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³ Gore, Albert Sr, Let the Glory Out: My South and Its Politics (Athens, Ga.: Hill Street Classics, 2000), p. 211Google Scholar.

⁴ For example, see: Adams, James, ‘A Theory of Spatial Competition with Biased Voters: Party Policies Viewed Temporally and Comparatively’, British Journal of Political Science, 31 (2001), 121–158CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Adams, James, Bishin, Benjamin G. and Dow, Jay, ‘Representation in Congressional Campaigns: Evidence for Discounting/Directional Voting in U.S. Senate Elections’, Journal of Politics, 66 (2004), 348–373CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Adams, James and Somer-Topcu, Zeynep, ‘Policy Adjustment by Parties in Response to Rival Parties’ Policy Shifts: Spatial Theory and the Dynamics of Party Competition in Twenty-Five Post-War Democracies’, British Journal of Political Science, 39 (2009), 825–846CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Budge, Ian, ‘A New Spatial Theory of Party Competition: Uncertainty, Ideology, and Policy Equilibria Viewed Comparatively and Temporally’, British Journal of Political Science, 24 (1994), 443–467CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Downs, Anthony, An Economic Theory of Democracy (New York: Harper Collins, 1957)Google Scholar.

⁵ Others have examined uncertainty in the context of the US House. For example, see: Bertelli, Anthony M. and Carson, Jamie, ‘Constituency Effects, Redistricting, and Representation in U.S. House Elections’ (paper prepared for the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, 2006)Google Scholar; Espino, Rodolfo and Canon, David T., ‘Vote Switching in the U.S. House’, Journal of Politics, 71 (2009), 324–338CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Richman, Jesse, ‘Uncertainty and the Prevalence of Committee Outliers’, Legislative Studies Quarterly, 33 (2008), 323–347CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Scholars have also examined how think tanks can reduce policy uncertainty. For example, see: Bertelli, Anthony M. and Wenger, Jeffrey B., ‘Demanding Information: Think Tanks and the US Congress’, British Journal of Political Science, 39 (2009), 225–242CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Esterling, Kevin M., The Political Economy of Expertise (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2004)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁶ Many scholars have noted the impact of increased black enfranchisement on the politics of the US South and the subsequent rise of the Republican party. For example, see: Aistrup, Joseph, Southern Strategy Revisited (Lexington: University of Kentucky Press, 1996)Google Scholar; Bullock, Charles S., ‘Racial Crossover Voting and the Election of Black Officials’, Journal of Politics, 46 (1984), 238–251CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Keech, William R., The Impact of Negro Voting (Westport, Conn.: Greenwood Press, 1981)Google Scholar; Lublin, David I., The Republican South (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2004)Google Scholar; Stanley, Harold W., Voter Mobilization and the Politics of Race (New York: Praeger, 1987)Google Scholar. We also know quite a bit about ideological shifts among southern House members in response to increases in black voting power. For example, see: Bullock, Charles S., ‘Congressional Voting and the Mobilization of a Black Electorate in the South’, Journal of Politics, 46 (1981), 662–682CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Grose, Christian R., Congress in Black and White (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2011)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Grose, Christian R., ‘Disentangling Constituency and Legislator Effects in Legislative Representation’, Social Science Quarterly, 86 (2005), 427–443CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Whitby, Kenny J. and Gilliam, Franklin D., ‘A Longitudinal Analysis of Competing Explanations for the Transformation of Southern Congressional Politics’, Journal of Politics, 53 (1991), 504–518CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Much less is known about senators’ roll-call voting (though see Hood, M. V., Kidd, Quentin and Morris, Irwin L., ‘The Key Issue: Constituency Effects and Southern Senators’ Roll-call Voting on Civil Rights’, Legislative Studies Quarterly, 26 (2001), 599–621CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Hutchings, Vincent L., McClerking, Harwood K., and Charles, Guy-Uriel, ‘Congressional Representation of Black Interests’, Journal of Politics, 66 (2004), 450–468CrossRefGoogle Scholar, and we know almost nothing about the ideological consistency of voting in legislatures.

⁷ Black, Earl and Black, Merle, The Rise of Southern Republicans (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 2002), p. 125Google Scholar.

⁸ Brady, Michael C. and Rohde, David W., ‘When Good Predictions Go Bad: Vote Context, Win Margins, and Misclassified Votes in the 75th to 108th Congresses’ (unpublished manuscript, Duke University, 2007)Google Scholar.

⁹ However, see: Burden, Barry, The Personal Roots of Representation (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2007)Google Scholar.

