This work was supported by a graduate fellowship from Princeton University, an Andrew Mellon postdoctoral instructorship at the California Institute of Technology, and the Zentrum für interdisziplinäre Forschung der Universität Bielefeld. I am grateful for comments and criticisms received on earlier versions of the manuscript from Diane Campbell, I. B. Cohen, Lorraine Daston, C. C. Gillispie, Ian Hacking, Donald MacKenzie, John Servos, Stephen Stigler, Geoffrey Sutton, and Norton Wise.

The following abbreviations will be used: NMB: Nouveaux mémoires de l'académic royale des sciences et belles-lettres de Bruxelles (after 1840, de Belgique); AO: Annuaire de l'observatoire de Bruxelles; BCC: Bulletin de la commission centrale de statistique (of Belgium).

Translations from works cited in French are my own.

¹ de Laplace, Pierre Simon, Philisophical Essay on Probabilities, 2d ed., New York, 1917, pp. 107–8.Google Scholar

² Quetelet, , “Notice sur Pierre-Joseph Braemt,” Annuaire de l'académie royale des sciences et belles-lettres de Belgique, 23 (1867), 108–120, p. 108.Google Scholar The colleague of whom this was written was born just a few months after Quetelet in the same Belgian city, Ghent.

³ Quetelet, , Histoire des sciences mathématiques chez les Belges, Bruxelles, 1864, p. 312.Google Scholar

⁴ Cannon, Susan Faye, “Humboldtian Science,” in Science in Culture: The Early Victorian Period, New York, 1978.Google Scholar On Quetelet's scientific ambitions, see Quetelet, , Sciences mathématiques et physiques chez. les Belges au commencement du XIX_e siècle, Brussels, 1866, p. 9Google Scholar; Histoire (n. 3), pp. 375–6Google Scholar; Physique sociale, ou essai surle développement des facultés de l'homme, 2 vols., Brussels, 1869, t. 2, 446 ff.Google Scholar

⁵ Quetelet, , “Aperçu de l'état actuel des sciences mathématiques chex les Belges,” British Association for the Adtiancment of Science, Reports (1835), 35–59.Google Scholar

⁶ See Elkhadem, H., “Histoire de la Correspondance mathématique et physique d'après les lettres de Jean-Guillaume Garnier et Adolphe Quetelet,” Académie royale de Belgique: Bulletin de la classe des lettres et des sciences morales et politiques, [5] 64 (1978), 316–366.Google Scholar

⁷ Quetelet, , “Des lois concernant le développement de l'homme,” AO, 38 (1871), 205–216.Google Scholar

⁸ Laplace, , “Mémoire sur les probabilités” (1781), Oeuvres complètes, 14 vols., Paris, nouvelle ed., 1878–1912, t. 9, 383–485Google Scholar; “Mémoire sur les approximations qui sont fonctions de très grands nombres” (1785), Ibid., t. 10, 195–338; “Sur les naissances, les mariages, et les morts à Paris dépuis 1771 jusqu'en 1784, et dans toute l'étendue de la France pendant les années 1781 et 1782” (1786), Ibid., t. 11, 35–46.

⁹ Quetelet, , “Notice scientifique,” written for his own book, Sur l'homme (n. 49), and published in AO, 7 (1840), 230–247, p. 230.Google Scholar

¹⁰ Typical is the Annuaire presenté au gouvernement par le bureau des longitudes, Paris. 1807 et seq.Google Scholar, published annually, which contained population figures for France and the world, tables of mortality, and the like. See also papers by Dupin, Demonferrand, Civiale, Double, Bienaymé, Mercier, Moreau de Jonnès, and Poisson, in Comptes rendus hebdomadaires des séances de l'académie des sciences (1835 et seq.)Google Scholar

¹¹ Quetelet, , “Mémoire sur les lois des naissances et de la mortalité à Bruxelles.” NMB, 3 (1826), 493–512.Google Scholar

