¹ Jervis, Robert, Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1976), p. 217.Google Scholar

² See especially May, Ernest, Lessons of the Past (New York: Oxford University Press, 1973)Google Scholar; Jervis, , Perception and Misperception, pp. 217–87Google Scholar; Snyderand, GlennDiesing, Paul, Conflict Among Nations: Bargaining, Decision Making and System Structure in International Crises (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1977), pp. 313–21Google Scholar; Larson, Deborah Welch, Origins of Containment: A Psychological Explanation (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1985), pp. 50–7Google Scholar; Neustadt, Richard and May, Ernest, Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision Makers (New York: Freedom Press, 1986)Google Scholar; Mefford, Dwain, ‘The Power of Historical Analogies: Soviet Intervention in Eastern Europe and Central America’, in Fry, Michael, ed., History, the White House and the Kremlin: Statesmen as Historians (London: Pinter, 1991)Google Scholar; Vertzberger, Yaacov, The World in Their Minds: Information Processing, Cognition and Perception in Foreign Policy Decisionmaking (Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 1990), pp. 296–341Google Scholar; Hybel, Alex, How Leaders Reason: U.S. Intervention in the Caribbean Basin and Latin America (Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1990)Google Scholar; and Khong, Yuen Foong, Analogies at War: Korea, Munich, Dien Bien Phu and the Vietnam Decisions (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1992).Google Scholar

³ See Gentner, Dedre, ‘Structure Mapping: A Theoretical Framework for Analogy’, Cognitive Science, 7 (1983), 155–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

⁴ Khong, Yuen Foong, Analogies At War, p. 10.Google Scholar

⁵ Fortunately we are blessed with a large number of first-hand accounts of what went on within these meetings, as well as a growing number of academic studies which draw on these. Of the personal accounts, see especially Carter, Jimmy, Keeping Faith: Memoirs of a President (New York: Bantam, 1982)Google Scholar; Jordan, Hamilton, Crisis: The Last Year of the Carter Presidency (Nzw York: Putnam's, 1982)Google Scholar; Brzezinski, Zbigniew, Power and Principle: Memoirs of the National Security Adviser, 1977–1981 (New York: Farrar, Strauss and Giroux, 1983)Google Scholar; Vance, Cyrus, Hard Choices: Four Critical Years in Managing America's Foreign Policy (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1983)Google Scholar; Powell, Jody, The Other Side of the Story (New York: William Morrow, 1984)Google Scholar; Sick, Gary, All Fall Down: America's Encounter with Iran (New York: Random House, 1985)Google Scholar; and Turner, Stansfield, Terrorism and Democracy (Boston, Mass.: Houghton Mifflin, 1991)Google Scholar. For a selection of the major secondary analyses, see the works cited in fn. 95.

⁶ Interview with Carter, Jimmy, Miller Center Interviews, Carter Presidency Project, 29 11 1982, p. 38Google Scholar, Jimmy Carter Library, Atlanta, Georgia; Christopher, Warren, ‘Introduction’Google Scholar, in Christopher, et al. , American Hostages in Iran: The Conduct of a Crisis (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1985), p. 1.Google Scholar

⁷ Quoted in Armstrong, Scott, Wilson, George and Woodward, Bob, ‘Debate Rekindles on Failed Iran Raid’, Washington Post, 25 04 1982, p. A15.Google Scholar

⁸ Neustadt, and May, , Thinking in Time, p. 72.Google Scholar

⁹ Brzezinski, , Power and Principle, p. 477.Google Scholar

¹⁰ Carter, Jimmy interview, Carter Library, p. 38.Google Scholar

¹¹ Turner, , Terrorism and Democracy, pp. 20–4.Google Scholar

¹² Turner, , Terrorism and Democracy, p. 29.Google Scholar

¹³ Carter, Jimmy, ‘The President's News Conference on November 28, 1979’, Public Papers of the President, 1979, p. 2167.Google Scholar

¹⁴ The Special Coordinating Committee was an ‘action group’ used during the Carter administration to deal with crises and other matters which were not the obvious domain of any single department or organization (see Turner, , Terrorism and Democracy, pp. 27–9).Google Scholar

¹⁵ Turner, , Terrorism and Democracy, p. 31.Google Scholar

¹⁶ Brzezinski, Zbigniew, interview with the author, Washington, DC, 3 02 1995.Google Scholar

¹⁷ Vance, Cyrus, interview with the author, New York. 14 02 1995.Google Scholar

¹⁸ Brzezinski, interview with the author.

¹⁹ Brzezinski, , Power and Principle, p. 84.Google Scholar

²⁰ Brzezinski, , Power and Principle, p. 84.Google Scholar

²¹ Brzezinski, , Power and Principle, p. 84Google Scholar; Brzezinski, interview with the author.

²² Brzezinski, interview with the author.

²³ Brzezinski, interview with the author.

