Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-t8hqh Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-26T15:02:20.724Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Military Aid, Regime Vulnerability and the Escalation of Political Violence

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 September 2019

Andrew Boutton Open the ORCID record for Andrew Boutton [Opens in a new window]
Andrew Boutton*
Affiliation:
School of Politics, Security, and International Affairs, University of Central Florida, Orlando
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This article offers an explanation for the failures of US military assistance programs in some countries. The author argues that the effects of military aid are conditional upon the vulnerability of the recipient regime. Power consolidation by an insecure leader often provokes violent opposition. However, because military aid strengthens the security forces of the recipient state, it generates a moral hazard that encourages exclusionary power consolidation, with the expectation that continued military aid will help manage violent blowback. Using proxies for regime vulnerability and an instrument for US military aid, the study shows that military aid increases anti-regime violence in new regimes (particularly new democracies) and in all personalist regimes. In contrast, military assistance has no effect on violence in established, non-personalist regimes. The article develops a novel theory of how regime characteristics condition responses to external military support, and identifies a distinct mechanism through which military aid increases domestic political violence.

Keywords

civil–military relationsmilitary aidpolitical violencesecurity assistanceauthoritarian regimesregime transitionsnew regimesdemocratization
Type
Article
Information
British Journal of Political Science , Volume 51 , Issue 2 , April 2021 , pp. 507 - 525
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2019