¹² On thé tradition of Statistik see John, Vincenz, Geschichte der Statistik, Bd. 1, Stuttgart, 1884Google Scholar, and, in relation to Quetelet, Hankins, Frank H., Adolphe Quetelet as Statistician, New York, 1908, ch. 2.Google Scholar

¹³ See Hacking, Ian, “Biopower and the Avalanche of Printed Numbers,” Humanities in Society, 5 (1982); 279–295Google Scholar; Westergaard, Harald, Contributions to the History of Statistics, London, 1932.Google Scholar

¹⁴ See Louis René Villermé's remarks, quoted by Coleman, William, Death is a Social Disease: Public Health and Political Economy in Early Industrial France, Madison, 1982, 273–4Google Scholar, and the notorious exclusion of opinions by the London Statistical Society, discussed by Hilts, Victor L., “Aliis Exterendum, or, the Origins of the Statistical Society of London,” Isis, 69 (1978), 21–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

¹⁵ On French official statistics see Coleman, Death (n. 14); Marie-Noelle Bourguet's thesis at the Université de Reims (1983); and, more generally Koren, John, ed., The History of Statistics (1918), repr. New York, 1970.Google Scholar

¹⁶ “Introduction,” Bulletin de la societé française de statistique universelle, t. 1 (1830–1831), p. 33.Google Scholar

¹⁷ For example, Lucas, , “Influence morale de l'instruction et de la civilisation en général sur la diminution des délits et des crimes,” Bulletin universal des sciences et de l'industrie, 6ème section, Bulletin des sciences géographiques, t. 15 (1828), 105–117Google Scholar, and a number of other papers in the same journal. On Britain see Cullen, Michael, The Statistical Movement in Early Victorian Britain: The Foundations of Empirical Social Research, Sussex 1975.Google Scholar

¹⁸ Balbi, A. and Guerry, A. M., Statistique comparée de l'état de l'instruction et du nombre des crimes dans les divers arrondissements des académies et des cours de France, Paris, 1828Google Scholar, a set of charts; also Guerry, A. M., Essai sur la statistique morale de la France, Paris, 1833.Google Scholar Among the more sophisticated reactions was that of DeCandolle, Alphonse, “Considérations sur la statistique des délits,” Bibliothèque universelle des sciences, belles-lettres et arts, t. 104 (1830)Google Scholar, section de litterature, 159–186; and “De la statistique criminelle,” Ibid., t. 110 (1832), 23–59. Quetelet's explanation for why the correlation suggested by Guerry's tables was false appeared in “Recherches sur le penchant au crime aux differens ages,” NMB, 7 (1832), separate pagination, pp. 26–44, 78.Google Scholar

¹⁹ Taillandier, A., (Review of) “Compte général de l'administration de la justice criminelle en France,” Revue encyclopédique, 40 (1828), 600–612, p. 612.Google Scholar

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²¹ Quetelet papers in Bibliothèque royale de Belgique, folder 2561, letter of 18 Feb., 1846.

²² de Jonnès, Alexandre Moreau, Eléments de statistique, 2me ed., Paris, 1856, pp. 45, 132.Google Scholar

²³ Poisson, Siméon-Denis, Recherches sur la probabilité des jugements, Paris, 1837.Google Scholar

²⁴ “Prospectus,” Annales d'hygiène publique et de médecine légale, 1 (1828), p. vii.Google Scholar See also Perrot, Michelle, “Premiêres mesures des faits sociaux: les débuts de la statistique criminelle en France (1790–1830),” Pour une Histoire (n. 20), 125–137.Google Scholar

²⁵ Quetelet, , Popular Instructions on the Calculation of Probabilities, (Beamish, Richard, trans.), London, 1839, p. 108.Google Scholar French ed., 1828.

²⁶ See Quetelet, “Aperçu” (n. 5); Histoire (n. 3), passim.; and various biographies in Sciences (n. 4).