²⁴ Sick, Gary, interview with the author, New York, 12 12 1994.Google Scholar

²⁵ Sick, Gary, ‘Military Options and Constraints’Google Scholar, in Christopher, et al. , American Hostages in Iran, p. 145Google Scholar; see also Carter, , Keeping Faith, pp. 459–60Google Scholar; and Powell, , The Other Side of the Story, pp. 225–6.Google Scholar

²⁶ Sick, interview with the author.

²⁷ Jordan, , Crisis, pp. 43.Google Scholar

²⁸ Brown, Harold's statement to reporters on 25 04 1980.Google Scholar See ‘Secretary Brown's News Conference, April 25 1980’, Department of State Bulletin, 80 (06 1980). p. 41.Google Scholar

²⁹ Quoted in Smith, Terence, ‘Putting the Hostages' Lives First’, New York Times Magazine, 17 05 1981, p. 78.Google Scholar

³⁰ Vance, interview with the author.

³¹ Sick, , All Fall Down, pp. 425.Google Scholar

³² Neustadt, and May, , Thinking in Time, pp. 65.Google Scholar

³³ Sick, interview with the author.

³⁴ See Newsweek, 12 05 1980, p. 38.Google Scholar

³⁵ Quoted in Washington Post, 29 03 1980, p. A13.Google Scholar

³⁶ Sick, interview with the author.

³⁷ Jordan, , Crisis, pp. 242.Google Scholar

³⁸ Vance, interview with the author.

³⁹ Vance, , Hard Choices, pp. 408–9.Google Scholar

⁴⁰ Vance, interview with the author.

⁴¹ Donovan, Robert, Tumultuous Years: The Presidency of Harry S. Truman 1949–1953 (New York: W.W. Norton, 1982), pp. 84–5.Google Scholar

⁴² Vance, interview with the author.

⁴³ Jordan, , Crisis, pp. 36–7.Google Scholar

⁴⁴ See Cyrus Vance, second oral history interview, Lyndon B. Johnson Library, Austin, Texas, 29 December 1969, p. 15.

⁴⁵ Vance, interview with the author.

⁴⁶ Vance, , Hard Choices, pp. 408–9.Google Scholar

⁴⁷ Vance, , Hard Choices, pp. 498–500Google Scholar; see also Foreign Relations, 8 (1949). 1007–19.Google Scholar

⁴⁸ The ‘thirteen’ were the original hostages who were released early on in the hostage crisis, all of whom were black or female (Vance, interview with the author).

⁴⁹ Sick, interview with the author.

⁵⁰ Vance, interview with the author.

⁵¹ See Public Papers of the President, 1979, p. 2242.Google Scholar

⁵² Question and answer session with reporters from Pennsylvania, 19 April 1980, Public Papers of the President, pp. 744–5.Google Scholar

⁵³ Jordan, , Crisis, pp. 36–7.Google Scholar

⁵⁴ Brzezinski, interview with the author.

⁵⁵ Jordan, , Crisis, pp. 36–7.Google Scholar

⁵⁶ Jordan, , Crisis, pp. 36–7.Google Scholar

⁵⁷ Carter, , Keeping Faith, p. 459.Google Scholar

⁵⁸ Turner, , Terrorism and Democracy, p. 60.Google Scholar

⁵⁹ Vance, interview with the author.

⁶⁰ Brzezinski, , Power and Principle, p. 483.Google Scholar

⁶¹ See Smith, Reginald Ross, ‘A Comparative Case Analysis of Presidential Decision-Making’ (unpublished MA dissertation, Emory University, Atlanta, 1984, p. 144).Google Scholar

⁶² Vance, interview with the author.

⁶³ Turner, , Terrorism and Democracy, pp. 29–30.Google Scholar

⁶⁴ Turner, , Terrorism and Democracy, pp. 59–60.Google Scholar

⁶⁵ Turner, Stansfield, interview with the author, McLean, Virginia, 28 10 1994.Google Scholar

⁶⁶ Brzezinski, Zbigniew, ‘The Failed Mission: The Inside Account of the Attempt to Free the Hostages in Iran’, New York Times Magazine, 18 04 1982, p. 28.Google Scholar

⁶⁷ Turner, , Terrorism and Democracy, p. 71.Google Scholar

⁶⁸ Turner, interview with the author.

⁶⁹ Turner, interview with the author.

⁷⁰ Sick, interview with the author.

⁷¹ Brzezinski, , ‘The Failed Mission’, p. 30.Google Scholar

⁷² On this point, see Destler, I. M., Gelb, Leslie and Lake, Anthony, Our Own Worst Enemy: The Unmaking of American Foreign Policy (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1984), p. 223Google Scholar; and Sick, , All Fall Down, pp. 341–3.Google Scholar

⁷³ Vance, , Hard Choices, p. 408.Google Scholar

⁷⁴ Vance, , Hard Choices, p. 408.Google Scholar

⁷⁵ Vance, , Hard Choices, p. 408.Google Scholar

⁷⁶ Vance, interview with the author.

