Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-2brh9 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-24T16:33:21.377Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Japanese Liberal Democratic Party Support and the Gender Gap: A New Approach

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 February 2011

Daniel P. Aldrich  and
Rieko Kage
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Scholars have argued that there is a broad gender gap in support for the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan. We uncover strong evidence that age, rather than gender, along with rural or urban location, serves as the most critical determinant of party support. Through logistic regression, propensity score matching and simulation techniques applied to four large-scale datasets; we demonstrate that age effects are consistent but slowly diminishing across cohorts between the mid-1970s and the early 2000s. As Japanese women and men age, they come to support the LDP at similar rates controlling for education, income and other demographic factors. We argue that this age gap is a result of socialization and redistribution and not educational levels or socio-economic status, as is often suggested.

Type
Research Article
Information
British Journal of Political Science , Volume 41 , Issue 4 , October 2011 , pp. 713 - 733
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2011

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

1 Calder, Kent, Crisis and Compensation: Public Policy and Political Stability in Japan (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1988)Google Scholar; Christensen, Ray, Ending the LDP Hegemony: Party Cooperation in Japan (Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press, 2000)Google Scholar; Scheiner, Ethan, Democracy without Competition in Japan: Opposition Failure in a One-Party Dominant State (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Reed, Steven, McElwain, Kenneth and Shimizu, Kay, Political Changes in Japan: Electoral Behavior, Party Realignment, and the Koizumi Reforms (Stanford, Calif.: Shorenstein Asia Pacific Research Center, 2009)Google Scholar.

2 Calder, Crisis and Compensation, chap. 11.

3 Scheiner, Democracy without Competition.

4 Martin, Sherry, ‘Alienated, Independent and Female: Lessons from the Japanese Electorate’, Social Science Japan Journal, 7 (2004), 1–19CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

5 Pharr, Susan, ‘ “Moralism” and the Gender Gap: Judgments of Political Ethics in Japan’, Political Psychology, 19 (1998), 211–236CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Pharr, Susan, ‘Officials’ Misconduct and Public Distrust: Japan and the Trilateral Democracies’, in Susan Pharr and Robert Putnam, eds, Disaffected Democracies: What's Troubling the Trilateral Countries? (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2000), pp. 173–201Google Scholar.

6 LeBlanc, Robin, Bicycle Citizens: The Political World of the Japanese Housewife (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1999)Google Scholar.

7 Martin, ‘Alienated, Independent and Female’; Matsuda, Natsu, ‘The Japanese Partisan Gender Gap: Why Are Women Less Likely to Support the Ruling Party than Men?’(paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 2005)Google Scholar; Burden, Barry, ‘The Puzzle of the Japanese Gender Gap in LDP Support’, in Reed, McElwain and Shimizu, eds, Political Changes in Japan, pp. 221–238Google Scholar.

8 Inglehart, Ronald and Norris, Pippa, Rising Tide: Gender Equality and Cultural Change (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

9 Inglehart, Ronald, ‘The Renaissance of Political Culture’, American Political Science Review, 8 (1988), 1203–1230CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Sapiro, Virginia, ‘Not Your Parents’ Political Socialization: Introduction for a New Generation’, Annual Review of Political Science, 7 (2004), 1–23CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

10 Aldrich, Daniel P. and Kage, Rieko, ‘Mars and Venus at Twilight: A Critical Investigation of Moralism, Age Effects, and Sex Differences’, Political Psychology, 24 (2003), 23–40CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

11 See Miyake, Ichirō, Tōhyō Kodo [Voting Behavior] (Tokyo: Tokyo Daigaku Shuppankai, 1985)Google Scholar; and Shinada, Yutaka, ‘2005-nen Sōsenkyo wo Setsumeisuru [Explaining the 2005 General Elections]’, Leviathan 39 (2006), 38–69Google Scholar.

12 Rosenbaum, Paul R. and Rubin, Donald B., ‘The Central Role of the Propensity Score in Observational Studies for Causal Effects’, Biometrika, 70 (1983), 41–55CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Rosenbaum, Paul and Rubin, Donald, ‘Constructing a Control Group Using Multivariate Matched Sampling Methods that Incorporate the Propensity Score’, American Statistician, 39 (1985), 3–38Google Scholar.