¹⁰ For example, Shafer, Byron E. and Johnston, Richard G. C., ‘The Transformation of Southern Politics Revisited: The House of Representatives as a Window’, British Journal of Political Science, 31 (2001), 601–625CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

¹¹ However, see: Hood, M. V. III, Kidd, Quentin and Morris, Irwin L., ‘Of Byrd[s] and Bumpers: Using Democratic Senators to Analyse Political Change in the South, 1960–1995’, American Journal of Political Science, 43 (1999), 465–487Google Scholar.

¹² Uncertainty due to constituency change has also been applied in the context of redistricting in the United States. For example, see: Murphy, Chad and Yoshinaka, Antoine, ‘Are Mapmakers Able to Target and Protect Congressional Incumbents? The Institutional Dynamics of Electoral Competition’, American Politics Research, 37 (2009), 955–982CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Yoshinaka, Antoine and Murphy, Chad, ‘Partisan Gerrymandering and Population Instability: Completing the Redistricting Puzzle’, Political Geography, 28 (2009), 451–462CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Yoshinaka, Antoine and Murphy, Chad, ‘The Paradox of Representation: How Partisan Mapmakers Foster Competition but Disrupt Representation’, Political Research Quarterly (forthcoming)Google Scholar.

¹³ For example, see: McElroy, Gail and Benoit, Kenneth, ‘Party Groups and Policy Positions in the European Parliament’, Party Politics, 13 (2007), 5–28CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Peress, Michael, ‘Candidate Positioning and Responsiveness to Constituent Opinion in the U.S. House of Representatives’ (unpublished manuscript, University of Rochester, 2008)Google Scholar; and Poole, Keith T. and Rosenthal, Howard, Congress: A Political-Economic History of Roll Call Voting (New York: Oxford University Press, 1997)Google Scholar.

¹⁴ Fenno, Richard F. Jr, Senators on the Campaign Trail (Norman: University of Oklahoma Press, 1996), p. 277Google Scholar.

¹⁵ Kingdon, John, Congressmen's Voting Decisions, 3rd edn (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1989)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

¹⁶ For example, Calvert, Randall L., ‘Robustness of the Multidimensional Voting Model: Candidate Motivations, Uncertainty, and Convergence’, American Journal of Political Science, 29 (1985), 69–95CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Hinich, Melvin J. and Munger, Michael C., Ideology and the Theory of Political Choice (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1996)Google Scholar. Calvert finds that under uncertainty, candidates would still be likely to converge, though not under some conditions (i.e., uncertainty combined with extreme personal policy preferences for the candidates and motivations based on both winning and policy).

¹⁷ Calvert, , ‘Robustness of the Multidimensional Voting Model’, p. 86Google Scholar.

¹⁸ For example, Fenno, Richard F. Jr, Congressmen in Committees (Boston, Mass.: Little, Brown, 1973)Google Scholar; and Burden, The Personal Roots of Representation.

¹⁹ Non-median positions are also likely when legislators appeal to various subconstituencies. For example, see: Bishin, Benjamin G., ‘Constituency Influence in Congress: Do Subconstituencies Matter?’ Legislative Studies Quarterly, 25 (2000), 389–415CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Bishin, Benjamin G., Tyranny of the Minority: The Subconstituency Politics Theory of Representation (Philadelphia: Temple University Press, 2009)Google Scholar. Even under this framework, however, legislators who are uncertain about the location of those subconstituencies should appear more inconsistent than legislators who have more certainty about the preferences of various groups.

²⁰ Van Houweling, Robert P., ‘Legislators’ Personal Policy Preferences and Partisan Legislative Organization’ (doctoral dissertation, Harvard University, 2003)Google Scholar.

²¹ For example, Lawrence Evans, C., ‘How Senators Decide’, in Bruce I. Oppenheimer, ed., U.S. Senate Exceptionalism (Columbus: Ohio State University Press, 2002), pp. 262–282Google Scholar; Fenno, Richard F. Jr, Home Style: House Members in Their Districts (Boston, Mass.: Little, Brown, 1978)Google Scholar; Kingdon, Congressmen's Voting Decisions; and Kollman, Ken, Miller, John H. and Page, Scott E., ‘Political Parties and Electoral Landscapes’, British Journal of Political Science, 28 (1998), 139–158CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

²² Sulkin, Tracy, Issue Politics in Congress (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Evans, , ‘How Legislators Decide’, p. 272Google Scholar.

²³ Espino and Canon, ‘Vote Switching in the U.S. House’, examine legislator uncertainty over the content of specific roll calls to explain why legislators switch their votes on the same roll calls. Our study differs, as we focus on the uncertainty legislators have about constituent preferences and on the resulting ideological inconsistency.

