dani, Stam, Alan, and Downes, Alexander B.. 2009. Another Skirmish in the Battle over Democracies and War. International Security 34 (2):194–204.Google Scholar
Reiter, Dani, and Stam, Alan C.. 2002. Democracies at War. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Roodman, Dani. 2011. Estimating Fully Observed Recursive Mixed-Process Models with Cmp. Stata Journal 11 (3):159–206.Google Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth A. 2001. Democracy and Coercive Diplomacy, Vol. 76. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth A., and Weingast, Barry. 2003. The Democratic Advantage: The Institutional Sources of International Competition. International Organization 57 (1):3–42.Google Scholar
Smith, Alastair. 1998. International Crises and Domestic Politics. American Political Science Review 92 (3):623–638.Google Scholar
Snyder, Glenn H. 1984. The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics. World Politics 36 (4):461–495.Google Scholar
Sorokin, Gerald L. 1994. Arms, Alliances, and Security Tradeoffs in Enduring Rivalries. International Studies Quarterly 38:421–446.Google Scholar
Thompson, William R. 2001. Identifying Rivals and Rivalries in World Politics. International Studies Quarterly 45 (4):557–586.Google Scholar
Weeks, Jessica. 2008. Autocratic Audience Costs: Regime Type and Signaling Resolve. International Organization 62 (1):35–64.Google Scholar
Williams, Laron K., and Whitten, Guy D.. 2012. But Wait, There’s More! Maximizing Substantive Inferences from TSCS Models. Journal of Politics 74 (3):685–693.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Digiuseppe and Poast Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/HJUKKO
Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Digiuseppe and Poast supplementary material

Appendix

Download Digiuseppe and Poast supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 185.9 KB