13 Due to the technical requirements for PSM, we must dichotomize variables, but in doing so we lose the fine-grained results available through analyses of age and other factors which treat them as continuous. Furthermore, while in theory we could subdivide our existing cases into smaller, decadal birth years, this would create samples too small for high quality matches. For these reasons, we employ standard logistic regression techniques alongside PSM.

14 Inglehart, Ronald and Norris, Pippa, ‘The Developmental Theory of the Gender Gap: Women's and Men's Voting Behavior in Global Perspective’, International Review of Political Science, 21 (2000), 441–463CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

15 Box-Steffenmeier, Janet M., DeBoef, Suzanna and Lin, Tse-Min, ‘The Dynamics of the Gender Gap’, American Political Science Review, 98 (2004), 515–528CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Kaufmann, Karen M., ‘The Gender Gap’, PS: Political Science and Politics, 39 (2006), 447–453Google Scholar; Burden, Barry, ‘The Social Roots of the Partisan Gender Gap’, Public Opinion Quarterly, 72 (2008), 55–75CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

16 Burden, ‘The Puzzle of the Japanese Gender Gap in LDP Support’.

17 LeBlanc, Bicycle Citizens, p. 200.

18 Martin, ‘Alienated, Independent and Female’.

19 Gilligan, Carol, ‘Concepts of the Self and of Morality’, Harvard Education Review, 47 (1977), 481–519CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Gilligan, Carol, In a Different Voice: Psychological Theory and Women's Development (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1982)Google Scholar; Gilligan, Carol, ‘Adolescent Development Reconsidered’, in Carol Gilligan, Janie Ward and Jill Taylor, eds, Mapping the Moral Domain: A Contribution of Women's Thinking to Psychological Theory and Education (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1988)Google Scholar.

20 Patterson, Dennis and Nishikawa, Misa, ‘Political Interest or Interest in Politics? Gender and Party Support in Postwar Japan’, Women and Politics, 24 (2002), 1–34CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Recent surveys show that in terms of economic policies, the LDP is sometimes seem to be “softer” than the LDP, while at other times the reverse has been true. However, in terms of foreign policy issues, voters have consistently placed the LDP to the right of the DPJ. See Taniguchi, Masaki, Uenohara, Hideaki and Sakaiya, Shiro, ‘Who Ended the LDP's Reign?’ Japan Echo, 37 (2010), 19–25Google Scholar.

21 Mari May, Ann and Stephenson, Kurt, ‘Women and the Great Retrenchment: The Political Economy of Gender in the 1980s’, Journal of Economic Issues, 28 (1994), 533–542Google Scholar.

22 Kaufmann, Karen M. and Petrocik, John R., ‘The Changing Politics of American Men: Understanding the Sources of the Gender Gap’, American Journal of Political Science, 43 (1999), 864–887CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Patterson and Nishikawa, ‘Political Interest or Interest in Politics?’

23 Gilens, Martin, ‘Gender and Support for Reagan: A Comprehensive Model of Presidential Approval,’ American Journal of Political Science, 32 (1988), 19–49CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

24 Iversen, Torben and Rosenbluth, Frances, ‘The Political Economy of Gender: Explaining Cross-National Variation in the Gender Division of Labor and the Gender Voting Gap’, American Journal of Political Science, 50 (2006), 1–19CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

25 Steel, Gill, ‘Gender and Political Behavior in Japan,’ Social Science Japan Journal, 7 (2004), 223–244CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

26 Susan Pharr, ‘ “Moralism” and the Gender Gap’.

27 Putnam, Robert, Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2000)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

28 Aldrich and Kage, ‘Mars and Venus at Twilight’.

29 Kent Jennings, M. and Niemi, Richard, ‘Continuity and Change in Political Orientations: A Longitudinal Study of Two Generations’, American Political Science Review, 9 (1975), 1316–1335CrossRefGoogle Scholar, at p. 1318.

30 Rosenbaum, and Rubin, , ‘The Central Role of the Propensity Score’, p. 42Google Scholar.

31 Holland, Paul W., ‘Statistics and Causal Inference (with Discussion)’, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 81(1986), 945–960CrossRefGoogle Scholar, at p. 950.

32 Rosenbaum and Rubin, ‘Constructing a Control Group Using Multivariate Matched Sampling Methods’.

33 Essama-Nssah, Boniface, ‘Propensity Score Matching and Policy Impact Analysis: A Demonstration in Eviews’ (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No. 3877 B, 2006)Google Scholar.