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Acemoglu, D, Robinson, J and Verdier, T (2004) Kleptocracy and divide-and-rule: a model of personal rule. Journal of the European Economic Association 2, 162–192.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ahmed, FZ (2016) Does foreign aid harm political rights? Evidence from US aid. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 11(2), 118–217.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
al-Naba (2018) The story of the three repented officers from mainland Egypt to Sinai. al-Naba 159, 9–10.Google Scholar
Alesina, A and Tabellini, G (1990) A positive theory of fiscal deficits and government debt. Review of Economic Studies 57, 403–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arriola, LR (2009) Patronage and political stability in Africa. Comparative Political Studies 42(10), 1339–1362.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Atkinson, C (2006) Constructivist implications of material power: military engagement and the socialization of states, 1972–2000. International Studies Quarterly 50, 509–537.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bapat, NA (2011) Transnational terrorism, US military aid, and the incentive to misrepresent. Journal of Peace Research 48(3), 303–318.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
BBC (2017) Museveni promotes son in major reshuffle. Available from http://bbc.in/2izAIqJ.Google Scholar
Benjaminsen, TA and Ba, B (2018) Why do pastoralists in Mali join jihadist groups? A political ecological explanation. Journal of Peasant Studies 46(1), 1–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Biddle, S, MacDonald, J and Baker, R (2018) Small footprint, small payoff: the military effectiveness of security force assistance. Journal of Strategic Studies 41(1–2), 89–142.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bigot, L (2016) Au Niger, l'armée affaiblie par la paranoïa de son president [In Niger, the army is weakened by the president's paranoia]. Le Monde. Available from https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2016/10/10/au-niger-l-armee-affaiblie-par-la-paranoia-de-son-president_5011114_3212.html.Google Scholar
Boutton, A (2019) Replication Data for Military Aid, Regime Vulnerability and the Escalation of Political Violence”, https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/GOGH2L, Harvard Dataverse,V1 UNF:6:glc87aiEEi3YadaO/aqF5g== [fileUNF].Google Scholar
Boutton, A (2019a) Coup-proofing in the shadow of intervention: alliances, moral hazard, and violence in authoritarian regimes. International Studies Quarterly 63(1), 43–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boutton, A (2019b) Of terrorism and revenue: why foreign aid exacerbates terrorism in personalist regimes. Conflict Management and Peace Science 36(4), 359–384.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boutton, A and Carter, DB (2014) Fair weather allies: terrorism and the selective allocation of US foreign aid. Journal of Conflict Resolution 58(7), 1144–1173.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brooker, P (1995) Twentieth Century Dictatorships: The Ideological One-Party States. New York: New York University Press.Google Scholar
Brooks, R (2019) Integrating the civil–military relations subfield. Annual Review of Political Science 22, 379–398.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Byman, D (2006) Friends like these: counterinsurgency and the war on terrorism. International Security 31(2), 79–115.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chapman, JM (2013) Cauldron of Resistance: Ngo Dinh Diem, the United States, and 1950s Southern Vietnam. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Cheibub, JA (2007) Presidentialism, Parliamentarism, and Democracy. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Cook, SJ and Savun, B (2016) New democracies and the risk of civil conflict: the lasting legacy of military rule. Journal of Peace Research 53(6), 745–757.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crenshaw, M (1981) The causes of terrorism. Comparative Politics 13(4), 379–399.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cunningham, D (2016) Preventing civil war: how the potential for international intervention can deter conflict onset. World Politics 68(2), 307–340.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davenport, C (2007) State repression and the tyrannical peace. Journal of Peace Research 44(4), 485–504.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
DeBruin, E (2014) Coup-proofing for dummies: the benefits of following the Maliki playbook. Foreign Affairs, 27 July.Google Scholar
DeBruin, E (2018) Preventing coups d’états: how counterbalancing works. Journal of Conflict Resolution 62(7), 1433–1458.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Department of the Army (2006) Counterinsurgency, Field Manual 3–24. Washington, DC: United States Department of the Army.Google Scholar
Dodge, T (2012) Iraq's road back to dictatorship. Survival 54(3), 147–168.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dreher, A and Langlotz, S (2017) Aid and growth: new evidence using an excludable instrument. CESIFO Working Paper No. 5515. Available from https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2674572 (accessed 1 July 2019).Google Scholar
Dwyer, M (2018) Soldiers in Revolt: Army Mutinies in Africa. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Escribà-Folch, A (2013) Accountable for what? Regime types, performance, and the fate of outgoing dictators, 1946–2004. Democratization 20(1), 160–185.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Escribà-Folch, A and Wright, J (2010) Dealing with tyranny: international sanctions and the survival of authoritarian rulers. International Studies Quarterly 54, 335–359.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frantz, E and Stein, E (2017) Countering coups: leadership succession rules in dictatorships. Comparative Political Studies 50(7), 935–962.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frontline, PBS (2014) The Rise of ISIS. Public Broadcasting Station, Season 33, Episode 2, 28 October.Google Scholar
Gandhi, J and Przeworski, A (2007) Authoritarian institutions and the survival of autocrats. Comparative Political Studies 40(11), 1279–1301.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Geddes, B, Wright, J and Frantz, E (2014) Autocratic breakdown and regime transitions: a new data set. Perspectives on Politics 12(2), 313–331.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Geddes, B, Wright, J and Frantz, E (2018) How Dictatorships Work. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldstein, J and Mashal, M (2015) Taliban fighters capture Kunduz City as Afghan forces retreat. The New York Times, 28 September. Available from https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/29/world/asia/taliban-fighters-enter-city-of-kunduz-in-northern-afghanistan.html.Google Scholar
Greitens, SC (2016) Dictators and Their Secret Police: Coercive Institutions and State Violence. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harkness, KA (2016) The ethnic army and the state: explaining coup traps and the difficulties of democratization in Africa. Journal of Conflict Resolution 60(4), 587–616.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harmon, SA (2014) Terror and insurgency in the Sahara-Sahel Region. Burlington, VT: Ashgate Publishing Co.Google Scholar
Herbst, J (1997) Responding to state failure in Africa. International Security 21(3), 120–144.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herbst, J (2004) African militaries and rebellion: the political economy of threat and combat effectiveness. Journal of Peace Research 41(3), 357–369.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huntington, S (1968) Political Order in Changing Societies. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