⁷⁷ Lloyd Cutler Exit interview, 2 03 1981, Jimmy Carter Library, Atlanta, Georgia, p. 19.Google Scholar

⁷⁸ See Newsweek, 12 05 1980, p. 36.Google Scholar

⁷⁹ Jordan, , Crisis, p. 246.Google Scholar

⁸⁰ Vance, interview with the author.

⁸¹ Jordan, , Crisis, p. 246.Google Scholar

⁸² Brzezinski, interview with the author.

⁸³ Vance, interview with the author.

⁸⁴ Quoted in Schemmer, Benjamin, ‘Presidential Courage – and the April 1980 Iranian Rescue Mission’, Armed Forces Journal International (05 1981), p. 61.Google Scholar

⁸⁵ Brzezinski, , Power and Principle, p. 495.Google Scholar

⁸⁶ Brzezinski, interview with the author.

⁸⁷ See Time, 5 05 1980, p. 19Google Scholar; Jordan, , Crisis, p. 256.Google Scholar

⁸⁸ Carter, , Keeping Faith, p. 514.Google Scholar

⁸⁹ Brzezinski, interview with the author.

⁹⁰ Brzezinski, , Power and Principle, p. 495.Google Scholar

⁹¹ Brzezinski, interview with the author.

⁹² Time, 5 05 1980, p. 20.Google Scholar

⁹³ Kahneman, Daniel, Slovic, Paul and Tversky, Amos, Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1982).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

⁹⁴ Ribicoff, Abraham, ‘Lessons and Conclusions’Google Scholar, in Christopher, et al. , American Hostages in Iran, p. 386.Google Scholar

⁹⁵ A substantial secondary literature exists on decision making during the hostage crisis: see, for example, Ryan, Paul B., The Iranian Rescue Mission: Why It Failed (Annapolis, Md: Naval Institute Press, 1985)Google Scholar; Smith, Steve, ‘Policy Preferences and Bureaucratic Position: The Case of the American Hostage Rescue Mission’, International Affairs, 61 (1984/1985), 9–25CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Smith, Steve, ‘Groupthink and the Hostage Rescue Mission’, British Journal of Political Science, 15 (1985), 117–23CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Hollis, Martin and Smith, Steve, ‘Roles and Reasons in Foreign Policy Decision Making’, British Journal of Political Science, 16 (1986), 269–86CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Glad, Betty, ‘Personality, Political and Group Process Variables in Foreign Policy Decision-Making: Jimmy Carter's Handling of the Iranian Hostage Crisis’, International Political Science Review, 10 (1989), 35–61CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Janis, Irving, Crucial Decisions (New York: Free Press, 1989), pp. 193–6Google Scholar; McDermott, Rose, ‘Prospect Theory in International Relations: The Iranian Hostage Rescue Mission’, Political Psychology, 13 (1992), 237–63CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Link, Michael and Kegley, Charles, ‘Is Access Influence? Measuring Adviser-Presidential Interactions in the Light of the Iranian Hostage Crisis’. International Interactions, 18 (1993), 343–64CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Gartner, Scott, ‘Predicting the Timing of Carter's Decision to Initiate a Hostage Rescue Attempt: Modelling a Dynamic Information Environment’, International Interactions, 18 (1993), 365–86CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Of these, only McDermott's account makes reference to the historical precedents employed by the key participants in the crisis.

⁹⁶ Allison, Graham, Essence of Decision (Boston, Mass.: Little Brown, 1971)Google Scholar. For an in-depth examination of these issues, see Smith, , ‘Policy Preferences and Bureaucratic Position’Google Scholar; and Hollis, and Smith, , ‘Roles and Reasons in Foreign Policy Decision Making’Google Scholar. Both articles adopt a ‘soft’ version of the BP approach, in which individual actors matter but where governmental role is a key factor in the shaping of policy attitudes.

⁹⁷ Vance, interview with the author.

⁹⁸ Smith, , p. 23Google Scholar; Hollis, and Smith, , passim.Google Scholar

⁹⁹ Brzezinski, interview with the author.

¹⁰⁰ Abelson, Robert, ‘Script Processing in Attitude Formation and Decision-Making’, in Carroll, John and Payne, John, eds, Cognition and Social Behavior (Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum, 1976)Google Scholar; Larson, Deborah Welch, Origins of Containment, pp. 50–7.Google Scholar

¹⁰¹ For some representative examples, see Gick, Mary and Holyoak, Keith, ‘Analogical Problem-Solving’, Cognitive Psychology, 12 (1980), 306–55CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Gentner, Dedre and Toupin, Cecile, ‘Systematicity and Surface Similarity in the Development of Analogy’, Cognitive Science, 10 (1986), 277–300CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Halpern, Diane, Hansen, Carol and Riefer, David, ‘Analogies as an Aid to Understanding and Memory’, Journal of Educational Psychology, 82 (1990), 298–305.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

¹⁰² Ripley, Brian, ‘Culture, Cognition and Bureaucratic Politics’, in Neack, Laura, Hey, Jeanne and Haney, Patrick, eds, Foreign Policy Analysis: Continuity and Change in its Second Generation (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1995).Google Scholar