34 Imai, Kosuke, ‘Do Get-Out-The-Vote Calls Reduce Turnout? The Importance of Statistical Methods for Field Experiments’, American Political Science Review, 99 (2005), 283–300CrossRefGoogle Scholar, at p. 294.

35 Rosenbaum, Paul R. and Rubin, Donald B., ‘Reducing Bias in Observational Studies Using Subclassification on the Propensity Score’, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 79, No. 387 (1984), 516–524CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

36 Imai, , ‘Do Get-Out-The-Vote Calls Reduce Turnout?’, p. 297Google Scholar.

37 Diagnostics for all four dataset investigations – including histograms showing the balance of treated and untreated observations – are available from the authors upon request; they have been omitted here for the sake of space.

38 For all four datasets, the survey instrument asked the respondent to choose which, if any, political party they supported, from a list of all (then) contemporary parties in Japan; respondents could also respond that they supported no party, or did not know.

39 It is important to note that propensity score matching and standard regression may indeed lead to similar estimations of the influence of variables, depending on the make-up and size of the original observational dataset. With these JABISS 1976 data, as mentioned, neither method found support for the argument that gender measurably influenced party choice. In the 1993 CEL data, both methods find no support for sex as a critical factor in party support, while in the 1996 JEDS data both methods found support for age, and so on.

40 Calder, Crisis and Compensation.

41 King, Gary, Tomz, Michael and Wittenberg, Jason, ‘Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation’, American Journal of Political Science, 44 (2000), 347–361CrossRefGoogle Scholar, at p. 347.

42 Tomz, Michael and Wittenberg, Jason, ‘Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results’ (short course presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Atlanta , 1999), p. 11Google Scholar.

43 Miyake, Tōhyō Kodo [Voting Behavior]; Hiroshi Hirano, Henyo-suru Nihon Shakai to Tohyo Kodo [Changing Japanese Society and Voting Behavior] (Tokyo: Bokutakusha, 2007).

44 Konoe, Shinsuke, ‘Shoshi Koreika Shakai ni okeru Koreisha no Toha Kodo [The Partisanship of Elderly Voters in Japan's Graying Society]’, Kagawa Hōgaku, 24 (2004), 118–181Google Scholar.

45 Miyake, Tōhyō Kodo [Voting Behavior].

46 Binstock, Robert and Quadagno, Jill, ‘Aging and Politics’, in R. H. Binstock and L. K. George, eds, The Handbook of Aging and the Social Sciences, 5th edn (San Diego, Calif.: Academic Press, 2001), pp. 333–351Google Scholar.

47 Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications, Japan, Kakei Chosa Nenpo (Heisei 21-nendo ban) [Annual Report on the Family Income and Expenditure Survey, Fiscal Year 2009]. Available at http://www.e-stat.go.jp/SG1/estat/List.do?lid=000001066465, retrieved 10 December 2010.

48 Hout, Michael and Greeley, Andrew, ‘The Center Doesn't Hold: Church Attendance in the United States, 1940–1984’, American Sociological Review, 52 (1987), 225–245CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Firebaugh, Glenn and Harley, Brian, ‘Trends in US Church Attendance: Secularization and Revival or Merely Life-Cycle Effects’, Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, 30 (1991), 275–301CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Tilley, James, ‘Libertarian–Authoritarian Value Change in Britain, 1974–2001’, Political Studies, 53 (2005), 442–453CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

49 Lynch, Julia, Age in the Welfare State: The Origins of Social Spending on Pensioners, Workers, and Children (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

50 Japanese Ministry of Education, Gakko Kihon Chōsa [Basic Survey on Schools] (Tokyo: Okurasho Insatsukyoku, various years)Google Scholar.

51 Sōmushō Tōkeikyoku, Zenkoku Shohi Jittai Chōsa [Family Income and Expenditure Survey], http://www.stat.go.jp/data/chouki/20.htm, retrieved 10 April 2010.

52 Inglehart, Ronald, Modernization and Postmodernization (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1997)Google Scholar.

53 Institute of Statistical Mathematics, ‘Survey on the National Character’, available at http://www.ism.ac.jp/kokuminsei/table/data/html/ss8/8_1b/8_1b_60.htm, accessed 22 July 2009Google Scholar.