International Crisis Group (2017) Niger and Boko Haram: Beyond counterinsurgency. No. 245. Brussels: ICG.Google Scholar
International Crisis Group (2018) Countering jihadist militancy in Bangladesh. Asia Report, No. 295. Brussels: ICG.Google Scholar
Jackson, RH and Rosberg, CG (1984) Personal rule: theory and practice in Africa. Comparative Politics 16(4), 421–442.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jadoon, A (2017) Persuasion and predation: the effects of US military aid and international development aid on civilian killings. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 41(10), 776–800.Google Scholar
Jeune, Afrique (2017) Niger: Libération de prisonniers du coup d’état présumé de 2015 [Niger: liberation of prisoners from the attempted coup of 2015]. Agence Presse France, 25 March. Available from https://www.jeuneafrique.com/depeches/421356/societe/niger-liberation-de-prisonniers-coup-detat-presume-de-2015/ (accessed 1 July 2019).Google Scholar
Johnsen, GD (2013) The Last Refuge: Yemen, Al-Qaeda, and America's War in Arabia. New York: W.W. Norton.Google Scholar
Kedo, A and Goodman, C (2015) US military aid to presidential guards a risky venture. LobeLog. Available from https://lobelog.com/u-s-military-aid-to-presidential-guards-a-risky-venture/ (accessed 1 July 2019).Google Scholar
Keefer, P (2007) Clientelism, credibility, and the policy choices of young democracies. American Journal of Political Science 51(4), 804–821.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kenwick, MR (2018) Is civilian control self-reinforcing? A measurement-based analysis of civil-military relations. Manuscript. Available from http://sites.psu.edu/mikekenwick/wp-content/uploads/sites/19790/2014/10/kenwick_civctrl.pdf.Google Scholar
Khedery, A (2014) Why we stuck with Maliki and lost Iraq. Washington Post, 3 July.Google Scholar
Ladwig, W (2017) The Forgotten Front: Patron-Client Relations in Counterinsurgency. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Magaloni, B (2008) Credible power-sharing and the longevity of authoritarian rule. Comparative Political Studies 41(4), 715–741.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mansfield, ED and Pevehouse, JC (2006) Democratization and international organizations. International Organization 60(1), 137–167.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mietzner, M (2013) A veto player no more? The declining political influence of the military in post-authoritarian Indonesia. In Kunkler, M and Stepan, A (eds), Democracy and Islam in Indonesia. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Nunn, N and Qian, N (2014) US food aid and civil conflict. American Economic Review 104(6), 1630–1666.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pilster, U and Böhmelt, T (2011) Coup-proofing and military effectiveness in interstate wars, 1967–1999. Conflict Management and Peace Science 28(4), 331–350.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Quinlivan, JT (1999) Coup proofing: its practice and consequences in the Middle East. International Security 24(2), 131–165.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ritter, EH (2014) Policy disputes, political survival, and the onset and severity of state repression. Journal of Conflict Resolution 58(1), 143–168.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roessler, P (2011) The enemy within: personal rule, coups, and civil war in Africa. World Politics 63(2), 300–346.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roessler, P (2016) Ethnic Politics and State Power in Africa: The Logic of the Coup-Civil War Trap. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roessler, P and Ohls, D (2018) Self-enforcing powersharing in weak states. International Organization 72(2), 423–454.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Savage, JD and Caverley, J (2017) When human capital threatens the capitol: foreign aid in the form of military training and coups. Journal of Peace Research 54(4), 542–557.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Security Assistance Monitor (2017) US Security Aid Database. Available from http://securityassistance.org.Google Scholar
Shafer, DM (1988) Deadly Paradigms: The Failure of US Counterinsurgency Policy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Shurkin, M (2018) Cameroon's days as a reliable US partner may be numbered. United Press International, 26 October. Available from https://www.upi.com/Top_News/Voices/2018/10/26/Cameroons-days-as-reliable-US-partner-may-be-numbered/2091540556916/.Google Scholar
Smith, B (2005) Life of the party: the origins of regime breakdown and persistence under single-party rule. World Politics 57(3), 421–451.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Song, W and Wright, J (2018) The North Korean autocracy in comparative perspective. Journal of East Asian Studies 18(2), 157–180.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
START (2018) Global Terrorism Database. Available from http://www.start.umd.edu/start/.Google Scholar
Stock, JH and Yogo, M (2005) Testing for weak instruments in linear IV regression. In Andrews, DWK and Stock, JH (eds), Identification and Inference for Econometric Models. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 80–108.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sudduth, JK (2017a) Coup risk, coup-proofing and leader survival. Journal of Peace Research 54(1), 3–15.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sudduth, JK (2017b) The strategic logic of elite purges in dictatorships. Comparative Political Studies 50(13), 1768–1801.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sudduth, JK and Braithwaite, JM (2016) Military purges and the recurrence of civil conflict. Research and Politics 3(1), 1–6.Google Scholar
Sullivan, P (2007) S. Vietnamese Gen. Nguyen Chanh Thi. Washington Post, 26 June. Available from http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/26/AR2007062602195.html.Google Scholar
Svolik, M (2008) Authoritarian reversals and democratic consolidation. American Political Science Review 102(2), 153–168.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Svolik, M (2009) Power sharing and leadership dynamics in authoritarian regimes. American Journal of Political Science 53(2), 477–494.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Svolik, M (2012) The Politics of Authoritarian Rule. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Svolik, M (2015) Which democracies will last? Coups, incumbent takeovers, and the dynamic of democratic consolidation. British Journal of Political Science 45(4), 715–738.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tahir, N (2017) Does aid cause conflict in Pakistan? Defense and Peace Economics 28(1), 112–135.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Talmadge, C (2015) The Dictator's Army: Battlefield Effectiveness in Authoritarian Regimes. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tankel, S (2018) With Us and Against Us: How America's Partners Help and Hinder the War on Terror. New York: Columbia University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tilly, C (1985) War making and state making as organized crime. In Evans, P, Rueschemeyer, D and Skocpol, T (eds), Bringing the State Back In. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 170–187.Google Scholar
Watts, C, Shapiro, J and Brown, V (2007) Al-Qa'ida's (Mis)Adventures in the Horn of Africa. West Point, NY: Combatting Terrorism Center.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Boutton Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/GOGH2L
Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Boutton supplementary material

Boutton supplementary material

Download Boutton supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 408.7 KB