²⁷ Quetelet, , “Lettre à M. le Bourgmestre, 15 dec., 1831,” AO, t. 1 (1834), 284–287Google Scholar; Mailly, Ed., “Essai sur la vie et les ouvrages de Lambert-Adolphe-Jacques Quetelet,” Ann. de l'acad. (n. 2), 41 (1875), 109–297, pp. 186–187Google Scholar; Lottin, Joseph, Quetelet: statisticien et sociologue, Paris, 1912.Google Scholar On Quetelet's politics and his ideas on revolution see Bartier, John, “Quetelet politique,” in Académie royale de Belgique, Adolphe Quetelet, 1796–1874 (Mémorial), 4 vols., Bruxelles 1974, t. 4, 20–45Google Scholar; also Reichesberg, Naüm, “Der berühmte Statistiker Adolf Quetelet, sein Leben und sein Wirken: Ein Biografische Skizze,” Zeitschrift für schweizerische Statistik, 32 (1896), 418–460.Google Scholar

²⁸ Quetelet, , “Recherches sur la loi de la croissance de l'homme,” NMB, 7 (1832), separate pagination, p. 2.Google Scholar

²⁹ Quetelet, , “Recherches sur le poids de l'homme aux differens ages,” NMB, 7 (1832), separate pagination, pp. 11–12.Google Scholar

³⁰ Quetelet, , “loi de croissance” (n. 28), p. 2.Google Scholar

³¹ Laplace, , Essay (n. 1), p. 108.Google Scholar

³² Quetelet, , “loi de croissance” (n. 28), p. 4.Google Scholar

³³ Quetelet, , “penchant au crime” (n. 18), p. 80.Google Scholar

³⁴ Quetelet, , “De l'influence de libre arbitre de l'homme sur les faits sociaux,” BCC, 3 (1847), 135–155, p. 136.Google Scholar

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³⁶ For example, to Rehnisch, Eduard, “Zur Orientierung über die Untersuchungen und Ergebnisse der Moralstatistik,” Zeitschrift für Philosophie und philosophische Kritik, 68 (1876), 213–264; 69 (1876), 43–115.Google Scholar

³⁷ Quetelet, , “Recherches statistiques sur le Royaume des Pays-Bas,” NMB, 5 (1829), 1–57, p. 28Google Scholar; Guerry, , Essai (n. 18), p. 11.Google Scholar

³⁸ Quetelet, , “Sur la statistique morale et les principes qui doivent en former la base,” NMB, 21 (1848), separate pagination, p. 4.Google Scholar

³⁹ Quetelet, , “libre arbitre” (n. 34), p. 136.Google Scholar

⁴⁰ See, for example, Quetelet, , “Recherches” (n. 37), p. iiGoogle Scholar, a typical bit of rhetoric in which statistical research is applauded for ridding us “of the idea that events whose causes we cannot directly perceive are produced by chance.”

⁴¹ Merz, J. T., “On the Statistical View of Nature,” in A History of European Thought in the Nineteenth Century, 4 vols., New York, 1965, vol. 2, 548–626Google Scholar; also Porter, T. M., “A Statistical Survey of Gases: Maxwell's Social Physics,” Historical Studies in the Physical Sciences, 12 (1981), 77–116CrossRefGoogle Scholar; idem., The Calculus of Liberalism: The Development of Statistical Thinking in the Social and Natural Sciences of the Nineteenth Century, PhD. dissertation, Princeton, 1981.Google Scholar

⁴² See Daston, Lorraine J., The Reasonable Calculus: Classical Probability Theory, 1650–1840, PhD. dissertation, Harvard, 1979, 443–466.Google Scholar

⁴³ Quetelet, , “penchant au crime” (n. 18), p. 4.Google Scholar

⁴⁴ Quetelet, , Du système social (n. 35), p. 104.Google Scholar

⁴⁵ Quoted in Shoen, Harriet H., “Prince Albert and the Application of Statistics to Problems of Government,” Osiris, 5 (1938), 276–318, pp. 286–7.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

