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⁵ Archie Brown, in particular, deserves credit for being among the first to pick up clues that a major reform was in the offing. See for example: ‘Andropov: Discipline and Reform’, Problems of Communism (01/02 1983), 18–31Google Scholar; ‘Gorbachev: New Man in the Kremlin’, Problems of Communism (05/06 1985), 1–23Google Scholar; ‘Can Gorbachev Make a Difference?’ Detente, 3 (05 1985)Google Scholar; ‘Change in the USSR’, Foreign Affairs (Summer 1986), 1048–65Google Scholar; ‘Change in the USSR: Developments and Prospects’, World Policy Journal, 4 (1986–1987), 55–87Google Scholar; ‘The Soviet Leadership and the Struggle for Political Reform’, The Harriman Institute Forum, 1, No. 4 (04 1988), 1–8Google Scholar. However, Professor Brown was severely taken to task in a series of readers' letters published in the Times Literary Supplement between 15 May and 10 July 1987. In the light of subsequent events they make interesting reading.

⁶ See Part I of the new draft of the CPSU programme on ‘The Transition from Capitalism to Socialism and Communism as the Main Event of the Present Epoch’, Kommunist, 16 (1985), 5–16.Google Scholar

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¹² The concept is developed by Zinoviev, Aleksandr, The Reality of Communism (London: Gollancz, 1984).Google Scholar

¹³ This entire line of argument was surveyed during the course of an interesting conference held at Boston University in November 1988. In general, Gorbachev was seen by many of the delegates as the product of an ‘anti-drift’ coalition, though at each successive stage of the reform process there had been an escalation of radicalism and a shift from the strictly economic to the political domain. Summing up, General William Odom, the doyen of American observers of the Soviet military-industrial complex, still saw the reform process as essentially one of revitalization rather than of fundamental systemic change. See Teague, Elizabeth, Liberty, Radio, Report on the USSR, 13 01 1989, pp. 9–11.Google Scholar

¹⁴ On the face of it Soviet GNP growth for 1986–88 according to official figures was marginally better than for 1981–85: 3.7 per cent compared with 3.5 per cent. But appearances are deceptive. Shortages of food and other consumer goods in the shops have worsened. Growth rates are distorted by inflationary pressures fuelled by a large and increasing budget deficit (about 12 per cent of GNP in 1989, taking all short-term and long-term government debt into account). In the first six months of 1989, national income grew at an annual average rate of 2.5 per cent over the equivalent period in 1988, compared with a planned figure of 6.0 per cent. Most significantly, as an indication that the economy is out of control, labour productivity grew by only 2.8 per cent, while wages and salaries increased by 8.0 per cent. See Gorbachev's Economic Programme: Problems Emerge, a report by the CIA and DIA to the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress, 13 04 1988Google Scholar; Tedstrom, John, Liberty, Radio, Report on the USSR, 18 08 1989, pp. 3–6.Google Scholar

¹⁵ The degree of political and popular control over the military is indicated by (a) the very tough grilling of General Dmitrii Yazov by members of the Supreme Soviet in July 1989 before his confirmation as Minister of Defence, BBC: Summary of World Broadcasts, Part I, USSR, 5–6 07 1989Google Scholar; (b) the fact that the representation of the military on the Central Committee of the party has declined from 7.5 per cent in 1986 to 4.4 per cent in 1989, after the April ‘purge’ of members (Izvestiya TsK KPSS, No. 2, 1989)Google Scholar; (c) the plurality of influences on security policy reflected not only in a major reorientation of military doctrine, but also in vigorous debates about the creation of a professional as opposed to a conscript army (see the roundtable discussion on ‘The Army and Society’ in Vek xx i Mir, No. 9, 1988).Google Scholar

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¹⁹ Rutland, Peter, The Myth of the Plan (London: Hutchinson, 1985)Google Scholar. See especially chap. 2, ‘Market and Plan: Economic Debates’, pp. 24–48Google Scholar, for a succinct review of the theoretical arguments.

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²⁷ I am grateful to my colleague Philip Hanson for drawing my attention to this point, which arose in discussions which he has had with senior economic officiais in Moscow.

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²⁹ Expressing impatience at the growing vehemence of the debate within the intelligentsia, Gorbachev has referred to the ‘omnivorousness’ of the contestants, identifying a group who yearn for ‘the good old days’ when the country was run with ‘a firm hand’. See Pravda, 8 01 1989.Google Scholar

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³³ Archie Brown's seminal contribution has already been referred to (fn. 5). In my Inaugural Lecture, delivered in December 1986, I predicted that a major political reform would occur, though with some caution and trepidation. See Amann, Ronald, The Empire Strikes Back, An Inaugural Lecture delivered in the University of Birmingham, 9 12 1986Google Scholar (subsequently republished in The World Today, 43 (1987), 132–7).Google Scholar

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⁴⁰ The new Law on Elections was published in Izvestiya, 4 12 1988.Google Scholar

⁴¹ The philosophical discussion is surveyed by Kux, E., ‘Contradictions in State Socialism’, Problems of Communism, 33 (12 1984), 1–27Google Scholar. The key Soviet contributions to the debate are: Butenko, A. P., ‘Contradictions in the Development of Socialism as a Social System’, Voprosy Filosofii, 10 (1982), 16–29Google Scholar; ‘Once More About the Contradictions of Socialism’, Voprosy Filosofii, 12 (1984), 124–9.Google Scholar

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⁵⁰ The text of the ‘Draft Nationalities Policy of the Party under Present Conditions (CPSU Platform)’ was published in Pravda, 17 08 1989.Google Scholar

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