54 Institute of Statistical Mathematics, ‘Survey on the National Character’, available at http://www.ism.ac.jp/kokuminsei/table/data/html/ss2/2_1/2_1_60.htm, accessed 22 July 2009Google Scholar.

55 Lynch, Age in the Welfare State.

56 Kitaoka, Shinichi and Tanaka, Aiji, eds, Nenkin Kaikaku no Seiji Keizaigaku [The Political Economy of Pension Reforms in Japan] (Tokyo: Toyo Keizai Shinposha, 2005)Google Scholar.

57 See Sugawara, Taku, Yoron no Kyokukai: Naze Jiminto wa Taihai Shitanoka [Misunderstanding Public Opinion: Explaining the Liberal Democratic Party's Defeat] (Tokyo: Kobunsha, 2009)Google Scholar; and Aiji Tanaka, Masaru Kohno, Airo Hino, Ken Iida and Yomiuri Shimbun Yoron Chōsabu, eds, 2009 nen, Naze Seiken Kotai wa Okottanoka [Why Did Alteration of Power Occur in 2009?] (Tokyo: Keiso Shobo, 2009).

58 Krauss, Ellis and Pekkanen, Robert, ‘The Rise and Fall of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party’, Journal of Asian Studies, 69 (2010), 5–15CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

59 Maeda, Yukio, ‘Jiji Yoron Chōsa ni Miru Seito Shijiritsu no Suī, 1989–2004’ [The Evolution of Partisan Support in Japan, 1989–2004], Chuo Chōsaho, 564 (2004), 1–8Google Scholar.

60 Hino, Airo, ‘Seikei Kotai wa Ichinichi ni shite Narazu’ [Alteration of Power Does not Happen in a Day], in Aiji Tanaka et al., eds, 2009 nen [Why Did Alteration of Power Occur in 2009?]Google Scholar; Ken Iida, ‘ “Shitsubo” to “Kitai” ga umu Seiken Kotai’ [The Role of ‘Disappointment’ and ‘Hope’ in Driving the Alteration of Power], in Aiji Tanaka et al., eds., 2009 nen.

61 Sugawara, , Yoron no Kyokukai, pp. 53–4Google Scholar.

62 Suishin Kyokai, Akarui Senkyo, Shūgiin Giin Senkyo Nenreibetsu Tohyoritsu no Suii (Voter Turnout in Lower House Elections, by Cohort: 1967–2009); http://www.akaruisenkyo.or.jp/070various/sg_nenrei.html, retrieved 23 March 2010.Google Scholar

63 Postal voting is very limited in Japan and is primarily for the handicapped, severely ill or overseas voters. In contrast to the American system, absentee voting in Japan is not voting by mail but mainly involves voters coming to the polls and voting at the polls before the election day.

64 Kohno, Masaru, ‘Henyo suru Nihon no Sosenkyo’ [Changes in Japan's Electoral Landscape], in Aiji Tanaka et al., eds, 2009 nen [Why Did Alteration of Power Occur in 2009?], p. 71Google Scholar.

65 While detailed analyses of absentee voting in Japan are few, a study conducted by the City of Yokohama in 2006 found that respondents in their 20s were especially likely to vote absentee compared to respondents who belonged to other age groups (Yokohama-shi Senkyo Kanri Iinkai, Tohyo Sanka Jokyo Chōsa [Survey on Voter Turnout]. Available at http://www.city.yokohama.jp/me/senkan/tosho/gaiyo12.html, retrieved 10 April 2010). Because of the small sample size, results need to be confirmed through further surveys.

66 Inglehart and Norris, Rising Tide.

67 Pharr, ‘ “Moralism” and the Gender Gap’; and Pharr, ‘Officials’ Misconduct and Public Distrust’.

68 Miyake, Ichirō, Seitō Shiji no Kōzō [Understanding Party Support] (Tokyo: Bokutakusha, 1998)Google Scholar.

69 Inglehart, ‘The Renaissance of Political Culture’; Sapiro, ‘Not Your Parents’ Political Socialization’.

70 Martin, Sherry, ‘Keeping Women in Their Place? Spousal Influence, Vote Choice and Changing Marital Dynamics in Japan’, Journal of Women, Politics & Policy, 28 (2006), 29–55CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

71 Pempel, T. J., ed., Uncommon Democracies: The One Party Dominant Regimes (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1990)Google Scholar.