⁴⁶ Quetelet, , “poids de l'homme (n. 29), p. 2.Google Scholar

⁴⁷ Halbwachs, Maurice, La théorie de l'homme moyen: Essai sur Quetelet et la statistique morale, Paris, 1913, p. 6.Google Scholar

⁴⁸ Cousin, Victor, Cours de philosophie: Introduction à l'histoire de la philosophie, Paris, 1828, 13me Lecon, pp. 36, 42–43.Google Scholar

⁴⁹ Quetelet, , Sur l'homme et le développement de ses facultés, ou essai de physique sociale, 2 vols., Bruxelles, 1836, t. 2Google Scholar; Cousin, , Cours (n. 48), Cours, 10me Lecon, pp. 6–7.Google Scholar

⁵⁰ Quetclet, , Théorie des probabilitiés, Brussels 1853, p. 49Google Scholar; Du système social (n. 35), p. 197.Google Scholar

⁵¹ Quetelet, , Sur l'homme (n. 49), t. 1, p. 237.Google Scholar

⁵² Quetelet, , Du système social (n. 35), p. 110.Google Scholar

⁵³ Quetelet, , “penchant au crime” (n. 18), p. 16.Google Scholar

⁵⁴ Cousin, , Cours (n. 48), 8me Lecon, p. 10.Google Scholar

⁵⁵ Hagen, G. H. L., Grundzüge der Wahrscheinlichkeits-Rechnung, Berlin, 1837.Google Scholar

⁵⁶ Fourier, Joseph, Analytical Theory of Heat, Freeman, Alexander, trans., New York, 1945, pp. 32, 460–1.Google Scholar

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⁵⁸ Hilts, Victor L., “Statistics and Social Science,” in Giere, R. N., Westfall, R. S., eds., Foundations of Scientific Method: The Nineteenth Century, Bloomington, 1973, 206–233.Google Scholar

⁵⁹ Quetelet, , Lettres à S. A. R. le duc régnant de Saxe-Coburg eí Gotha sur la théorie des probabilités, appliquées aux sciences morales et politiques, Brussels, 1846Google Scholar, lettre XX; also Quetelet, , “Sur l'appréciation des documents statistiques, et en particulier sur l'appréciation des moyennes,” BCC, 2 (1844)Google Scholar. See also Gillispie, C. C., “Intellectual Factors in the Background of Analysis by Probabilities,” Crombie, A. C., ed., Scientific Change, New York, 1963, 431–453Google Scholar; Buck, Peter, “From Celestial Mechanics to Social Physics: Discontinuity in the Development of the Sciences in the Early Nineteenth Century,” in Jahnke, H. N., Otte, M., eds., Epistemological and Social Problems of the Sciences in the Early Nineteenth Century, Dordrecht, 1981, 19–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

⁶⁰ Quetelet, , Anthropométrie, ou mesure des différentes facultés de l'homme, Brussels, 1871, p. 253.Google Scholar

⁶¹ The problem of homogeneity was often raised, e.g. by Say, J. B., “De l'objet et de l'utilité des statistiques,” Revue encyclopédique, 35 (1827), 529–553, p. 548.Google Scholar The best-known critique of the coherence of the idea of l'homme moyen is Cournot, A. A., Exposition de la théorie des chances et des probabilités, Paris, 1843, p. 214.Google Scholar Stephen Stigler discusses these matters in “The Measurement of Uncertainty in Nineteenth-Century Social Science,” Heidelberger, Michael et al. , eds., Probability Since 1800: Interdisciplinary Studies of Scientific Development, Bielefeld, 1983, 131–138.Google Scholar

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⁶⁴ Porter, , Calculus of Liberalism (n. 41).Google Scholar