²⁴ Fox, Justin, ‘Government Transparency and Policymaking’, Public Choice, 131 (2007), 23–44CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

²⁵ In some ways, a large increase in a new voter group is similar to a ‘surprise’ that occurs through experiential learning. For example, Cohen, Michael D. and Axelrod, Robert, ‘Coping with Complexity: The Adaptive Value of Changing Utility’, American Economic Review, 74 (1984), 30–42Google Scholar.

²⁶ Hinich, Melvin J. and Munger, Michael C., Analytical Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997), p. 119CrossRefGoogle Scholar. See also Coughlin, Peter J., Probabilistic Voting Theory (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992), pp. 19–20CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

²⁷ Hinich and Munger, Ideology and the Theory of Political Choice (pp. 137–8).

²⁸ Hinich and Munger, Ideology and the Theory of Political Choice.

²⁹ The types of positions taken in a campaign that are empty and not part of roll-call voting are distinct from roll-call votes as legislators are unable to control the agenda and timing of roll-call votes. See Grose, Christian R. and Middlemass, Keesha M., ‘Listen to What I Say, Not How I Vote: Congressional Support for the President in Washington and at Home’, Social Science Quarterly, 91 (2010), 143–167CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Middlemass, Keesha M. and Grose, Christian R., ‘The Three Presidencies? Legislative Position-taking in Support of the President on Domestic, Foreign, and Homeland Security Policies in the 107th Congress’, Congress & the Presidency, 34 (2007), 57–80CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Grose, Christian R., ‘Bridging the Divide: Interethnic Cooperation, Minority Media Outlets, and the Coverage of Latino, African-American, and Asian-American Members of Congress’, Harvard International Journal of Press/Politics, 11 (2006), 115–130CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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³¹ Shepsle, Kenneth A., ‘The Strategy of Ambiguity: Uncertainty and Electoral Competition’, American Political Science Review, 66 (1972), 555–568CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

³² While not a part of our theory, it is possible that voters may have a preference for inconsistent or ambiguous behaviour from their legislators. For example, Tomz, Michael and Van Houweling, Robert P., ‘The Electoral Implications of Candidate Ambiguity’, American Political Science Review, 103 (2009), 83–98CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

³³ Kollman, , Miller, and Page, , ‘Political Parties and Electoral Landscapes’, p. 143Google Scholar.

³⁴ For example, Fenno, Home Style.

³⁵ For example, Shepsle suggests that incumbents cannot be ambiguous as they have a pre-existing record; we argue that incumbent ambiguity can be achieved to some extent via inconsistency. See Shepsle, ‘The Strategy of Ambiguity’.

³⁶ Theoretically, the new voter could be located anywhere along the dimension. In the case we examine later, senators may have surmised that newly enfranchised African-American voters were not on the far right. Of course, if a legislator surmised that black voters are located somewhere on the left side of the spectrum, then (in Figure 2) there will still be uncertainty over the location of the median compared to the scenario with no new voters, but this uncertainty space would be smaller than the more general scenario presented in the figure. Further, while the partisan preferences of black voters are generally known to legislators, there is little evidence that elected officials have in-depth knowledge of the ideological or issue preferences of these new voters.

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³⁸ For example, Brady and Rohde, ‘When Good Predictions Go Bad’; Doriean, Charles and Page, Scott, ‘Is McCain a Maverick? And What is a Maverick Anyway?’ (unpublished manuscript, University of Michigan, 2008)Google Scholar; Lauderdale, Benjamin E., ‘Unpredictable Voters in Ideal Point Estimation’, Political Analysis, 18 (2010), 151–171CrossRefGoogle Scholar; McCarty, Nolan, Poole, Keith and Rosenthal, Howard, ‘McCain for president? A conservative–liberal oscillation cements his maverick reputation’, San Diego Union-Tribune (31 August 2008); and Richman, ‘Uncertainty and the Prevalence of Committee Outliers’Google Scholar.

³⁹ Poole and Rosenthal, Congress, p. 32; and McElroy and Benoit, ‘Party Groups and Policy Positions in the European Parliament’.

⁴⁰ We also estimated regression models with dependent variables measuring misclassification rates based on three- and four-dimensional models of voting, and the results were substantively the same as the two-dimensional results we present here. This alleviates concerns that the presence of additional dimensions may be driving our results (e.g., what if some legislators are voting consistently on an unobserved third dimension?). We ruled out that possibility by estimating models with misclassified votes using Optimal Classification (OC) scores in three and four dimensions as the dependent variable, and our inferences remain unchanged (see online appendix, which may be viewed at http://www.journals.cambridge.org/jps).

⁴¹ For more details, see: Poole and Rosenthal, Congress; and Brady and Rohde, ‘When Good Predictions Go Bad’.

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⁴³ Could Long's inconsistency in Congress during the mid-1960s have also been fuelled by idiosyncratic factors such as his heavy drinking, which provoked ‘erratic and boisterous behaviour’ on his part? See Mann, Robert, Legacy to Power: Senator Russell Long of Louisiana (New York: Paragon, 2003 [1992]), p. 288Google Scholar. We leave this question for others to answer as alcohol consumption is not part of our theory of legislator inconsistency.

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⁴⁵ Data on changes in black electoral strength are not available nationally for this entire time period, but are available for the southern states from 1960 onwards. Southern states are identified as Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.

⁴⁶ The average southern senator cast 596 non-unanimous roll-call votes per congress during that period.

⁴⁷ We use census figures during census years and census population estimates for intervening years.

⁴⁸ This measure is from Hood, Kidd and Morris, ‘Of Byrd[s] and Bumpers’.

⁴⁹ This measure is ideal as it assesses both the change in the state's black voter population over a two-year time period and the relative size of the enfranchised and mobilized black population.

⁵⁰ See David, Paul T., Party Strength in the United States, 1872–1970 (Charlottesville: University of Virginia Press, 1972)Google Scholar; Hood, Kidd and Morris, ‘Of Byrd[s] and Bumpers’; and Lamis, Alexander P., The Two-party South (New York: Oxford University Press, 1988)Google Scholar. We are grateful to Trey Hood for sharing these political competition data and the black electoral strength data.

⁵¹ See Shafer, Byron E. and Johnston, Richard, The End of Southern Exceptionalism: Class, Race, and Partisan Change in the Postwar South (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 2006)CrossRefGoogle Scholar. To construct this measure, we read the biographies of all senators in the Congressional Biographical Directory, which detail their places of birth and residencies through college (we also referred to other biographical sources when needed). We also employed alternative measures of the cosmopolitan variable (e.g., coding senators as non-natives or natives of the state they represent), and the results were substantively the same as those we present here. We also estimated a model without this variable, and the remaining results were consistent (see online appendix, which may be viewed at http://www.journals.cambridge.org/jps).

⁵² Poole and Rosenthal, Congress, pp. 31–3.

⁵³ Alternatively, we also estimated a regression with fixed effects for each congress (reported in Table 3).

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⁵⁶ While this variable is theoretically relevant, in the South during the time period examined it amounts to a dummy variable for Harry Flood Byrd Jr. (I-Virginia), who switched from Democrat to Independent in 1970. For more on party switchers, see: Grose, Christian R. and Yoshinaka, Antoine, ‘The Electoral Consequences of Party Switching by Incumbent Members of Congress, 1947–2000’, Legislative Studies Quarterly, 28 (2003), 55–75CrossRefGoogle Scholar; McElroy, Gail and Benoit, Kenneth, ‘Party Policy and Group Affiliation in the European Parliament’, British Journal of Political Science, 40 (2010), 377–398CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Yoshinaka, Antoine, ‘House Party Switchers and Committee Assignments: Who Gets ‘What, When, How?’, Legislative Studies Quarterly, 30 (2005), 391–406CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Yoshinaka, Antoine, ‘Party Building Through Conversion’, in Charles S. Bullock III and Mark J. Rozell, eds, Oxford Handbook of Southern Politics (New York: Oxford University Press, forthcoming)Google Scholar; and Yoshinaka, Antoine, Crossing the Aisle: Party Switching by U.S. Legislators in the Postwar Era (unpublished manuscript, American University, 2011)Google Scholar. Since Byrd caucused with the Democrats even after affiliating as an independent, we estimated the results with Byrd coded as a Democrat and therefore no third-party dummy, and the results were nearly identical to those presented later (see online appendix, which may be viewed at http://www.journals.cambridge.org/jps).

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⁵⁸ Given the presence of interactive terms, the computation of the marginal effects of changes in black electoral strength (X ₃) for a Democratic senator is based on varying all values of the relevant constitutive and interaction terms.

⁵⁹ We also estimated a model that included a three-way interaction between black electoral strength, Democrat and competitiveness (and all constitutive terms and two-way interactions). The results show that the combined effect of changes in black electoral strength and competitiveness is larger for Democratic than for Republican senators. Democratic senators from competitive states cast inconsistent votes when faced with changes in black electoral strength (see online appendix at http://www.journals.cambridge.org/jps).

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⁶² We also re-estimated Models 1 and 4 using generalized least squares (GLS) with an AR(1) process and the results were similar to those presented in the text (see online appendix at http://www.journals.cambridge.org/jps).

⁶³ We used this alternative measure as the dependent variable in regressions with the same independent variables as those reported earlier in the article, and the results were substantively similar.

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